Adapting to change: Development insights from the Vancouver Real Estate Forum

The real estate development landscape has transformed dramatically over the past few years. Market volatility, policy changes, immigration swings, and regulatory complexity have created both challenges and opportunities for developers willing to adapt.

At the Vancouver Real Estate Forum, we spoke with two seasoned development leaders: Kathy Black, Head of Real Estate Development at Fiera Real Estate, who manages development funds and operations across Canada; and Eric Carlson, Core-Founder and President of Anthem Properties Group, a veteran of 40 years in the development business.

Their insights reveal how successful developers are navigating today's complex environment—and what's really driving Canada's housing challenges.

Deal structures are evolving

Kathy Black describes how market conditions over the past 24 months have fundamentally changed deal structures. "It's really a pro forma by pro forma basis exercise that we're doing. It's not your very typical standard buying land going through entitlements."

Instead, opportunities are emerging at different stages of the development cycle. "Land is now acquired at different stages, a lot of it through power of sale through banks and developers not being able to manage and continue to pay down on their financing."

For well-capitalized players like Fiera, this creates opportunity. "Opportunities present themselves for others who are better capitalized," Black explains. The key is staying nimble and responding to what the market presents rather than following a standard playbook.

Policy is driving development activity

Black emphasizes that "different municipalities are coming out with different policies" across the country, requiring constant monitoring to understand timelines and opportunities.

"The enabling policies are really what's driving a lot of that development activity and trying to reduce the timeline," she notes. Vancouver has been "at the forefront in leading a lot of that over the last three years, and we've benefited from that as well."

The focus? Understanding corridor plans, identifying which asset classes are being prioritized, and leveraging available incentives. Success requires staying in tune with policy shifts and pivoting accordingly.

Black's approach: "You have to not be static. The worst thing is to think that every single project is going to be the same. Every single process is gonna be the same. The one thing that you can guarantee is that every single day it's gonna be different, every project's gonna be different. Market conditions change, and so you have to pivot."

Understanding Canada's housing crisis: It's complicated

Eric Carlson offers a nuanced analysis of what's actually happening in Canadian housing markets. "First of all, what is the housing crisis?" he asks. "If you go back in the beginning, there was a shortage of housing and then there was an acute shortage of housing that resulted in very high rents and high condominium prices."

But now? "The crisis seems to be, well, it's unaffordable, but there's thousands of unfinished, unsold units in Toronto and a fraction of that in Vancouver."

The supply side: Regulatory overburden

Carlson identifies regulatory complexity as a fundamental supply constraint. "All levels of government have a say in what housing should be. And so they layer on like, we're gonna solve climate change in the back of housing, we're gonna solve income inequality in the back of housing."

The result? "At this point in time in Metro Vancouver, in a thousand dollars worth of housing, $300 of that thousand dollars is attributable to fees." And that doesn't account for the cost of capital required to navigate lengthy approval processes.

"For developers to build homes, they have to charge, quote, a lot of money. It becomes unaffordable."

The demand side: Immigration volatility

Carlson describes a dramatic policy-driven demand shock. "Something strange happened in late '21, early '22, where the federal government just started letting in all kinds of non-permanent residents in response to maybe a perception of labor shortage because of COVID."

Between 2022 and the end of 2024, Canada gained an extra 2 million non-permanent residents. "They all needed housing and because they're students and temporary workers, they typically go to the rental market and they drive that. So what that did, it took the vacancy rate to zero, drove rents way high."

Developers responded by building more housing—projects that take three to four years to complete. But then in October 2024, "the federal government went, oh, maybe we overdid it. Let's not renew any of these visas for these extra 2 million people."

The result? "Over the next three years after that, late '24, '25, '26, and '27, we're essentially kicking those 2 million people out of the country." This disruption, Carlson argues, is "a big part of what we're reading about in the headlines when we talk about the surplus inventory in Toronto and in Vancouver."

How urban planning changed

Carlson traces the evolution of development regulation over his 40-year career. For decades, the process was relatively straightforward: "You had to get a building in accordance with a building permit. You had to get a development permit, sort of building in accordance with some sort of zoning."

But starting in the mid-2010s, "urban planning got very intrusive." Housing became a policy tool to address inequality and climate change, with rules around carbon footprint reduction and mandatory inclusionary housing.

"There's nothing wrong with low income housing, but if you're trying to build it without a subsidy from somewhere, and if it's coming from that private project, it's coming from the people who buy that project."

The challenge is compounded by inconsistency: "Different municipalities all over Canada, there's lots of new ways of regulating. People, different municipalities learn from each other, so there's a lot of policy on the fly."

Creating space in a male-dominated industry

Black addresses the challenge of being a woman in a traditionally male-dominated field. "The industry, it's not that diverse. And so how do you as a woman stand in this industry and feel like you belong or make a place for yourself?"

Her answer focuses on collaboration and confidence. "We do work alongside very collaborative peers. Even though it might be a different gender, you may look different, their inclusivity of your ideas will change that type of narrative in the future."

The key? "If you come up with a good strategy and you yourself are presenting it, that's gonna change just the future conversations. It's not so much deferring to a specific person or a specific type, but if you can come up with the strategies and you have that confidence, that's really how you create a space for yourself."

Black also advocates for earlier intervention: "Let's not just wait until everyone's in university having decided what they wanna do in their career, but really starting a little bit younger, planting that seed, having them understand that there are these different options."

The path forward: Nimbleness and risk-adjusted returns

Both Black and Carlson emphasize the need for adaptability in today's environment.

Black's approach centers on staying responsive: "Trying to be nimble and just respond to what the market is giving back to you. That's how we can drive the growth that we need." Every decision is evaluated through the lens of risk-adjusted returns, with constant measurement and adjustment.

Carlson's perspective highlights the power—and unpredictability—of public policy. "Public policy is a very, very powerful thing. It has the force of the rule of law and people have to abide by it typically." Success requires understanding not just current policy but anticipating how it might evolve.

Key takeaways for developers

Several themes emerge from these conversations:

Flexibility is essential – Standard approaches no longer work. Every project requires custom structuring based on current market conditions and available opportunities.

Policy drives opportunity – Understanding municipal enabling policies, corridor plans, and available incentives is critical to identifying where and what to develop.

Capitalization matters – Well-capitalized developers can take advantage of distressed opportunities and navigate longer approval timelines.

Immigration policy creates volatility – Dramatic swings in non-permanent resident populations have created boom-bust cycles that developers must anticipate.

Regulatory costs are real – Fees and compliance costs represent a significant portion of development costs, directly impacting affordability.

Confidence and strategy create space – Whether navigating policy complexity or breaking into the industry, clear strategies confidently executed open doors.

The development landscape of 2026 is more complex than ever, but for those willing to stay nimble, understand policy dynamics, and structure deals creatively, opportunities remain. The key is recognizing that yesterday's playbook won't work for tomorrow's projects—and being prepared to adapt accordingly.