The three pillars of growth: Dr. Rawaa Harati on geopolitical and macroeconomic impacts on Middle Eastern private markets

At SuperReturn Middle East 2025, an ongoing topic of discussion was the ongoing geopolitical tensions in the region and how they will continue to affect private market in MENA and the GCC. However where the US and Europe have been affected through rising interested and increased volatility, the Middle East has been chartering a different course.

According to Dr. Rawaa Harati, Founder at Kinz Consultancy and advisor to the President of Lebanon on International Economic Cooporation, the Middle East is paving towards a robus and diversified future driven by three pillars: diversification, neutrality in global engagement and strategic investment in the future. Watch her interview below to learn about how the region is strategically moving away from dependency on oil, maintaining balanced international relationships and how their forward-thnking ethos sets the stage for a future of dynamic and resilient economic growth:

Interview transcript:

With disruptive and retaliatory tariffs echoing those of the Great Depression era, shifting US-China dynamics and unpredictable policy swings, how are Gulf economies recalibrating strategies and positions?

While most of the world has been dealing with slow growth, a lot of uncertainties, high debt, the region has been writing a very different story, and I would say it comes down to three different pillars. The first one is diversification. The region learned early on that you cannot build a stable future on something as unpredictable as oil, and it's been diversifying.

We are seeing the numbers they are great. Those visions and strategies we are seeing from Vision 2030 to all the strategies that got created in the UAE in Oman. They are not just a branding exercise; they're clear roadmaps to reduce dependency on oil and create new economic engines. And believe me, it's not easy when you are sitting on so much wealth.

It is so tempting to stay comfortable, keep doing what you are doing. But the leadership here decided to do things differently, to modernise, to diversify and to invest on, on, on the long term. The second pillar is neutrality and global engagement. And I would not take this one for granted. It is one of the few regions that can trade with the United States, partner with China, invest in Africa, build ties with Asia.

And this ability to work with everyone without picking sites has opened a whole new world of opportunities and is making the region a safe having for capital. And it goes beyond economics. The region has become a very trusted diplomatic partner. We are seeing it, right? Hosting peace, peace talks mediating conflicts, leading humanitarian efforts.

And that tells you something. Finally, it's the investment in in the future. We've seen it with renewable energy, infrastructure, and logistics, and now we're seeing it again with AI. The initiatives are amazing. So, it's not waiting for the future to unfold. It is building the future and is setting the bar pretty high.

Some are saying we’re witnessing the end of globalisation in favour of more regional or national sentiments: What are your thoughts on this?

I don't think it's the end of globalisation. I think it's being reorganised. It's taken a new form, and if you look closely at the word, you could break it down into four different orders. An economic order that is shaped today by sanctions and tariffs and trade wars, and that's deciding, who trades with who, who's going to grow, who's going to be left behind.

So you do have some clusters of influence getting created. Then you have a digital order where AI chip. Data are the new frontiers of, of power. It's not about innovation anymore. It's about control and decisions that are made today by countries and by will, determine who are the winners of the future and who is gonna lag behind.

The third order is the military order. Where wars are not fought by, with tanks and with soldiers anymore. They're fought with drones, with cyber attacks and small groups that can disrupt global supply chain, as we've seen happening in the Red Sea with with the Houthis. And finally, the climate order.

You have countries betting their whole future on green transition and investing heavily in it, and other countries are. Looking at it as a joke. So the key is to adapt fast, and to be well positioned within this new landscape.

How is the geopolitical climate shaping investment interest and inflation rates in the region today?

Let me start with the US and then move into the region because that is the world's largest economy. Whatever happens there, set the tone for everywhere else. You know when with within this geopolitical landscape or the uncertainties that came with Paris, people initially predicted, a total collapse.

But markets and economies have, remained resilient, I would say. And one indicator I like to look at is a credit spread that remain very tight. And what does it mean? It means that investors, are, have confident that. Corporates and companies are going to pay back their debt.

They're not factoring in or pricing in a major default or a financial crisis. When it comes to the region. One of the challenges has been that investors look at the region, as a source of capital and liquidity, a lot like an ATM basically. But things started to change because of the great things that are the region is getting right that we've discussed earlier.

And the UAE recorded in 20 24, 40 $5 billion of FDI inflows. And that's a big increase from from previous spheres when it comes to inflation. The Fed has remained, very cautious with the, in, with, cutting interest rate despite the political pressure that it's it's getting that's because inflation has not been fully tamed yet.

The IMF is projecting global inflation to cool down from 4.2 to 3.7 percent in 2026, which, it's still above the target in many places in the world, but in the region it's relatively contained compared to many other emerging markets.