CEEMEA OPEN: Israel-Iran truce keeps primary bond window wide open
By Natalie RivettShareshare
24th June 2025
** Updates fresh in pipeline table **
- US President Trump has announced a ceasefire between Israel and Iran, and warned both countries not to violate it.
- That tentative ceasefire has left oil extending Monday’s, losses which began after Iran fired missiles at a largely empty US airbase in Qatar. Brent is currently down almost 5% to just below USD68/brl.
- European stock markets are set for a strong open, with the Eurostoxx50 futures climbing almost 2% currently, following positive sessions in the US and Asia.
- Overnight, the S&P500 and Nasdaq both finished almost 1% higher, while in Asian markets the Nikkei closed 1.14% firmer and the Hang Seng is up more than 2%.
- Israel said it had agreed to the US ceasefire proposal. Before the ceasefire took effect, Iran stated last night that it will only stop attacking if Israel did the same.
- Meanwhile, gold continues its retreat and US Treasury yields are also lower ahead of Tuesday’s 2-year note auction, with markets digesting further dovish Fed-speak.
- To this, Fed’s Bowman suggested rate cuts could come as early as July if inflation remains subdued, while Goolsbee noted the surprising lack of inflation impact from recent tariffs.
- Ahead on Tuesday, there are multiple Fed and ECB speakers, including Fed Governor Powell’s semi-annual testimony Part 1 (14GMT), which is the top billing.
- In the US, markets await the Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index, Richmond Fed's Manufacturing Index and housing price data.
- All the while, an eye will be kept on the Middle East conflict, but for now it seems, worst fears regarding a wider war in the region and oil supply disruptions have eased.
Fresh in the CEEMEA Pipeline
Date | Issuer | Ccy | Book Managers | Security | Description | Comps | At Ann. | Today |
24-Jun | Republic of Turkey | USD | DIB, ENBD, HSBC, KFH Capital, SCB | 144A/RegS | IPTs: benchmark 5yr sukuk @ 7.25%a | TURKSK |
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24-Jun | Dar Al-Arkan Sukuk Co. | USD | ADCB, ADIB, Alkhair Capital, Al Rayan Investment, Arqaam, Bank ABC, DIB, ENBD, FADB, JPM, MASHREQBANK, SCB, WARBA, Sharjah Islamic Bank | RegS | Benchmark 5yr sukuk inv calls commencing 24 Jun | |||
23-Jun | Republic of Slovenia | EUR | Barclays, BNPP, CACIB, DB, JPM, OTP | Inaugural Jul-2035 SLB inv calls 23 Jun | SLOREP |
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23-Jun | Orlen S.A. | EUR | BNPP, ING, SGCIB, DB, CaixaBank | RegS | Benchmark 7yr green inv mtgs 23-24 Jun | PKNPW |
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23-Jun | EPH Financing Int'l a.s | EUR | GSBE, ING, JPM, MUFG, SMBC | RegS | Benchmark 7yr green inv mtgs 23-24 Jun | EPEN |
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23-Jun | Czechoslovak Group a.s. | EUR | BNPP, JPM, MS | RegS | USD850mn min dual-tranche 5.5NC2 inv calls commencing 23 Jun | |||
23-Jun | Raiffeisen Bank Zrt. | EUR | GSBE, ING, JPM, RBI | RegS | EUR300mn 6NC5 green inv calls commencing 23 Jun | |||
23-Jun | Banca Transilvania S.A | RON | Alpha, BCR, BTCP, Raiffeisenbank | RegS | Benchmark sustainable 7NC6 SNP inv calls 24 & 25 Jun | BUCHAR |
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Priced Deals
Date | Issuer | Ccy | Amount (m) | Coupon | Maturity | Yield | Spread | IPTS to Pxd | Book size (m) | Coverage | NICs |
23-Jun | Turk Eximbank | USD | 500 | 6.875 | 03-07-2028 | 7.000 | -50.0 | 1900 | 3.80 | ||
23-Jun | APICORP | USD | 600 | 3.985 | 30-06-2028 | 3.985 | M+50 | -10.0 | 1000 | 1.67 | |
23-Jun | PKO Bank Polski SA | EUR | 500 | 3.625 | 6NC5 | 3.641 | M+142 | -38.0 | 1370 | 2.74 | 0 |
23-Jun | OTP Bank Nyrt | CNH | 900 | 3.500 | 3NC2 | 3.500 | 0.00 |
On the Radar
- Market fallout from the US bombing of Iranian nuclear facilities at the weekend was fairly contained on Monday, and whilst stocks traded in the red for much of the session, the primary bond window remained open.
