DAILY ESFM: Data diverges; latest legacy loan deal announced
* Data diverges across regions
* Latest Irish legacy loan RMBS announced
* Bridgepoint may refi and Investcorp liquidate CLOs
The latest data releases across regions reflected differing performance and outlooks. The drop in EU industrial production was more severe than anticipated, sinking to -2.8% from -0.1%, showing a much deeper contraction than the -2% forecasted. That -0.1% figure was also revised lower from 0.1%.
The monthly figure showed a drop to -2%, versus a forecast of -1.4%, from 1.5%, which was revised lower too, from 1.8%.
GDP figures, however, were confirmed at 0.4% for the euro area and 0.3% for the EU in Q3 2024, with the annual rates at 0.9% and 1% respectively. Employment, meanwhile, added another 0.2%, up from 0.1% (revised lower from 0.2%) on the quarter, while the annual gain was 1% from 0.9% (revised up from 0.8%).
The industrial production results certainly add to the weight of arguments for rate cuts. And the ECB minutes also showed that “the disinflationary process was well on track”, although “indicators of economic activity had surprised somewhat to the downside, further weighing on the inflation outlook.”
See here for more on IGM’s assessment of the ECB minutes.
In the US, Thursday’s PPI announcements showed the y-o-y rate at 2.4% from 1.9% and the annual figure ticking up to 0.2% from 0.1%. The core numbers were 3.1% from 2.9% and 0.3% from 0.2%.
Jobless claims, meanwhile, were slightly lower than forecast at 217k from 221k, while the four-week average and continuing claims numbers were also down.
In the UK, GDP for the month of September shrank by 0.1%, when no change from 0.2% was forecast. The Q3 figure was lower than expected too, at 0.1% from 0.5%, dropping below the forecast of 0.2%. The annual rate, however, met the forecast of 1%, up from 0.7%.
Latest legacy loan RMBS announced
In the RMBS market, a new Irish deal has been announced via Morgan Stanley. Shamrock Residential 2024-1 is backed by a legacy portfolio with WA seasoning of 17.6-years. Arrears over 3-months are at 18.6% and the WA coupon is 4.8%. The structure has a yield supplement overcollateralisation feature which boosts the WA coupon by up to 50bp before the January 2028 FORD and 100bp after.
Four tranches are offered and two are ‘call desk’. At the top is a EUR219.4m 2.49-year Triple A with a coupon of 1mE+110bp. The remaining notes have 3.16-year WALs.
This includes EUR15.4m of Double As at 160bp, EUR10.7m of Single As at 220bp and EUR10m of Triple Bs at 300bp. The ‘call desk’ notes are EUR8.4m of Double Bs at 425bp and EUR10m of Single Bs at 550bp.
Pricing is expected the week of 25 November.
The announcement came just two days after Morgan Stanley preplaced the bulk of Kinbane 2042-RPL2, which refinanced the portfolio in Shamrock Residential 2022-1.
That deal printed with EUR326.92m of 2.42-year Triple As at 110bp. There were also five 3.05-year notes. The EUR20.29m Double As priced at 160bp, the EUR8.54m Single As at 265bp, the EUR10.68m BBB/A- bonds at 350bp (325bp at 99.31), the EUR7.47m BB/BBB+ notes at 500bp (425bp at 97.99) and the EUR16.02m B-/BB line at 625bp (525bp at 97.36).
Bridgepoint may refi and Investcorp liquidate
Refinancing options are being considered for Bridgepoint CLO IV which may lead to lead to an optional redemption of some or all the notes, according to a notice. The deal priced in Dec 2022 for Bridgepoint Credit Management via Barclays with Triple As at a margin of 3mE+220bp. The non-call period ends 20 January 2025 and the reinvestment period 20 January 2027.
And options are being assessed which may lead to the liquidation of Harvest CLO VIII for Investcorp, according to a notice. The deal priced in February 2014 and was partially refinanced in January 2017 before being reset in Jan 2018. The reinvestment period January 2022.
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