October 16, 2025
The Union League ClubNew York, NYPreliminary Agenda Topics
Provisional Start & End Times:
October 16th: 8:00am-6:00pm
Agenda Topics
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Macro forces and monetary policy: Capital markets outlook for CRE
- How are interest rate expectations and inflation shaping capital deployment?
- What’s the impact of HR1, tariffs, and foreign capital restrictions on deal flows?
- How are lenders repricing risk across asset classes?
- What are the implications of regional bank exposure to Commercial Real Estate?
- Impact of interest rate policy on cap rates, debt service coverage ratios (DSCR), and loan sizing.
- How macro volatility is reshaping risk premiums and equity hurdle rates.
- Role of forward rate agreements (FRAs) and interest rate swaps in hedging CRE exposure
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Operator-led restructuring: Key success factors for capital solutions in financial distress
- How are operators restructuring the capital stack to preserve or recover value?
- What types of capital are being deployed by operators themselves?
- How are operators managing liquidity shortfalls through capital calls, fee deferrals, or asset sales?
- What are the most effective short-term liquidity tools being used today?
- How are operators balancing operational cash flow with debt service obligations?
- What are the key negotiation points operators are navigating with both lenders and equity partners in restructuring scenario?
- How are operators approaching loan modifications, forbearance, or discounted payoffs?
- What operational levers (lease restructuring, expense reduction etc) are being pulled to stabilize NOI?
- How are operators repositioning assets to attract new capital or refinance?
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Navigating office sector’s distress and uneven recovery
- How capital is being allocated across Class A versus Class B/C assets? Has the office market bottomed out?
- How are investors underwriting Class B/C office assets today?
- Are we seeing signs of price stabilization or further downside risk?
- What are the capital stack structures being used to reposition office assets?
- What are the key financial hurdles in office-to-residential conversions?
- Lessons learned from recent NYC conversion projects
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Servicers, special assets, special situations and strategic workouts: Extension, enforcement, or exit?
- The evolving role of special servicers and special assets in a non-CMBS-heavy cycle
- How non-bank lenders are approaching workouts vs. enforcement
- What are the most common workout structures being used?
- How are servicers handling valuation uncertainty in today’s market?
- Are they relying on appraisals, broker opinions, or market bids to guide decisions?
- Mediation strategies between borrowers and servicers
- Legal, operational, and capital market implications
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The Maturity Wall: Five years post-COVID and the refinancing reckoning
- What happens when $1.2 trillion in CRE debt comes due?
- How are lenders triaging maturing loans in today’s higher-rate environment?
- How are relationship lenders behaving differently than CMBS or non-bank lenders?
- What are the most common recapitalization structures being used to bridge the refinancing gap?
- How are valuation resets impacting refinance proceeds and LTV thresholds?
- How borrowers are navigating capital stack gaps
- What refinancing options are viable in today’s market
- The role of rescue capital, extensions, and asset sales in avoiding default
- Is this maturity wave likely to trigger a broader wave of distress, or will it be absorbed through restructuring?
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Construction, development and financing distress in high-cost markets
- What are the most common causes of development distress?
- Examining how high land, construction, labor and debt costs are stalling projects
- How is the new tax abatement law impacting sub-100 unit projects?
- What are the capital stack solutions for stalled developments?
- What’s the outlook for takeout financing and construction-to-perm loans?
- Use of completion guarantees, and cost overrun reserves
- Mezzanine rescue capital and preferred equity waterfalls
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Multifamily under pressure: Financing rent-stabilized and market-rate assets in a shifting landscape
- How are investors and operators navigating financing challenges, political risk, and operational complexity across urban and suburban markets?
- How are investors underwriting rent-stabilized and market-rate assets amid regulatory and economic uncertainty?
- What financing structures are viable for assets with capped income or softening fundamentals?
- How are operators using preferred equity, rescue capital, or seller financing to bridge capital gaps?
- Are local and regional lenders still active in suburban and secondary markets?
- How are owners managing CapEx, tenant turnover, and compliance in stabilized portfolios?
- What are the most common pitfalls in acquiring or repositioning these assets?
- Structuring deals with low-leverage senior debt and creative equity solutions
- Are there viable exit strategies in markets with limited rent growth or political headwinds?
- Comparing NYC versus other market scenarios
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Rescue capital and capital stack reconstitution: Structuring for survival
- What are the latest trends in preferred equity, mezz, and hybrid structures?
- How are lenders and borrowers negotiating recapitalizations?
- What’s the role of non-bank lenders and private credit funds?
- Preferred equity versus. participating debt: when and why
- Intercreditor agreements and waterfall resets
- Use of convertible debt and equity kickers in recapitalizations
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Valuation gaps and appraisal risk: Structuring capital in a price discovery vacuum
- How are lenders and investors navigating appraisal mismatches in today’s market?
