CREDIT BULLETS: Spain goes large, very large
By Gavin KendrickShareshare
28th May, 2025
- European stocks have traded in a narrow range with little to go on in terms major news flow as markets await an update on the latest in the EU-US tariff spat. A Japanese 40-yr auction was conducted overnight which saw weak demand relative to other recent issuance. On the data front, French GDP was lacklustre with the YoY figure ending up at 0.6% and 20bp lower than the preliminary reading. PPI figures from France showed a large drop MoM (-4.3%). The ECBs CES showed 1yr CPI expectations back above 3%, but the market isn't acting concerned about even a near-term inflation issue. German jobs data suggested a weakening labour market. All told, data was mixed, but should do nothing to put off an ECB cut next week
- Stoxx600: Opened marginally higher but has since had a minor slump to -0.38% on the day. Real estate the best performer (+0.51%) but health care and consumer staples acting as a drag.
- Govvies: EGB yields are higher across jurisdictions and tenors. Gilt underperforming though with yields around 4bp higher at 2yr and 10yr tenor, smaller moves further along the curve.
- CORP SNAPSHOT: Market still active but deal flow eases
- SSA SNAPSHOT: Spain 10yr inundated with demand (again)
- FIG SNAPSHOT: Market still open for business
- Performance checker of Wed’s EUR benchmark deals (bp change from reoffer) –
- Covered: CMCICB 2.625% 06/30 -1, CMCICB 3.125% 06/35 unch, HYNOE 2.75% 10/32 +1
- FIG: CMZB(AT1)6.625% PNC8 -5, AXASA (RT1) 5.75%PNC 5.5-10, AXASA(T2) 4.375% 07/55 unch, TPEIR (SNR PRF) 3% 12/28 -8
- SSA: BERGER 2.375% 06/30 -0.5
- Corp: RENUAL 3.375% 6/30 unch, BRITEL 3.75% 1/35 -2.5, AMPRIO 3% 12/29 -1, AMPRIO 3.875% 6/36 unch, CCEP 3.125% 6/31 -2.5 , NGGLN 3.15% 6/30 +1.5, NGGLN 3.917% 6/35 unch
Primary: SSAs fired back into action after a quiet day for the sector Tuesday with Spain surprising with a EUR13bn deal size for its new 10yr transaction. All other sectors active too with a similar pattern emerging to last week in FIG where we are seeing early week AT1/RT1 trades replaced with transactions from higher up the capital stack. See below for all the details.
- Ahead: A quiet afternoon is in store in terms of CB speakers and data. US figures limited to Richmond Fed Mfg Index although later in the session we do get Fed minutes from the May 7th meeting. S&P futures +0.12%, Nasdaq futures +0.24%
Live deals/updates
| Issuer | Deal Type | CCY | Amount (mn) | Maturity | Initial Price Talk | Latest Px Talk | Final Pricing | Book Size (mn) |
| ABN Amro Bank NV | Senior preferred, Green Bond | EUR | 1,000 | 6/4/2029 | m/s+90-95 | - | m/s+65 | 2,200 |
| ANZ Bank (Australia & New Zealand Banking Group) | Covered | EUR | 1,500 | 6/4/2029 | m/s+43a | - | m/s+36 | 2,900 |
| Bank Polska Kasa Opieki S.A. | Senior non-preferred | EUR | TBD | 6NC5 | m/s+200a | - | - | 1,600 |
| Deutsche Post AG | EUR | TBD | 6/5/2032 | m/s+115a | m/s+85a (+/-2) | - | 2,500 | |
| Eurobank Ergasias Services and Holdings S.A. | EUR | 500 | PNC6 | 7.25%a | - | - | 4,000 | |
| Glencore Capital Finance DAC | EUR | TBD | 2/4/2032 | m/s+180a | m/s+150a (+/-5 WPIR) | - | 2,600 | |
| HOWOGE Wohnungsbaugesellschaft mbH | Social Bond | EUR | 200 | 6/5/2030 | m/s+145a | - | m/s+110 | 1,350 |
| Kingdom of Spain | EUR | 13,000 | 10/31/2035 | SPGB+9a | - | SPGB+7 | 120,000 | |
| Mercedes-Benz International Finance BV | EUR | TBD | 9/5/2031 | m/s+125-130 | - | - | Awaiting Update | |
| Mercedes-Benz International Finance BV | EUR | TBD | 9/5/2028 | m/s+90-95 | - | - | Awaiting Update | |
| NIBC Bank | Senior non-preferred, Green Bond | EUR | 500 | 6/5/2030 | m/s+155a | - | m/s+130 | 1,300 |
| Ontario Teachers' Finance Trust | Green Bond | EUR | 1,000 | 12/4/2031 | m/s+60a | - | m/s+57 | 4,100 |
| Banque Federative du Credit Mutuel (BFCM) | Senior preferred | GBP | TBD | 9/10/2031 | UKT+125a | - | - | 750 |
| Danske Bank A/S | Senior non-preferred | GBP | TBD | 6.33NC5.33 | UKT+130-135 | - | G+120 | 500 |
| BNG Bank N.V. (Bank Nederlandse Gemeenten) | USD | TBD | 6/4/2035 | SOFR m/s+74a | - | SOFR m/s+71 | 3,700 | |
| MDGH Sukuk Limited | Sukuk | USD | TBD | 6/4/2035 | T+95a | - | T+60 | 5,000 |
Added to the pipeline
n/a
Already out today
- FR 1Q F GDP YoY came in lower than f/c at 0.6% (exp 0.8%), MoM in line at 0.1%
- FR Apr PPI YoY lower than prev at -0.8% (prev revised to -0.2%). MoM was -4.3% (prev -0.5%)
- GE May Unemployment Claims Rate in line at 6.3%
Auctions
- Japan sold JPY500bn 40yr bond at 3.135% yield
- UK sold GBP2.75bn 2033 bond at 4.511% yield, bid-cover 3.56x
- Germany sold EUR2bn 2038 and 2040 bonds at 2.8% (2.36x) and 2.85% (5.8x) yields
- US to sell USD28bn 2yr FRN
- US to sell USD70bn 5yr notes
Ahead
- 6 S&P500 companies release results
- US May 23 MBA Mortgage Applications (12:00)
- US May Richmond Fed Manufact. Index (15:00)
- Speech from BOE's Pill (16:00)
- FOMC Meeting Minutes (19:00)
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