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New UK PM, Same Old Execution Risk

Around lunchtime Andy Burnham will officially become the fourth UK PM in five years and the seventh in ten.

Early days will be a lot about the vibes. The transition from Starmer to Burnham is a significant change of personality which in the short-term at least will reveal itself in bold optimism, that so far has been long on aspiration (nothing wrong with this by the way) although short on actual policy with a pledge not to break from the manifesto.

There is no chance of pleasing all of the people all of the time. Politics is about choices and this involves the 'difficult choices' leaders keep talking about, but have been accused of failing to make. The below list seem the main issues that will need to be tackled.

1 - Place public finances on a sustainable trajectory (sub-text, revenue/spending sides - deal with cost of NHS and Welfare budget/triple-lock. Defence spending).

2 - Drive economic growth (for all) - reverse deindustrialisation? Devolution.

3 - Reverse rising youth unemployment

4 - Reduce inflation ('cost of living crisis'/energy bills - North Sea licences, no indication NEW licences will be issue)

5 - Solve the housing crisis (more affordable housing)

6 - Immigration

7 - Improve food security

8 - Reverse climate change

9 - Avoid Starmer's 'mistakes'

The Burnham team have managed to keep a lid on leaks regarding Cabinet appointments. Aside it seems from Chancellor names where Shabana Mahmood looks to be the shoo-in, something the Gilt market hasn't kicked back on.

There will be at most four months before Burnham's first Budget. The Gbp 23bn of headroom the current Chancellor had in the March budget has been eaten into (Iran war impact) which given the fiscal rules/manifesto pledge is highly suggestive that funding will need to come from taxation.

An interview with The Times indicated the freezing of tax allowances was a major issue during the Makerfield by-election. Raising the starting point will be an effective tax cut. As will the mooted energy bill reduction. These, however, will be expensive and need to be clawed back which risks taxing higher earners more.

Taking utilities back into the public domain (Thames Water looks up first for this) won't be cheap either.

Allowing existing North Sea licences to be exploited and more use of what are called 'tie-backs' which allow for drilling on sites that are adjacent to existing operations will keep the manifesto pledge in tact. Not quite the drill, baby, drill that the US President clearly wants.

Building more council houses is easier said than done and needs to be funded.

Small boat arrivals are down significantly this year. There is a feeling that politically these have to drop close to zero before the wider public are want to give credit. Still, the falling arrivals seem to be denting Reform in the polls. Shabana Mahmood's policy to force migrants to wait longer to obtain permanent settlement in the UK has faced kick back from a significant number of Labour MPs.

A medium-term plan to deal with unsustainable public finances trajectory, which ultimately means dealing with the welfare segment, will involve a large number of tough choices. This is where Burnham will probably face most trouble within his own party given the contentious issues at stake. There needs to be a plan to take defence spending to 3.5%/GDP by 2035. This by the way is 'core' defence spend. Including wider dual-infrastructure/security, it is 5%/GDP.

The easiest way to deal with a lot of the above is via economic growth. Devolution has been touted as the main thrust here. Politically, it will be critical to reverse the image that the government has become anti-business and anti-youth employment.

There has been little from Burnham regarding foreign policy, which raises the likelihood of continuity here (so no US airbase usage for Iranian airstrikes but ongoing support for the Ukraine). The type and extent of co-operation with the EU needs to be back on the agenda.

Burnham has been bold so far, in words but he will need to reverse decades of economic structural change to attain what he wants.

There is as many a PM has found out THE major problem to overcome - execution risk.