The high-grade primary market wasted no time putting last week’s lackluster showing behind it. Issuers delivered $47.625bln across 56 tranches from 32 borrowers, well above the $30bln average estimate in our weekly poll. Most of that arrived in a front-loaded burst on Monday, when $26.475bln priced.
The strong pace also pushed the market past several milestones. Ex SSA issuance for November reached $136.175bln, surpassing the $129bln monthly estimate, and full-year volume including SSAs climbed to $1.097trl, moving above the $1.9trl yearly estimate. Ex SSA supply still needs roughly $60bln to meet its $1.65trl projection.
Borrowers moved quickly to get ahead of next week’s shortened holiday calendar, leading to a wave of investor calls early in the week. Twelve companies held calls and all of them priced a transaction, including Goldman Sachs Private Credit, Baxter International, Protective Life and Western Alliance Bank. Domestic issuers once again dominated the tape and accounted for 89% of weekly volume. Industrials led the sector mix with a 65% share, while FIG issuance stepped back to 28%.
The standout trade came from Amazon, which returned to the market for the first time since 2022. The tech giant delivered a six-part $15bln offering after drawing nearly $80bln in demand, reinforcing the strong appetite for AI-connected TMT issuance.
Pfizer kept the recent streak of M&A-linked supply intact with a $6bln seven-part deal to help fund its Metsera acquisition. It marked the fourth straight week with an M&A transaction and brought this year’s tally to 40 deals for $162.27bln, compared with 45 totaling $169bln at this point last year.
Deals were well received this week despite the heavy slate and a choppy macro backdrop. Pricing tightened an average 27.8bp from IPT levels, consistent with the broader 2024 pattern. Coverage was also solid at 3.95x times on average, supported by standout demand for Baxter International at 6.25x and VSP Optical Group at 9.4x on its debut. New issue concessions narrowed to 2.71bp, better than the 3.78bp average earlier this month.
As for the current backdrop, it was a fitting end to an otherwise volatile week in broader markets. NY Fed President Williams threw markets a lifeline Friday, contradicting many Fed colleagues by indicating his preference for a December rate cut.
Instantly, odds of a cut next month surged to 70% from 25% yesterday, essentially reversing the rise in short-term rates since the hawkish October FOMC meeting.
The rebound in stocks still left the major indices with their largest weekly decline since April.
It could have been worse. Sentiment is very fragile. The collapse in crypto and rise of the dollar suggests a decline in global liquidity and an erosion in macroeconomic activity, just as pricey valuations are being scrutinized.
More practically, the rapid evaporation of healthy (33%) year-to-date gains in Bitcoin left a mark on everyone. It’s human nature. And also an easy call for investors to retreat as the holiday season begins.
Next week should bring a meaningful pullback in activity as Thanksgiving approaches. Syndicate desks expect roughly $7bln in new issuance, most of which is slated for Monday. Poll responses were concentrated in the $5–10bln range, signaling that while supply will slow, there should still be a handful of prints before the market winds down.