30th June 2025

The USD starts the week making further losses, pretty much the way it ended the last one.

Of course, it's MONTH-END today and overall the picture seems to be one of overall moderate USD selling from the clutch of research pieces we have viewed so far.

Latest moves also coincide with material broad gains in US stock futures amid some hopes for global trade talks.

Bbg reports Canada rescinded its digital service tax targeted at companies including Meta and Alphabet days after US President Trump cited the levy for cutting off trade negotiations. Ottawa said the two countries will work toward reaching a deal by July 21.

Elsewhere, UK car manufacturers can export to the US under a 10% tariff from today; Trump described trade in cars between the US and Japan as unfair ahead of the July 9 deadline for a deal and France said it believes the EU can clinch a deal by then.

Staying with the US and the president, Trump stated we have a stupid person at the Fed; accusing the Bank's Chairman of artificially inflating interest rates and said they should be less than half of what they are now.

Today starts with a bang, with a packed data slate, particularly in Europe.

Beginning proceedings at the top of the hour are the likes of UK final UK Q1 GDP (seen 0.7% q/q) and German and Swedish retail sales.

These releases are followed through the morning by the likes of German states CPIs, the Swiss KOF leading indicator, UK mortgage approvals and Italian final CPI for June as well as the Norges Bank's FX transactions for July.

The Chicago PMI, seen at 42.9 in June vs 40.5 the month previous, looks main event of the second half.

Overnight data showed China's June composite PMI rose to 50.7 vs 50.4 last, as factory activity improved for a second month but remained in contraction territory at 49.7, as trade rebounds after the pause in the tariff war with the US though weak domestic demand continues to weigh on the economy.

And ahead of tomorrow's release of the Q2 Tankan, Japan preliminary IP for May missed expectations at 0.5% m/m vs the 3.5% consensus and -1.1% result last.

The Swiss release their FX transactions for Q1, while there is a host of ECB and Fed speak too, including an ECB press conference on the conclusion of the strategy review. ECB President Lagarde is a scheduled speaker tonight also.

In other markets, oil stays near recent lows of Usd 66.82/brl (June 24), as Bbg reports OPEC+ is set to consider extending its run of super-sized production increases at a meeting in July, as Saudi Arabia is said to lead a push to recoup market share.

And, a new estimate from the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office suggests the Senate version of President Donald Trump’s tax and spending measure would add near Usd 3.3tln to US deficits over a decade.

In the UK, The Times reports UK PM Starmer will launch a last-ditch attempt (today) to convince MPs to back cuts to disability benefits, but faces a stand-off with about 50 Labour backbenchers still set on rebelling. Ministers insist they have offered the rebels everything possible to back down after concessions last week staved off a probable defeat in the Commons on Tuesday.