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Richard Clayton’s take on six scenarios for shipping in 2020


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"The thing about enforcement is that IMO has stated categorically there will be immediate fines for non-compliance: no ifs, no buts, no experience-building phase. While IMO still has to finalise a standard reporting format that owners can resort to in cases of non-availability of compliant fuel oil, known as FONARs, enforcement otherwise will be strict. So..."

These are the responses in full of Lloyd's List's Chief Correspondent, Richard Clayton, to the scenarios outlined in our article, Six Scenarios for Shipping in 2020. Clayton extends his analysis beyond ULSFO and MGO to include the likely outcomes for vessels using LNG as a marine fuel and scrubbers.

The scenarios are as follows.

  • The limited fuel availability, low enforcement scenario.

  • The limited fuel availability, high enforcement scenario.

  • The high MGO, low ULSFO scenario.

  • The low MGO, high ULSFO scenario.

  • The adequate fuel availability, low enforcement scenario.

  • The adequate fuel availability, high enforcement scenario.


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