By the start of the next decade, estimates put annual AR/VR sales anywhere from $90 billion to $120 billion. While VR is leading right now, expectations are that AR will account for well over half of those estimates. The driver? Not video games and entertainment but enterprise solutions tethered to the Internet of Things and geared toward helping workers process data. Nicholas Rossolillo, The Motley Fool, March 18 2017
VR is set to "reshape business as we know it"
Earlier this year Techcrunch proposed that VR is set to “reshape business as we know it” and current market research supports that opinion. Research firm Tractica forecasts that “the market for enterprise VR hardware and content will grow from $592.3 million in 2016 to $9.2 billion by 2021” and IDC’s statistics show: “AR headsets grow from $209 million in 2016 to $48.7 billion in 2021” and “VR headsets grow from $2.1 billion in 2016 to $18.6 billion in 2021.”
Market for enterprise VR to be over $9 Billion by 2021
If predictions are right, AR could someday be as commonplace as the iPhone. Apple's Tim Cook has said: we will all "have AR experiences every day, almost like eating three meals a day. It will become that much a part of you," and Global Market Insights reports that the market for AR products is set to be $165 Billion by 2024. Employers would do well to keep up with societal trends, as NewCo warns "Today’s workers don’t think the workplace is smart or digitally connected enough and believe this inhibits productivity, collaboration, and efficiency". They're citing a 2016 Dell Workforce Study that shows "52% of millennials believe augmented and virtual reality applications would increase productivity".
There are a lot of impressive statistics floating around, but one might ask - how does AR or VR actually contribute in the workplace? IDC explains: “For enterprise users, AR and VR is expected to raise productivity, allowing workers to see and interact with data… instead of viewing a static image on a screen. Changes and procedures can be mapped out ahead of time before moving on to the actual work, saving companies two precious resources: time and cost. Vertical markets, such as manufacturing and design, health care, transportation, and retail stand to benefit the most.”
Virtual Reality and Augmented Reality in shipping and maritime is coming (if it's not already here for your organization). Tim Lodder, Director of Maritime Development at XVR Simulation explains its importance in this LinkedIn post: “Virtual reality makes it easy to reconstruct past incidents to create learning experience for the future. It also enables you to create realistic scenarios of safety risks that are very sector-specific. This way virtual reality enables to lay a solid foundation for safety and situational awareness on vessels and platforms.” There are several companies out there researching or utilizing virtual reality or augmented reality solutions for maritime. The shortlist includes: Transas Marine, MarineTraffic, FEO, Shipbuilder, VStep, IBR Sistemi, XVR Simulation, Unigene, Alphatron, KVH Videotel, Wärtsilä, Rolls-Royce (in conjunction with VTT Technical Research Centre) and multiple Universities including a project from University of Turku (in conjunction with Lloyd's Register, Nokia and STX Finland Oy) and WAVE 1.0, WAVE 2.0, IMAGINE and SPACEman (research by Gordon Meadow and several others) at the School of Maritime Science and Engineering, Southampton Solent University.
Could AR (or VR) be instrumental in closing the seafarer skills gap?
Smart ships, and advances in technology in general are demanding a better educated seafarer – mimicking a similar phenomenon occurring in Global manufacturing right now. HBR writes: “a majority of (US) manufacturing jobs now require partial or full college education, which is in stark contrast with the situation at the start of the 21st century”. Basically, HBR sees augmented reality as a win-win situation for workers and companies: “We believe that AR technologies will be instrumental in closing the skill gap that is responsible for the shortage of skilled manufacturing workers. Because AR will allow more workers to do high-skill jobs, and improve their performance in this work, we are optimistic that industrial productivity will grow and that this will ultimately translate into higher wages.” Can this same analysis be applied to the seafarer skills gap – namely the officer shortage predicted by the recent BIMCO/ICS Manpower report?
"Upskilling technologies, a partnership between humans and smart machines, can augment workers’ abilities, resulting in dramatically improved performance, greater safety, and higher worker satisfaction."