- On Monday we saw four CEEMEA deals hit the screens (see above pipeline table) and a further opportunistic deal has emerged Tuesday morning, courtesy of Turkey. On top of this, the pipeline continues to build, which is going to make for a busy session/week.
- The Republic of Turkey is marketing a USD-benchmark 5-year (Sep-2030) 144A/RegS senior unsecured sukuk at 7.250% area, in its second outing in as many months and third in total this year – having previously focused on conventional dollar bonds.
- Dubai Islamic Bank, Emirates NBD Capital Limited, HSBC (B&D), KFH Capital and Standard Chartered Bank are Joint Lead Managers for this deal.
- Leads have circulated the following comps, consisting of both sovereign conventional bonds and sukuks with maturities across 2029-2030, for which yields range from ca. 6.50-6.80%.
- Turkey thus offering a decent pick-up at IPTs of 7.25% area, but of course, with room for this to be whittled down throughout the book building process.
Security | Ratings (M / S / F) | Sukuk (Y / N) | Years to maturity | Maturity | Size (m) | Coupon | Bid Yield |
HAZINE MUSTESARLIGI VARL 01/2029 | B1 / -- / BB- | Y | 3.6 | 29-Jan | 2,500.00 | 8.509 | 6.562 |
REPUBLIC OF TURKIYE 03/2029 | B1 / -- / BB- | N | 3.7 | 29-Mar | 2,250.00 | 9.375 | 6.518 |
REPUBLIC OF TURKIYE 04/2029 | B1 / -- / BB- | N | 3.8 | 29-Apr | 3,000.00 | 7.625 | 6.576 |
REPUBLIC OF TURKIYE 03/2030 | B1 / -- / BB- | N | 4.7 | 30-Mar | 2,000.00 | 5.25 | 6.75 |
HAZINE MUSTESARLIGI VARL 04/2030 | B1 / -- / BB- | Y | 4.8 | 30-Apr | 2,500.00 | 6.5 | 6.611 |
REPUBLIC OF TURKIYE 07/2030 | B1 / -- / BB- | N | 5.1 | 30-Jul | 2,500.00 | 9.125 | 6.806 |
- Joining the pipeline on Tuesday, Dar Al-Arkan Real Estate Development Company, the largest listed real estate developer in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, rated B1 by Moody's (stable outlook), is looking to issue a USD-benchmark 5-year RegS fixed rate senior unsecured sukuk under Dar Al-Arkan Sukuk Company Ltd's USD2.5bn Trust Certificate Issuance Programme.
- Investor calls commence on Tuesday, for the investor presentation and virtual roadshow schedule, please see here.
- The issuer has mandated Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank PJSC, Abu Dhabi Islamic Bank, Alkhair Capital Dubai Ltd, Al Rayan Investment LLC, Arqaam Capital, Bank ABC, Dubai Islamic Bank, Emirates NBD Capital, First Abu Dhabi Bank, J.P. Morgan, Mashreq, Sharjah Islamic Bank, Standard Chartered Bank and Warba Bank as Joint Lead Managers and Bookrunners.
- The Republic of Slovenia, rated A3 (positive) / AA (stable) / A (positive), held investor calls on Monday for an inaugural EUR-denominated RegS 10-year (Jul-2035) sustainability-linked bond.
- BNP Paribas is acting as sole ESG Structuring Agent.
- The deal will have will bear a fixed-rate coupon featuring a step-up/step-down structure applied to the final coupon payment, determined by the performance against the following KPI and SPTs, selected from the Slovenian Sustainability-Linked Bond Framework.
- KPI 1: Total annual greenhouse gas emissions
- SPT 1.1: 35% decrease of total GHG emissions by 2030 relative to 2005 baseline
- SPT 1.2: 45% decrease of total GHG emissions by 2030 relative to 2005 baseline
- Interest rate Step Up: The interest rate payable on the note shall increase 50 basis points starting [settlement + 9 years] if SPT 1.1 has not been achieved and/or failure to publish the SPT Notice
- Slovenia was last in the market in January with a EUR1bn Apr-2055 bond and its previous two visits were for taps of the outstanding Mar-2034s that were first issued in January 2024 at m/s +58bp, raising EUR1.5bn. This bond was increased by EUR500mn in March 2024 and EUR750mn in September 2024, and was seen quoted bid in the secondary on Monday morning at m/s +55bp for reference.
