30th June 2025
Over the weekend, President Trump said he was terminating all trade talks with Canada. Canada responded by dropping their digital services tax, giving investors hope the two countries might still reach an agreement before the July 9th deadline.
Today’s backdrop for issuance is solid. Stock futures are pointing to a green open. The Dow is up 250pts, the S&P 500 is up 0.42%, and the Nasdaq is up 0.61% after both the S&P and Nasdaq hit fresh all-time highs on Friday. Interest rates are lower, with the 10yr down 2bp to 4.253%. The 2yr is 2bp lower at 3.729%, and the long bond is down 3bp to 4.810%. Corporate spreads tightened 1bp, with the average high grade bond trading 85bp over comparable Treasuries.
Three deals were announced overnight. Softbank and ABN Amro are in the market with 2-part deals, while SMFG launched a 5-part deal. A few more deals are expected later this morning, which should take us past the $105bln average monthly estimate in the final day of June.
Issuance is expected to slow this week due to the 4th of July holiday. Street estimates for ex-SSA supply range from as little as $5bln to as much as $20bln, with the average at $14.2bln. Regardless of where the final tally lands, supply is expected to be front-loaded with an early close on Thursday and a full market holiday on Friday.
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2025 HIGH GRADE ISSUANCE - 06/30 WEEK, JUNE & 2025 ESTIMATES
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| 6/30 WK | LO EST | AVE EST | HI EST | ACTUAL | JUN | LO EST | AVE EST | HI EST | ACTUAL | 2025 | LO EST | AVE EST | HI EST | ACTUAL |
| EX-SSA | $5.0B | $14.20B | $20.0B | $0 | EX-SSA | $105.0B | $125.0B | $103,625 | EX-SSA | $1.350B | $1.650B | $1.900B | $910,211 | |
| OVERALL | $6.0B | $16.20B | $23.0B | $0 | OVERALL | $148,725 | OVERALL | $1.550B | $1.900B | $2.100B | $1,168,288 |
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2025 HIGH GRADE ISSUANCE - RECENT MANDATES
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| DATE | ISSUER | RATINGS | MGRS | CALL | PROPOSED DEAL |
| 25-Mar | NATL HEALTH INVESTORS | BAA3/BBB- | BOA/JPM/WFS | 25-Mar | |
| 27-Mar | REPSOL | NR/BBB+ | C/GS/JPM | 27-Mar | 144A REG S MULTI-TRANCHE |
| 31-Mar | RWE AG | BAA2/BBB+ | BARC/BNP/JPM/MIZ/MS | 31-Mar | 144A REG S GREEN DEAL |
| 24-Apr | ANTOFAGASTA | NR/BBB | BOA/BBVA/CA/GS/JPM/MUFG/NTX/SCOT/UBS | 24-Apr | 10YR 144A REG S DEAL |
| 24-June | KOREA GAS | HSBC/JPM/KDB/STAN/UBS | 26-June | 3YR AND/OR 5YR FXD/FRN |
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