Virtual reality and augmented reality technologies are being tested at Boeing and GE to increase worker productivity and level of expertise. The Harvard Business Review makes the point that we shouldn't be concerned about machines taking jobs from humans, but instead embrace these emerging technologies as “one of the most important waves of innovation”. HBR’s Magid Abraham and Marco Annunziata write: “Upskilling technologies, a partnership between humans and smart machines, can augment workers’ abilities, resulting in dramatically improved performance, greater safety, and higher worker satisfaction.” As the shipping and maritime industry is now struggling with seafarer recruitment and retention, these capabilities may be very valuable indeed. HBR continues: “wearable AR devices are now being used in manufacturing and industrial settings and can boost workers’ productivity on an array of tasks the first time they’re used, even without prior training” - in one case performance was improved 34%.
I spoke to someone who is working hard to bring seafarer education and training into the 21st century with his research on VR - Gordon Meadow. Meadow, a Senior Lecturer at Warsash Maritime Academy/Solent University and pioneer in his field, was awarded a Vice-Chancellors Scholarship from the University of Southampton specifically for his current research on “Redefining Seafarer Pedagogy - Impacts of Autonomous Vehicles on Seafarer Competency”. His main research interest is in autonomous shipping and technologically influenced pedagogy, but he is also interested in topics ranging from experiential learning to immersive emulating simulation and virtual reality. Meadow has collaborated with many industry leaders, including Garmin Europe, Oil Companies National Marine Forum (OCIMF), Rolls Royce PLC, BMT Marine Services Limited and the United Kingdom Hydrographic Office.
KNect365 Maritime: Why use VR for training seafarers?
Gordon Meadow: Research indicates that the use of VR as an educational tool can increase a student’s performance and aid analytical skills development as well as help build processing skills such as critical thinking or problem solving. Communicating through interdependent collaborative exercises is also a distinct advantage. Findings also show a positive association between the use of virtual reality in education and a student’s motivational and engagement levels. Due to the nature of virtual reality, it allows for the visualisation of objects and scenarios which otherwise may not always be possible to recreate in the real world environment or may be dangerous to recreate.
KNect365 Maritime: So you’ve really sold me on VR. Are there any negatives?
We don’t want VR to become another Death by Powerpoint experience in our maritime classrooms
Gordon Meadow: Teaching inside synthetic environments must first prove its worth and be fully understood by maritime educators before it can offer the great advantages that we hope. We also need to be trained in its use, and not because it’s all about the teacher, as per normal, but because we need to understand how to get the most out of it first, and how it relates to the delivery of subject matter and learning. We don’t want VR to become another Death by Powerpoint experience in our maritime classrooms; and that’s what could happen if it's implemented incorrectly.
Rather than negatives, perhaps limitations might capture it better. In terms of the technology, there is no doubt that motion sickness, eye strain, latency, tracking accuracy and precision are all problems. In fact I’ve only mentioned a few. However, VR is still very young and these problems will be overcome, we just have to learn to circumvent the limitations. Things like low visual acceleration, keeping one’s head straight when latency is high, keeping things simply to deal with poor frame rate. There are a number of things that can be done to help with the limitations while the technology escalates.
KNect365 Maritime: Can you tell me about your current research, or is it in stealth mode?
Gordon Meadow: Stealth mode sounds cool! I’m currently reading a PhD at the University of Southampton in my spare time. The work that I’m doing will create, I hope, pedagogy that will support shore-based seafarers of the future to drive autonomous ships. My main research interests are in maritime pedagogy generally however, I have also worked on other projects, I was part of a team working on the Rolls Royce lead innovate UK MAXCMAS autonomous ships project when it first started out. At work I’m still a very active lecturer, in the UK and as a visiting lecturer in Hong Kong, but I'm also running an R and D project with Rolls Royce in Derby, called IMAGINE, which is a collaboration between Southampton Solent University and Rolls Royce PLC, focusing on how we apply immersive technologies to enable the engineering crew to perform typical duties required at a remote location rather than in situ.”
My other research includes two projects called WAVE 1.0 and 2.0, where myself and my team, ranging 4 countries are developing a best practice toolkit for synthetic teaching and learning activities for marine pedagogy. Wave 2.0 is an International Association of Maritime Universities (IAMU) funded project which will include collaboration with maritime universities in Newfoundland, Canada, Durban in South Africa and two further Maritime Universities in China.