- How are valuation gaps affecting LTV covenants, DSCR thresholds, margin calls and loan sizing?
- What tools are being used to bridge valuation gaps: earn-outs, holdbacks, or contingent pricing?
- Are valuation gaps creating opportunities for structured capital or preferred equity?
- The implications for refinancing, recapitalization, and asset sales
- How should borrowers and lenders prepare for a prolonged period of price discovery uncertainty?
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Structurally stressed: Capital strategies for oversupplied and underperforming markets
- What are the biggest financing challenges in oversupplied Sunbelt and Midwest cities?
- How is capital being structured and restructured in markets facing absorption risk, limited liquidity, and slower economic momentum?
- How are investors underwriting demand risk and absorption timelines in structurally stressed markets?
- Are we seeing more distress in these metros due to overbuilding, demographic shifts, or slower economic recovery?
- Are local banks and credit unions still active in these markets; and what are the typical debt terms?
- How are investors structuring deals to manage risks in underperforming metros?
- Are investors viewing these markets as opportunistic plays or value traps?
- What are the viable exit strategies in markets with limited liquidity and slower price recovery?
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Working with the lender: Workouts, modifications and refinancing in a tight credit market
- How lenders are approaching distressed borrowers in today’s market
- What are the proactive methods for borrowers to approach lenders when facing maturity or covenant issues?
- What are the most common workout structures being used today (e.g., A/B notes, rate resets, maturity extensions)?
- What refinancing options are available for borrowers facing a capital shortfall?
- How are borrowers using rescue capital, preferred equity, or mezzanine to bridge the gap?
- The legal, financial, and operational tools available for restructuring
- Successful workouts and biggest mistakes to learn from recent refinancing examples
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Retail capital markets: Repricing risk and unlocking value in a fragmented sector
- How are capital markets pricing risk across different retail formats including luxury, neighborhood centers, power centers, and malls?
- What types of capital (senior debt, mezzanine, bridge, JV equity) are available for retail repositioning and redevelopment?
- Are CMBS, net lease, and sale-leaseback structures still viable in today’s market?
- How are investors underwriting tenant durability, co-tenancy risk, and consumer behavior shifts?
- Which markets and submarkets are seeing capital inflows versus capital flight?
- What are the most common pitfalls in repositioning underperforming retail assets?
- How are lenders and investors approaching retail in NYC compared to other major metros?
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Unlocking liquidity: Creative solutions for legacy and underperforming real estate funds
- Exploring how fund managers and investors are navigating liquidity challenges in legacy and underperforming portfolios
- Evolving role of secondaries, NAV-based lending, and fund recapitalizations as tools to unlock capital and avoid distressed asset sales
- How are LPs pricing and executing secondary sales in today’s real estate market?
- What transparency and governance challenges arise in GP-led secondaries?
- Are secondaries effectively reducing forced asset sales and creating new liquidity pathways?
- How are funds managing liquidity constraints tied to legacy portfolios?
- Are NAV loans or GP-led solutions becoming the preferred tools to unlock trapped capital?
- What are the implications of fund-level recapitalizations for LP-GP alignment?
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Precision capital: Navigating the stack in a shifting real estate landscape
- Investor strategies across the capital stack in today’s distressed and dislocated CRE environment
- Opportunistic plays, risk pricing, and structuring mechanisms that offer downside protection and asymmetric upside
- What are the most attractive entry points in the capital stack right now?
- How are investors pricing risk in note purchases versus equity infusions?
- Are loan-to-own strategies gaining traction in this cycle?
- Where are investors finding asymmetric upside in a stabilizing market?
- What financing structures are enabling opportunistic investments?
- Are we seeing a shift from distress to dislocation; and how does that change strategy?
- How are IRR hurdles, promote structures, and preferred returns being used to align interests?
- What are the trade-offs between blind pool and deal-by-deal capital deployment?
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Financing distressed acquisitions: Creative leverage & risk allocation
- How are buyers using note-on-note, seller financing, and back leverage?
- What are the risks of acquiring through the debt stack?
- Are there new structures emerging for distressed deal financing?
- Note-on-note financing and A/B note structures
- Seller carrybacks and earn-out provisions
- Syndicated equity and co-GP promote structures
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Navigating capital and distress in niche CRE sectors: Hotels, Data centers, Healthcare & Student housing
- What are the financing structures enabling hotel-to-residential conversions, and are they still viable in today’s market?
- Are AI data centers overbuilt or undervalued; and how are investors underwriting long-term viability?
- How are healthcare assets being financed and repositioned; what role do HUD 232/242 and tax credits play?
- What’s driving capital flows into student housing, and how are ground leases and synthetic equity being used?
- Are lenders pricing risk differently across these niche sectors; and how are they managing downside protection?
- What are the risks of stranded capital or obsolescence in high-tech and specialized CRE assets?