Alex Czarnecki

Director of Geopolitical Forecasting & Scenario Analysis at Ergo | Global Intelligence

Speaker

Alex Czarnecki leads Ergo’s geopolitical forecasting and scenario analysis as Director of Analysis for the Flashpoints Forum. He oversees the firm’s data-driven, probabilistic modeling of global risks that materially affect markets, valuations, and portfolio strategy.

His recent geopolitically focused work includes forecasts on U.S. trade and tariff escalation, Russia–Ukraine war and peace pathways, cross-strait risks, and conflict in the Middle East. On the technology and infrastructure side, Alex oversees scenario analysis on data center buildout and corresponding energy grid constraints, AI-accelerated cyber risk, and digital asset adoption.

Alex regularly briefs investment committees, CIOs, and senior global leaders, and has participated in high-level war-gaming and scenario exercises with senior political and military leadership, including recent engagements with Taiwan’s political and defense leadership. He holds a B.A. from Harvard University.