CMA Shipping Conference 40th Anniversary Edition - Day 2Wednesday, 2 April 2025

This data-lead session will take us through some of the key figures analysts are seeing around supply & demand, trade lanes, loads and capacities and what we might gleam from them.

According to BIMCO, despite stronger growth in cargo volumes during 2025, the shorter sailing distances, consequence of the presumed return to normal routings, will have a profound impact on tonne miles and therefore demand for ships.
Meanwhile, it is reported that Bunker Holding, the world’s biggest marine fuel trader, expects biofuel bunker demand to more than double in 2025 owing to the FuelEU Maritime legislation.

Let’s take a closer look at the tanker sector whilst our panel of industry leaders attempt to answer our red-thread questions.

The spiralling ocean container shipping market of recent months appears to be reaching a peak, largely due to the conflict in the Red Sea. But with ocean supply chains still under huge pressure, concerns remain over a capacity crunch in the coming months, especially if other disruptions such as China tariffs come into play.

At the same time, the industry is carrying on its decarbonization efforts and preparations for FuelEU regulations while still struggling with issues around port congestion.

Let’s hear what answers our panellists give to our three main questions.

TEU volumes at key North American ports climbed through the first seven months of 2024. Rising import totals were the main driver, as the U.S. economy remained resilient despite relatively flat retail sales. Decarbonization remains a point of pressure, as well as the ongoing issues around congestion.
The Baltimore Bridge incident shone a light on the single point of failure risk, while the tentative resolution of the labor conflict with ILA still maintains one point of contention – automation.
A lot to unpack here! Join our ports and tug operator representatives for their outlook in 2025.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecasts the global economy to grow by 3.2% 2025, largely due to a sizeable improvement in the economic outlook for the United States and for some emerging and developing economies.

BIMCO estimates that cargo volumes are expected to grow by 0.5-1.5% in 2025, while average sailing distances are expected to shorten 0.5-1.5% in 2025.

Ship deliveries are forecast to reach 32.0 and 32.4 million DWT in 2025. At the same time, recycling may gradually increase from the start of 2025, due to a comparatively weaker market.

We now turn to our speaker to hear their insights and strategies for 2025 and beyond.

Forward markets for Henry Hub futures, indicate that prices will average $3.20 per million British thermal units (mmBtu) in 2025, compared to an average of $2.22 so far this year, data from LSEG shows. If realized, that roughly 44% year-on-year price increase would be the steepest annual climb since 2022 and could worsen energy product inflation trends despite a slowdown in broader price gains in the United States.
The power and industrial demand sectors look primed for further growth in 2025 and beyond, as total national electricity consumption continues to climb and output of manufactured goods and chemicals rises.

This contours a great year for the industry but let’s turn to our industry leaders for a sense check.

As offshore wind continues to develop in the United States, significant investment in the domestic supply chain is critical to achieving U.S. clean energy goals.
The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) estimates that $10 billion has been announced or invested in the U.S. offshore wind supply chain since the beginning of 2021. However, The National Renewable Energy Laboratory estimates that an investment of at least $22 billion in ports, large installation vessels, and major manufacturing facilities will be needed to establish the U.S. offshore wind supply chain.

Forecasted global projections for offshore wind energy indicate strong market growth with more than a fivefold increase in offshore wind energy projected over the next decade. But the macroeconomic hurdles facing the first generation of commercial offshore wind energy projects continue to linger, and ongoing challenges with the deployment of those first projects make the prospects for long-term growth of offshore wind in the United States more uncertain.

It is now time to turn to our panel to hear their projections and updates.