- Polish multi-utility group Orlen S.A , rated A3 (stable) by Moody’s and BBB+ (stable) by Fitch, has hired BNP Paribas, ING and Societe Generale as Joint Global Coordinators, together with Deutsche Bank and CaixaBank as Joint Bookrunners to arrange a series of fixed income investor calls that continue Tuesday. A EUR-benchmark 7-year RegS green bond may follow.
- The notes are expected to be rated A3 by Moody’s and BBB+ by Fitch
- An amount equivalent to the net proceeds from the notes will be used to finance or refinance, in whole or in part, eligible projects and activities (including other related and supporting expenditures) in accordance with Orlen S.A’s recently updated Green Finance Framework.
- This will extend Orlen’s euro curve from a EUR500mn 4.75% Jul-2030 vanilla line that launched in July 2023 and was spotted trading at i +110bp bid by leads. The company’s only other outstanding single currency line is a EUR500mn 1.125% May-2028 green that was trading at +86bp.
- Bond Ratings Tenor Bid i-sprd (bps)
- PKNPW 1 1/8 05/27/28 A3 / NR / BBB+ 2.9Y 86
- PKNPW 4 3/4 07/13/30 A3 / NR / BBB+ 5.1Y 110
- BGOSK 3 1/4 03/18/30 A2 / NR / A- 4.7Y 76
- BGOSK 3 7/8 03/13/35 A2 / NR / A- 9.7Y 136
- BGOSK 4 1/4 03/18/37 A2 / NR / A- 11.7Y 156
- CTPNV 4 3/4 02/05/30 Baa3 / BBB- / NR 4.6Y 134
- CTPNV 3 5/8 03/10/31 Baa3 / BBB- / NR 5.7Y 149
- CTPNV 3 7/8 11/21/32 Baa3 / BBB- / NR 7.4Y 169
- CEZCP 4 1/8 09/05/31 Baa1 / A- / NR 6.2Y 136
- CEZCP 4 1/4 06/11/32 Baa1 / A- / NR 7.0Y 146
- CEZCP 4 1/8 04/30/33 Baa1 / A- / NR 7.9Y 158
- RWE 3 5/8 01/10/32 Baa2 / NR / BBB+ 6.6Y 87
- RWE 4 1/8 02/13/35 Baa2 / NR / BBB+ 9.6Y 108
- EDPPL 3 1/2 07/16/30 Baa2 / BBB / BBB 5.1Y 83
- EDPPL 3 1/2 07/21/31 Baa2 / BBB / BBB 6.1Y 97
- EDF 4 1/8 06/17/31 Baa1 / BBB / BBB+ 6.0Y 105
- EDF 4 3/4 10/12/34 Baa1 / BBB / BBB+ 9.3Y 124
- EDF 4 3/8 06/17/36 Baa1 / BBB / BBB+ 11.0Y 139
- POLAND 3 01/16/30 A2 / A- / A- 4.6Y 50
- POLAND 3 5/8 01/16/35 A2 / A- / A- 9.6Y 96
- Czech-based EPH, a diversified and vertically integrated leading pan-European utility, rated BBB- (positive) by S&P and BBB- (stable) by Fitch, is also holding investor calls for a planned EUR-benchmark 7-year RegS senior unsecured green bond.
- EPH has mandated Goldman Sachs Bank Europe SE, ING (Sole Green structurer), J.P. Morgan, MUFG and SMBC as Joint Lead Managers and Bookrunners. ING is coordinating marketing logistics.
- The bonds are expected to be rated BBB- by S&P and BBB- by Fitch and will be issued under the EUR3bn Euro Medium Term Note Programme of EPH Financing International, a.s. guaranteed by EPH.
- EPH’s Green Finance Framework and Second Party Opinion from S&P is available to view here, under section ‘Sustainability’.
- The deal roadshow presentation and investor meeting schedule can be accessed here.
- Like Orlen, EPH has just two euro benchmarks outstanding, including a EUR500mn 5.875% Nov-2029 green launched in May 2024 at m/s +310bp on a 3.2x covered book.
- That bond has since ramped tighter and was bid at i +215bp by leads pre-announcement of the new mandate.
