CEEMEA OPEN: Trade deal optimism & Fed rate cut expectations support sentiment
By Natalie RivettShareshare
27th June 2025
- Asian stocks are mixed, with the Nikkei adding around 1.2% to the recent rally at the time of writing, whilst the Hang Seng and CSI300 shed ca. 0.3% and 0.6%, respectively.
- However, European and US stock futures are mostly a little firmer, supported by trade deal optimism and increased expectations for Fed interest rate cuts this year - Thursday’s US economic data added to the case for policy easing.
- US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said late Thursday the US and China had finalised an understanding on trade following talks last month in Geneva.
- Lutnick also stated the White House has imminent plans to reach agreements with 10 major trading partners.
- Meanwhile, the Treasury Department announced a deal with G7 allies that will exclude US companies from some taxes imposed by other countries in exchange for removing the Section 899 'revenge tax' proposal from President Donald Trump’s tax bill.
- Gold prices are back under USD3,300/oz and the UST rally has paused. The 10-year US yield, which closed below the 200-dma (4.3083%) for a third consecutive session, sits at 4.248% currently.
- Brent is trading rangebound, albeit near lows for the week, just above the USD68/brl mark, having attempted to rise above USD69/brl on Thursday.
- On Friday’s agenda, the US PCE is the standout data release, with the annualised reading expected to pick up slightly to 2.6% y/y in May from 2.5% last, but with a steady 0.1% m/m forecast.
- US personal spending is also in focus after the Q1 downgrade to ascertain the 'pressure' on the consumer. We also get final Michigan sentiment for June and those long-term inflation expectations.
- There is also multi-ECB and Fed speak scheduled. Overnight, the Fed’s Collins indicated July would be too early to lower borrowing costs.
- There is also central bank speak from the ECB and Fed scheduled. Overnight, the Fed’s Collins indicated July would be too early to lower borrowing costs.
Fresh in the CEEMEA Pipeline
- No new pipeline entries
Priced Deals
Date | Issuer | Ccy | Amount (m) | Coupon | Maturity | Yield | Spread | IPTS to Pxd | Book size (m) | Coverage | NICs |
26-Jun | JSC Dev Bank of Kazakhstan | USD | 200 | 5.625 | 07-04-2030 | 5.562 | -1.6 | 255 | 1.28 | 16 | |
26-Jun | JSC Dev Bank of Kazakhstan | KZT | 55000 | 17.300 | 07-04-2030 | 17.300 | 30.0 | 58000 | 1.05 | ||
26-Jun | Banca Transilvania | RON | 1500 | 8.875 | 03-07-2032 | 8.875 | -12.50 | 1600 | 1.07 |
On the Radar
- Two issuers helped to keep CEEMEA supply flowing on Thursday, after the rush of the previous three days.
- JSC Development Bank of Kazakhstan, rated Baa1 (Stable) by Moody’s / BBB (Stable) by Fitch / BBB- (Stable) S&P, with a tap of the outstanding USD500mn Apr-2030 notes and a new KZT 3-year bond.
- The Apr-2030 bond was increased by USD200mn, the upper end of the expected USD150-200mn range and priced at 5.562%. That was in from a starting point of 5.623 – 5.532% (wpir).
- Final books exceeded USD255mn.
- The KZT bond was sized at KZT55bn and with the reoffer yield reset at 17.30%, from 17.00%.
- The final book was in excess of KZT58bn.
- The new 3-year KZT notes were RegS only, with expected ratings BBB (Fitch) / BBB- (S&P).
- This issuance followed hot on the heels of the Kazak sovereign’s USD2.5bn offering on Tuesday that consisted of USD1.35bn Jul-2032 and USD1.15bn Jul-2037 tranches at yields of 5.00% and 5.50%.
- Banca Transilvania, the largest bank in Romania by assets, rated Baa3 by Moody’s and BBB- by Fitch, landed a RON1.5bn sustainable 7NC6 RegS Bearer senior non preferred bond at 8.875% from 9% area IPTs, with final books above RON1.6bn (including RON50mn JLM).
- This deal was Banca Transilvania’s first publicly syndicated sale of Romanian Leu paper, following three EUR-denominated offerings across 2023 and 2024.
- Total issuance for the week stands at USD14.92bn – the best weekly tally since 28 April – 5 May week (USD15.16bn).
What to watch on Friday
Key data:
- CZ Q1 Final GDP (07:00GMT)
- EC June Economic/Industrial/Services Confidence (09:00GMT)
- US May Personal Income/Spending (12:30GMT)
- US May Core PCE Price Index (13:30)
- US June Final Uni of Michigan Sentiment (14:00GMT)
Key events:
- ECB’s Villeroy (07:30GMT), Rehn (11:00 & 12:00GMT) & Cipollone (16:00GMT)
- Fed’s Williams (11:30GMT), Hammack (13:15GMT) & Cook (13:15GMT)
Wider market Sentiment
- USD Index at 97.300
- UST 2yr/10yr at 3.734%/4.248%
- Bund 2yr/10yr at 1.813%/2.546%
- Brent at $68.15/brl
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