We're also working with IT services company CSRA from the United States, evaluating their 'Virtualship' offering which is a VR based simulation tool. Our work will investigate how we might record some physiological and/or cognitive response inside the synthetic space and feed that data back through a loop to automatically augment the performance of the trainee during the simulation. We need to find funding for this project and I would welcome enquiries from interested parties.
I'm also in phase one of a 3 phase project where I have funding to develop best practice in maritime education in the use of synthetic teaching and learning activities. Phase two is an International Association of Maritime Universities (IAMU) funded project which will include collaboration with a maritime university in Newfoundland, Canada, Durban in South Africa and two further Maritime Universities in China.
Knect365 Maritime: Wow you’re all over the Globe! Can you tell me a little more specifically about your research at Warsash Maritime Academy?
Gordon Meadow: Gordon Meadow: Although I’m based on the WMA campus, specifically we sit with in the School of Maritime Science and Engineering, Southampton Solent University. I’m leading four funded studies. WAVE 1.0 and WAVE 2.0 (Working in Augmented and Virtual Environments); IMAGINE Innovation in Marine engineering dIagnostics and Feedback; and my PhD entitled, "Redefining Seafaring Pedagogy – Impacts of Autonomous Vehicles on Seafarer Competency". I didn’t want it to be the odd one out, so I’ve called it SPACEman! (Seafaring Pedagogy for Autonomous Capability Enhancement), kind of a tongue in cheek version of Seaman I guess..
WAVE 1.0 will see development of a VR based training application for the smart phone that can support teaching in the commercial maritime domain, to deliver cost-effective immersive training solutions for enhanced student engagement and experience. It’s due for completion by May 2017 and will produce: An evaluative summary of the current knowledge relating to the use of virtual reality (VR) in an educational setting and it will define the minimum set of requirements to create an immersive training environment using VR by determining the sensory modalities that need to be stimulated, and the level of fidelity required, to support effective training, from which to situate one of six case studies.
Our plan is to design and build a smartphone application (App) to be used to test six maritime industry case studies. Each case study will utilize realistic, high fidelity synthetic training scenarios in which to determine the impact on levels of learning and engagement.
WAVE 2.0 will run from May 2017 to May 2018 and will produce a thematic report in connection with the current knowledge relating to the use of virtual reality and multi-modal sensory feedback systems for education and training in comparable industries as well as examine the following areas. Task performance and feedback; Development of student engagement based learning objectives: Understanding the learner journey.
The output will be to derive a set of recommendations / toolkit of good practice for the use of synthetic teaching and learning activities based empirical data that industry, maritime regulators, training providers and other stakeholders can use to inform seafarer pedagogical practice.
The interest in VR for seafarer training is something that’s happening all over the Globe
As you mentioned, the interest in VR for seafarer training is something that’s happening all over the Globe. This study is actually a collaboration of Universities from around the Globe. WAVE 2.0 won funding from the International Association of Maritime Institutions and Southampton Solent University will be partnering with Marine Institute, School of Maritime Studies, St John’s, Canada; Maritime Studies Faculty of Applied Sciences, Durban University of Technology, South Africa; Navigation Institute of Jimei University, China and Dalian Maritime University, China.
IMAGINE is a Southampton Solent University and Rolls-Royce have launched collaborative Research and Development (R&D) to support the unmanned and partially autonomous operation of marine vessels. Running from Autumn 2016 to Spring 2018, the focus will be on applying immersive technologies to enable the engineering crew to perform typical duties required for continuous vessel operation at a remote location rather than in situ. Rolls-Royce are eager to take advantage of the breadth of expertise that the university offers including marine engineering, high-fidelity simulation, human factors and virtual reality. The outcomes will help steer future products and services in the Rolls-Royce “ship intelligence” portfolio.
Lastly, my PhD - Impacts of Autonomous Vehicles on Seafarer Competency. Potential for unmanned and autonomous control with built in failsafe human intervention is now perceivably a picture of the future for the shipping industry. This is in light of increasing tacit global demand for unmanned and more autonomous vehicles. In light of this potential, this research will answer questions concerning changes to seafarer competency requirements, resource capability and maintenance of safety culture through the determination and influences of sound pedagogy. The research primarily focusing on the notion that competency requirements will change as the application of greater autonomy escalates in the marine environment in favour of more remote operation.
