30th May, 2025

• European stocks are enjoying another leg higher to end the week with a broad-based rise seen in the Stoxx600. On the data front, German retail sales came in weaker than expected MoM with a -1.1% figure, albeit that this metric is rather volatile as witnessed by the prior month revision from -0.2% to +0.9%. Spanish national CPI dropped to 1.9% YoY, 20bp below consensus and 30bp down on April. This is not a cyclical low (which belongs to last September's 1.5% y/y) but maintains the disinflation trend after April's pop to 2.4% YoY. Italy's CPI rendered the exact same 1.9% YoY figure, although that was in line with consensus (and 10bp lower than prior)
• Stoxx600: Every sub-sector in the green with a 0.63% rise at the index level at time of writing (and near the day's highs)
• Govvies: Yields up across the board with EGBs anywhere between 1-3bp higher. Front end and peripherals outperforming GER. Steepening bias for choice in EGBs whilst in Gilts the curve is flattening with 2yr up almost 4bp
• COVERED WEEKLY: Credit Mutuel draws strong demand as momentum remains measured
• SSA WEEKLY: Spain goes above and beyond with EUR13bn deal
• CORP WEEKLY: Biggest month on record for EUR corp supply
• Primary: Issuers are staying away for a second consecutive day Friday as many European players bridge yesterday’s Ascension Day holiday into the weekend. That means the weekly euro haul remains stuck at EUR33.75bn, and just short of the highest combined guess of EUR35bn put forward in our weekly estimate poll
• Ahead: US data is highlighted by Personal spending numbers, Chicago PMI and Uni of Michigan sentiment. No fed speak scheduled until after the market close. S&P futures -0.12%, Nasdaq futures -0.12%

Live deals/updates

n/a

Added to the pipeline

Already out today

• JN May CPI in line at 3.4%
• JN Retail Sales surprised to the upside at 3.3% YoY (exp 3.0%, prev 3.1%)
• GE Apr Retail Sales significantly lower than f/c at -1.1% MoM (exp 0.2%, prev revised up from -0.2% to 0.9%)
• SP May P CPI lower than consensus at 1.9% (exp 2.1%, prev 2.2%)
• IT Q1 F GDP slightly higher than prelim at 0.7% YoY (prelim 0.6%)
• IT May P CPI EU Harmonised in line with f/c at 1.9% YoY (prev 2.0%)

Auctions

• No major term auctions scheduled for Friday 30^th May

Ahead

• GE May P CPI (13:00)
• US Apr Personal Income/Spending (13:30)
• US Apr Core PCE Price Index (13:30)
• US Apr P Wholesale Inventories (13:30)
• US May MNI Chicago PMI (14:45)
• US May F Uni of Michigan Sentiment (15:00)
• Fed’s Daly speaks (21:45)

All times BST

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