28th May, 2025

Considering the fact that the last week of May has been relegated to just four viable trading sessions, those who responded to our weekly issuance poll were expecting issuance to be on the light side, with the average estimate coming in at $25bln. The guesses ranged from a low of $20bln, to a high of $33bln, though that was before President Trump decided to delay his proposed 50% tariffs on the European Union, which might have many rethinking the process.

The 30-day EU tariff reprieve provided a better-than-expected backdrop for those high-grade borrowers who were waiting in the wings to forge ahead with their respective financing plans. So much so, that 10 showed up, raising $10.9bln in the process. Yesterday’s haul brought ex-SSA issuance for the month to $143.85bln, inching closer to the highest monthly estimate of $150bln.

As we all know, the month of May is typically a very busy month for high grade issuance, consistently ranking as the third most prolific issuance month of the year, averaging $147.517bln over the past decade. We have seen as much as $248.59bln (2020), but as little as $86.81bln (2022) come to market in the month of May. Last year, high-grade borrowers raised $136.15bln, a figure we have already eclipsed.

As it stands right now, ex-SSA issuance this year ($794.146bln) is running at a 1.7% faster pace than last year at this time, while overall (SSA-inclusive) issuance ($1.005.123bln) is virtually even thanks to yesterday’s $5bln 3-pt offering from ARAMCO.

While there were no ex-SSA offerings announced overnight, with no less than three potential borrowers wrapping up investor calls yesterday – Georgia Pacific, Reinsurance Group and Florida Gas Transmission – we fully expect issuance to continue to flow as the month comes to an end. We’ve been told to expect at least seven issuers to be assessing the market this morning, including AT&T’s just announced 3-pt offering of 5, 10 and 31yr notes and Waste Connections’ 10yr note offering. There is one SSA offering on today’s docket. BNG Bank is slated to raise $2bln through a 10yr note offering.

Needless to say, relief over the delayed tariffs, that and stronger reading on consumer confidence, sent the stock market soaring with the Dow rallying more than 740 points, while the S&P500 and the Nasdaq rallied 2.05% and 2.47%, respectively, snapping four-day losing streaks for all three major indices.

The optimism surrounding the US-EU trade talks carried over into the Treasury market, though not as pronounced as in the stock market. The benchmark 10yr note yield fell 8bp to close at 4.43%, while the long bond saw its yield fall 10bp, closing at 4.94%.

In the meantime, the 2yr note yield ducked down below the 4.00% level once again, closing 8bp better at 3.92%. Corporate spreads also tightened overnight to where the average high-grade bond is now trading 91bp over comparable Treasuries.

As for general market conditions this morning, the equity market appears to be catching its collective breath after yesterday’s relief rally, with futures indicating a modestly mixed open for the three major averages as the Street awaits Nvidia’s all important earnings results after the bell.

For the most part, Treasuries are virtually unchanged with yields slightly higher than last night’s close. The benchmark 10yr note is now yielding 4.44%, 1bp higher, while the same can be said for the long bond (4.95%). However, the 2yr note is trading 2bp higher at 3.95%.

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2025 HIGH GRADE ISSUANCE - 05/26 WEEK, MAY & 2025 ESTIMATES

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2025 HIGH GRADE ISSUANCE - RECENT MANDATES

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2025 HIGH GRADE ISSUANCE - 5/28 CALENDAR

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2025 HIGH GRADE ISSUANCE - 5/27 PRICINGS

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