That’s what investment-grade rated borrowers will be telling themselves as markets react nervously to shifting news about the Iran conflict and economic data.

The start of this month has fallen short of expectations.

Issuance volumes this week totaled $51.55bln after a no-deal Friday - the second no-deal day this week - falling well below even the lowest syndicate estimates of $55bln.

Despite a massive issuance day on Thursday, which followed a no-deal Monday, a one-deal Tuesday, and a five-deal Wednesday, the primary market has demonstrated resilience, rebounding quickly.

However, new issuance supply will depend on periods of stability in broader markets. The message is clear: borrowers are not rushing blindly into the market, risking large new issue premiums or compromising on buyer quality to avoid poor post-pricing bond performance.

This caution was evident earlier in the week when approximately 15-20 borrowers opted to hold back from issuing on Monday as the Iran conflict escalated.

There was only one deal a day later from Norinchukin Bank, a Japanese cooperative bank, that was projecting profit growth for the next fiscal year following a weaker performance this period due to losses from its joint venture JA Mitsui Leasing’s exposure to bankrupt U.S. auto-parts maker First Brands.

The issuance was also on the back of S&P revising its outlook on the bank to stable from negative, citing expectations of improved earnings buffers and reduced interest rate risks through divestment of foreign bonds with net negative yields.

This defensive yet growth-oriented story resonated with investors, even on a volatile day. The bonds were upsized to $1bln with $3bln in orders. New issue concessions were in the high double digits, which seemed reasonable given the market’s nervous reaction to the Iran conflict. Both the five- and 10-year bonds traded 5-12 basis points inside new issue levels by Friday, according to broker Seelaus quotes.

The successful execution of this deal encouraged five companies to issue bonds, raising $17.65bln across 14 tranches. Market conditions improved midweek, with tech shares surging and oil prices easing amid U.S. government assurances to maintain energy flow in the Middle East. Positive economic data on Wednesday further boosted sentiment, reaffirming confidence in the economy’s ability to weather short-term geopolitical volatility.

Among the issuers, Eaton Corp led with an $8.5bln multi-part deal, ultimately narrowed to six tranches, to fund its acquisition of Boyd Thermal. Eaton announced on November 3, 2025, that it would acquire Boyd Thermal from Goldman Sachs Asset Management for $9.5bln in cash. The transaction is expected to close in Q2 2026, pending regulatory approvals. The bonds priced with spreads 35-42bp inside initial price targets (IPTs), reflecting strong demand. Books peaked at $62bln before the floater tranche was dropped, with the 10- and 30-year bonds receiving the most orders.

Fidelity National Information Services (FIS) raised $6.8bln through a four-part trade to repay a term loan facility used to finance its $12bln acquisition of Global Payments’ Issuer Solutions business. FIS bonds, rated Baa2/BBB, priced about 30bp inside IPTs on $22bln in orders.

Thursday’s supply was led by HSBC Holdings, which issued $8bln across four tranches of fixed- and floating-rate senior unsecured notes.

The deal attracted peak books of over $30bln, with final orders at $25bln after spreads tightened 30-35bp from IPTs. HSBC’s bonds, issued with modest new issue concessions, traded 2-3bp tighter in secondary markets.

Baker Hughes Holdings followed with a $6.5bln five-part trade of three- to 30-year senior unsecured notes. Peak books reached $29bln, with final orders at $22bln. Spreads tightened 25-30bp, and minimal attrition indicated strong demand. However, these bonds traded 2-5bp wider in secondary markets due to shifting sentiment.

Investors remain price-sensitive, with book attrition rates from peak to final at 23%, slightly better than February’s 25% but higher than January’s 20%. The average concession for the week was 3.78bp, up from 2.02bp in February and 1bp in January.

Investment-grade bonds continue to attract investors seeking safe, higher-yielding alternatives to Treasuries amid geopolitical and economic uncertainty. Fund flow data from LSEG Lipper for the week ending March 4 showed $1.88bln in inflows to short- and intermediate-term investment-grade bonds, compared to $1.39bln for Treasuries. While leveraged loans and high-yield bonds saw outflows, mortgage-related notes gained $73m in inflows.

Richard Wolff, head of US DCM Bond Syndicate at SGCIB highlighted this dynamic during IGM’s latest webinar on Wednesday. To listen to that webinar and others coming soon, please click on Market Insiders: The Latest Trends in Bond Issuances

Which also means more borrowers are lining up to issue next week. On average, syndicate bankers are expecting $63bln in new issue supply next week helped by two large jumbo trades in the pipeline.

One is likely to be a $16bln multi-tranche offering from Honeywell Aerospace to finance its planned spinoff from Honeywell.

The company with expected ratings of A3 (Stable) by Moody's, BBB+ (Positive) by S&P, and A- (Stable) by Fitch, mandated Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC, Morgan Stanley, BofA Securities, J.P. Morgan, and Wells Fargo Securities to arrange a series of fixed income investor calls to be held on Monday. It also said a potential benchmark senior unsecured USD 144A / RegS offering with registration rights and maturities ranging from 2 to 40 years is expected to follow.

The second deal is still an unknown and was expected to arrive this week, hence the average weekly estimates of $64bln, but did not get a clean runway all week for its size. It was also probably pushed to next week because of the crowding that happened on Thursday when 19 deals for 40 tranches were sold.

Though the large deals could make it to market on Monday, it will all depend on the overall mood.

This morning's jobs data and the subsequent price action in Treasuries since the start of this conflict suggest that a "sell America" trade (US equities, the dollar, and Treasuries) might have some runway in FX markets.

It has been quietly unfolding all week in US Treasuries, where flows have signaled growing concerns about US exceptionalism in a stagflationary environment.

As for jobs, the unemployment rate went up. Participation down. Even underemployment was lower, which dents the weather influence on the data when measuring that weather disruptions generally lift this measure. This was a bad number, full stop.

Goolsbee admitted as much this morning when he said a few months of numbers like that would be a concern. Follow up price action has seen traditional safe haven hierarchies reasserting themselves, marking a notable shift from recent price action. If safe haven demand pivots away from the dollar and toward traditional havens like the yen and Swiss franc, short USD/JPY into 158 is a gift sale.

The key will be whether this mornings labor market data is the start of a snowball or a blip. For now, the technical and fundamental setup favors fading USD strength on rallies rather than chasing breakouts. The Japanese are a major economic importer and sustained oil spikes are broadly negative, but during periods of real economic stress, capital repatriation and risk aversion will dominate the terms-of-trade story eventually.

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