CEEMEA OPEN: Eyes fixed on US-China trade talks
By Natalie RivettShareshare
9th June, 2025
- Asia stocks have risen ahead of a second round of trade talks between the US and China in London on Monday.
- The trade talks follow Trump’s telephone call with Xi last week and Beijing’s approval over the weekend to some applications for the export of rare earths - a move that could help ease tensions.
- The Chinese commerce ministry confirmed the approval of the applications without specifying which countries or industries were covered.
- The Hang Seng and Nikkei are up 1.1% and 0.9% respectively as they approach their close, although US equity futures are mildly in the red, with the S&P500 mini 0.1% softer and the Nasdaq mini -0.2%. That follows advances of 1% and 1.2%, respectively on Friday. European equity futures also point south on Monday.
- Meanwhile, the broader USD is largely softer in the wake of Friday's NFPs beat of 139k (albeit softer revisions) and firmer than expected AHE earnings in May of 0.4% m/m and 3.9% y/y.
- 10-year UST yields hover just below 4.50%, after hitting 4.52% on Friday following the non-farm payrolls report, and are nearly 20bp up from Thursday's 4-week low of 4.32%.
- Elsewhere, data out of China Monday morning revealed consumer deflation extended into a fourth month, at -0.1% y/y in May. PPI remained negative for a 32nd month and fell the most in nearly 2-years, at -3.3% y/y.
- Additionally, China’s trade surplus increased to USD 103.2bn in May, but exports missed expectations at 4.8% y/y as a drop in shipments to the US negated strong demand from elsewhere. Imports contracted further, by -3.4%.
- The European calendar offers little by way of major economic releases today. Meanwhile, the US slate is light with only April wholesale trade sales and the NY Fed's May Survey of Expectations.
- All the while, the Fed maintains its customary pre-FOMC media blackout ahead of its June 18th monetary policy decision.
- That keeps the focus fixed firmly on trade headlines and any signs of progress from the US-China talks could give markets a fresh boost for the week.
Fresh in the CEEMEA Pipeline
- No new pipeline entries
Priced Deals
- No new priced deals
On the Radar
- After Friday’s US NFPs, the next big risk event is the 17-18 June FOMC and in the meantime, that should leave a clear issuance window. However, we would still expect relatively light supply, particularly with the GCC unlikely to be active until after the Eid holiday.
- As it stands, there is just one mandate in the CEEMEA pipeline, a small EUR60mn (exp.) RegS 4NC3 Senior Unsecured transaction from Estonia’s AS LHV Group (Baa3), to be launched soon, subject to market conditions.
- The securities are expected to be rated Baa3 by Moody's.
- The issuer is available for 1-1 calls on request.
What to watch on Monday
Key data:
- US April F Wholesales Inventories (14GMT)
Key events:
- ECB’s Elderson speaks (9GMT)
- ECB's Escriva speaks (14GMT)
Wider market Sentiment
- USD Index at 98.947
- UST 2yr/10yr at 4.008%/4.496%
- Bund 2yr/10yr at 1.853%/2.564%
- Brent at $66.29brl
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