- Pre-Announcement Indicative Bid-Side Levels vs I
- TICKER RATING COUPON MATURITY I-SPREAD
- EPEN -/BBB-/BBB- 6.651% Nov-2028 +183
- EPEN -/BBB-/BBB- 5.875% Nov-2029 +215
- Western European Utilities:
- EDF Baa1/BBB/BBB+ 3.250% May-2032 +104
- FUMVFH -/BBB+/BBB+ 4.500% May-2033 +111
- RWE Baa2/-/BBB+ 3.625% Jan-2032 +85
- TVOYFH Baa3/BBB-/BBB- 4.250% May-2031 +118
- CEE Utilities:
- CEZCP Baa1/A-/- 4.125% Sep-2031 +135
- CEZCP Baa1/A-/- 4.250% Jun-2032 +143
- CEZCP Baa1/A-/- 4.125% Apr-2033 +157
- BULENR Ba2/-/BB+ 4.250% Jun-2030 +220
- EP Infrastructure Curve:
- ENAPHO Baa3/BBB-/BBB- 2.045% Oct-2028 +156
- ENAPHO Baa3/BBB-/BBB- 1.816% Mar-2031 +173
- Raiffeisen Bank Zrt., a member of the Raiffeisen Bank International Group with over 30 years presence in Hungary, rated A3 (Negative) by Moody's, mandated Goldman Sachs Bank Europe SE, ING, J.P. Morgan SE and Raiffeisen Bank International as Joint Bookrunners to arrange a series of fixed-income investor calls that commenced Monday.
- A EUR300mn green non-preferred senior notes offering with a 6NC5 tenor in RegS format may follow, subject to market conditions. The notes are expected to be rated Baa3 by Moody's.
- An investor presentation will be made available.
- Meanwhile, Banca Transilvania, the largest bank in Romania by assets, rated Baa3 by Moody’s and BBB- by Fitch, is looking to issue a RON-benchmark sustainable 7NC6 RegS Bearer senior non preferred bond under the issuer’s EUR1.5bn EMTN Programme. Investor calls are being held Tuesday and Wednesday.
- Banca Transilvania has mandated Alpha Bank Romania S.A., member of UniCredit Group (“ABR”), Banca Comerciala Romana S.A., member of Erste Group (“BCR”), BT Capital Partners (“BTCP”) and Raiffeisen Bank S.A. (“RBRO”) as Joint Lead Managers.
- The Notes are expected to be rated BBB- by Fitch Ratings Ltd.
- The net proceeds from the issue of the Notes will be used to finance or refinance a portfolio of Sustainable Projects selected in accordance with the use of proceeds criteria and selection process as described in the Issuer’s Sustainable Finance Framework, available here.
- The investor presentation and call schedule can be seen here.
- This deal would be the issuer’s first publicly syndicated sale of Romanian Leu paper, following three EUR-denominated offerings across 2023 and 2024.
- Leads have provided the following comps:
- Issuer Name Moody's Fitch Currency Coupon Call date Maturity O/S I-Spread (bps) Rank
- City of Bucharest Romania n/a n/a RON 8.47 n/a 23/04/2031 RON 555.1mm 106 Unsecured
- Romanian Government Bond n/a BBB- RON 7.35 n/a 28/04/2031 RON 15782mm – Unsecured
- In the high-yield space, Czechoslovak Group a.s., a leading defence, industrial and technology group based in Prague, Czech Republic with a core focus on defence, small calibre ammunition, and aerospace, expected to be rated Ba1 (Stable) by Moody’s, BB+ (Stable) by S&P and BBB- (Stable) by Fitch, is holding investor calls on Monday. A dual-tranche senior unsecured 144A/RegS offering consisting of USD500mn (min) 5.5NC2 and EUR350mn (min) 5.5NC2 notes will follow subject to market conditions.
- The proceeds will be used to (i) refinance the outstanding Dec-30 FRN, (ii) general corporate purposes and (iii) pay transaction related fees and expenses.
- The Notes are expected to be rated Ba1 by Moody's, BB+ by S&P and BBB- by Fitch.
- BNP Paribas, J.P. Morgan and Morgan Stanley are Joint Global Coordinators and Joint Physical Bookrunners.
What to watch on Tuesday
Key data:
- PD May Retail Sales (08:00GMT)
- US Q1 Current Account Balance (12:30GMT)
- US April FHFA House Price Index (13:00GMT)
- US June Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (14:00GMT)
- US June Conference Board Consumer Confidence (14:00GMT)
Key events:
- Hungarian central bank rate decision (12:00GMT) f/c steady at 6.50%
- Fed’s Hammack (13:15GMT), Powell (14:00GMT), Williams (16:30GMT), Kashkari (17:45GMT), Collins (18:00GMT) & Barr (20:00GMT)
- ECB’s Guindos (11:15GMT), Kazimir (12:00GMT), Lagarde (13:00GMT) & Lane (13:55GMT& 14:15GMT)
Wider market Sentiment
- USD Index at 98.034
- UST 2yr/10yr at 3.836/4.326%
- Bund 2yr/10yr at 1.826%/2.511%
- Brent at $67.94/brl
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