Maybe not all change, but plenty of change in G10 FX and the broader USD since Feb 13's previous update.

From sub-97.00 levels, DXY USD Index has quickly rallied towards the psychological 100.00 mark. The DXY is back above its 200-dma (98.36) and tops at 99.70 for now.

It's not gains across the board at this juncture, but again it's pretty close.

From an intermittent USD crisis/sell America theme last time out, an Iran war has taken markets by surprise and though the USD's haven status through 2026 has been more than questioned, ultimately in a time of global crisis investors appear to have little alternative than to at the very least pare USD shorts.

We can also differentiate between commodity/energy importers and exporters too. The latter supports the USD right now, while those in the former camp such as the YEN and EUR have been outsize losers.

Markets are still trying to assess the likely duration of the conflict and the macro response and clearly more hawkish central bank outlooks are being widely priced following the oil spike and expectations for higher inflation.

One outlier seems to be Aussie, independently supported by rising bets on a second straight RBA rate hike next week.

EUR/USD - The 1.20-plus charge is stalled. Back now below the 200-dma (1.1676), downside levels 1.1500 and 1.1392-00 could be be targeted in H1. Position paring has been a theme as positives/props are ignored for now. ECB's Kazmir stated the Iran war and its impact on inflation may force the Bank to raise interest rates sooner than anticipated. And, Nagel repeated comments that the ECB is “vigilant” and will act should the war in Iran trigger a surge in inflation. Flows matter and Reverse Yankee issuance look potentially stratospheric in 2026, perhaps above Usd 100bln. This could at the very least be viewed as an example of global investors diversifying away from US assets towards in this case the EU. War though wins out for now and the EUR doesn't as a net energy/commodities importer, while the early prop of growth optimism is being increasingly questioned.

Unchanged. War duration dependent. Amber warning flashing for bullish estimates.

USD/YEN - Oil gyrations clearly an impacter and with no imminent end in sight to the Iran war, a buy dips bias here is winning out, while the YEN remains a relative underperformer in March so far as a notable commodities/energy importer. We obviously remain concerned at such lofty levels that the MOF could be back with their verbal intervention tactic; even further with some rate checking. We also mull that the admin (and markets!) could have more pressing concerns. Despite the beat in Japan Q4 GDP (1.3% annualised q/q), there is a growing concern the domestic economy could slumber into a stagflationary mix which could allow/force PM Takaichi into a more expansionary fiscal stance, potentially adding another YEN headwind. Interestingly, BOJ rate hike expectations have not increased through the war so far even though Ueda and co are already in the midst of a tightening cycle.

Unchanged. Not prepared to raise estimates whilst price is is sat inside the MOF line in the sand region between 157 - 160.

GBP/USD - A relative outperformer through the conflict so far even as a net commodities/energy importer. Oil/energy price spikes has led to a revision in the BOE monetary policy outlook. The late 2025/early 2026 view that we could see a dovish turn and earlier cuts is quickly removed. No moves now priced for 2026 and if the war escalates and/or drags on, markets could well price a hike as the more likelier next move. Politics remains a potential weight, particularly after the Greens' seismic win in late Feb's by-election. We suspect PM Starmer remains vulnerable, as he is under fire from all sides. Trump has been scathing at his lack of support for the Iran war, while a leadership challenge stays a possibility and markets' biggest worry of a lurch way left in government cannot be ruled out. We'll stay data dependent to an extent, with the labour market report and CPI our big watches.

Unchanged. Sub-1.40 trade looks set to continue.

USD/CHF - Real Swiss interest rates remain unattractive, at around 0%, but most other drivers stay net CHF supportive. In early 2026, USD/CHF has made a big sub-0.8000 return to hit fresh multi-year lows of 0.7605. In comparison, the far bigger watch for the SNB EUR/CHF, has been relatively stable above 0.9000 for the most part, and so the perceived intervention threat has seemingly been reduced. The SNB slightly upgraded the 2026 growth outlook after Washington lowered tariffs on Swiss exports. Other Franc props through the USD debasement story include Switzerland's persistent trade surplus and thereby inflows; budgetary status (vs France!!) and its neutral ongoing safe haven position (amid escalating geopolitics and war; fragile economic growth optimism story).

Unchanged. Looking for 0.7500 to provide some sort of base through the period.

USD/CAD - The Loonie is an early war outperformer and no wonder after OIL spiked to fresh multi-month highs of Usd 119.50/brl this week. As a result, Funds looks potentially capped at 1.3753-1.3801 and the 200-dma very near-term. At this juncture and a CAD prop, the BOC is priced to at least keep its target rate at 2.25%, with a full +25BPs hike seen possible in Q4. Sustained higher oil prices should boost Canada GDP and headline inflation albeit from fairly cool levels. There is also a school of thought that the Iran war could be beneficial for USMCA negotiations. BofA Global Research wrote with rising geopolitical tensions, Washington is unlikely to want multiple fronts open simultaneously, while secure energy supply from Canada becomes even more strategically valuable. The relationship between the two leaders, Carney and Trump, will stay a focus here!

Estimates unchanged.

AUD/USD - Continues as 2026 king. The Antipodeans have shown stability throughout the 11 day Iran war, as some investors seemingly view these G10s as relatively sheltered from the latest geopolitical storm. Implied probability of a RBA rate hike next week and second straight tightening has semi-spiked to 60%-plus from around 13% at the turn of March. The +15BPs of tightening priced for the 17th follows latest comments from RBA DG Hauser who said further inflationary pressure from the war in Iran would not be helpful as policymakers assess the fallout for the economy. Hauser acknowledged inflation is headed “higher than Feb's projection” and that it’s so important to bring inflation back to target from its too high level at the moment. The RBA has warned that inflation was proving stubborn as demand continued to outstrip the economy’s capacity to supply. Yield differentials!