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Junk Sags As Conflict Weighs On Risk

High yield bonds closed lower today by - 0.344% and lower in the Index this week.

The Index was lower for the week by - 0.439%. Four solid deals were priced this in five tranches creating $5.35bn volume for the week.

No new issues were priced on Friday. AMC Entertainment is the only deal on the forward calendar and is still looking to price a $750m TLB and $1.73bn 5nc2 first lien senior secured notes (B3/B). Risk tolerances have continued to diminish, and underwriters have not yest secured the orders due to market volatility.

HY Spreads were wider on Friday, and little moved for the week.

CCCs widened by seven basis point this week to +957. Bs were unchanged for the week at +345, and BBs widened by one basis point at +191. Within the ICE/ BofA US HY Index, the Average return is lower for the week by - 0.439%. For the week, Bs outperformed. The CCC rated sector was lower for the week by - 0.489%, and. Bs were lower by - 0.317%. BBs closed lower by - 0.501%....

The largest new issues this week was $2.15bn APLD ComputeCo 2 LLC (PFORGE) 144a / Reg S for life 5nc2 senior secured sustainability linked note.. Ba3 / -- / BB-. via Bookrunners: GS +. Net proceeds from the offering to fund the development and construction of 200 megawatts of critical IT load at Polaris Forge 2, its AI Factory campus in Harwood, North Dakota, as well as the “Project Accounts” (including but not limited to the Debt Service Reserve Account) in accordance with the provisions of the indenture governing the Notes, and to pay related fees and expenses, including transaction expenses. The deal was priced at 7.232% with a 6.75% coupon, +357, at $98.00. The deal was similar to the last deal from Applied Digital that was underwritten by lead manager JPM, but this week's deal was priced approximately 75bps through where the November deal wa syndicates trading and traded up by over 1.125 points in secondary trading after breaking syndicate.

The sentiment in the secondary market has become increasingly cautious, especially in CCC and B rated credits.

Spreads have widened but have remained orderly. Bs outperformed this week and BBs lagged. Higher leveraged deals and lesser credits are essentially shut out of the current primary market. HY ETF flows for the week ending March 04 showed a small inflow of $58m. The largest HY ETFs were lower for the week by - 1.34%. Lipper data over the same period showed managed HY outflows of -182.8m

Treasury yields closed little changed today except for the 2-year (- 1.5bps) as the market stabilized into the close.. The 2s-10s curve was wider on Friday by + 2.4bps, and steeper on the week by + 1.5bps to close at 57.5. Economic data remains relatively solid overall. Today's data, Non-farm Payrolls disappointed most expectations, and Retail Sales were higher (ex g.as & autos). As the Iran conflict continues, a small flight to quality took place into the weekend.

Stocks were lower for the week after oil spiked raising fears of inflation and supply disruptions.

For the week, the DOW was lower by - 3.01%, the S&P - 2.02%, NASDAQ - 1.24%, and the Russell 2000 faded by - 14.07%. The VIX was higher for the week by + 8.04 points, closing at 29.49.

In this week's economic data releases, the S&P Manufacturing PMI met expectations, the ISM complex exceeded forecast (w/ Prices Paid notably higher), ADP employment data was the strongest monthly employment gains since July (63k), the ISM Services data exceeded forecasts, but with lower Prices Paid. Import Prices were largely in-line, but Export Prices were higher than expected. Initial Jobless Claims were in-line, but Continuing Claims were elevated. Today's (Friday) Nonfarm Payroll data was well below expectations, largely from the Private Payrolls retracting. Healthcare jobs were the main contributor to that data deficiency. The Unemployment Rate returned to 4.4%. Retail Sales were higher (ex-gas & auto).

Weekend event risk of fears has resurfaced. The attack on Iran is under way after negotiations failed Iran says that it will not cease to enrich uranium, and the US says they will not allow Iran to do such. The US military actions continue to build, and the duration of the military action is likely last for longer than most expect.

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