A week when a string of records was broken started with a no-deal Monday and then shifted to top gear after US President Trump’s suggestion the war with Iran was nearing an end but kept going despite skepticism over the claim depressing global financial markets.

Tuesday was the busiest day ever in the history of these hectic bond markets when $65.75bln was raised by 11 borrowers led by Amazon.

The fact that it eclipsed the previous busiest day ($51.5bln on Sep 2013) when the largest ever bond – a $49bln 8pt by Verizon Communications - was sold showcased the depth this primary market has gained over the last 13 years.

Like we mentioned in our Tuesday report, the massive volume day had none of the drama before and after the largest bond was placed in 2013. When Verizon sold $49bln in a single deal, it was a market event surrounded by weeks of speculation and anticipation. Questions arose about how such a massive deal could be placed, the strategies investment bankers would employ, and the new issue premium investors might demand.

After the sale, attention turned to the market’s capacity to absorb additional deals, the tightening of credit spreads, and whether the bonds had been priced too defensively. The deal even sparked a regulatory probe into investor allocations and syndicate distribution tactics.

This time around, nothing.

It was business as usual and execution was clockwork.

The day’s volume was led by Amazon which priced $37bln - the fourth-largest deal of all time – and 10 other issuers for a collective raise of nearly $66bln. Amazon’s final books reached $119bln, slightly below the $125bln peak for a $37bln deal, which was one of the biggest order books in history.

Wednesday followed with Salesforce’s $25bln eight-tranche offering, tying Oracle’s February deal as the 11th-largest IG issuance. However, response to Salesforce’s deal was lukewarm, with book coverage falling below expectations. Despite this, Wednesday’s total supply reached $41.7bln, pushing the weekly tally to $107.45bln - more than four months’ worth of issuance last year.

The week’s issuance continued against challenging backdrops, including rising oil prices and geopolitical tensions in the Strait of Hormuz.

Financial issuers like Morgan Stanley, Wells Fargo, UBS, and Bank of Montreal contributed to the volume, while M&A financing remained a key theme. WSP Global raised $1.5bln to refinance credit facilities tied to its acquisition of TRC Companies, with Nestlé Capital and other issuers that saw varied responses, raising concerns about market fatigue.

Thursday brought another wave of deals, with four issuers raising $7.55bln, pushing the weekly total to $115bln - the second-busiest week ever, surpassing three weeks in 2020 when issuance was driven by existential needs. Syndicate bankers noted that issuers were prioritizing risk mitigation over pricing precision amid the ongoing Iran conflict.

The day’s standout deal came from Maple Parent Holdings Corp., a subsidiary of Keurig Dr Pepper, which raised $2.55bln to fund its acquisition of JDE Peet’s. The deal priced 25bp inside IPTs on books totaling $16bln, achieving 6X coverage. Airbnb followed with a $2.5bln 3pt deal, also pricing inside IPTs with strong demand. Oncor Electric Delivery and Grand River Funding rounded out the day with solid results, suggesting improved order book coverage compared to Wednesday.

Friday saw no issuance, offering a potential reset for pricing power on Monday, depending on developments in the Iran conflict. Secondary market performance should provide some optimism, with Salesforce’s bonds tightening by 13-23bp and Amazon’s 20yr bonds tightening by 3.5bp, though financials broadly widened by 5-10bp.

Next week’s issuance is expected to slow, with all eyes on the Fed’s rate decision. The general expectation is $40-50bln of new issue supply or less than half of this week's volumes. The futures market, which had priced in 2 ½ rate cuts this year before the conflict, now anticipates less than one.

Market participants are also debating whether oil price fluctuations are being overestimated and if President Trump might pivot to avoid further political fallout. This uncertainty could sustain demand for credit, with investors being choosy and demanding more compensation on sectors most likely impacted by the conflict, AI disruption and cracks in private credit.

Richard Wolff, head of US DCM Bond Syndicate at SGCIB, talked about all this during IGM’s latest webinar last Wednesday, when markets were jittery about the Iran conflict. To access this webinar and others, click on Market Insiders: The Latest Trends in Bond Issuances. The next one is this coming Wednesday with Wells Fargo’s Global Head of High-grade Debt Syndicate Maureen O’Connor so please register for that by clicking on this link https://www.linkedin.com/feed/update/urn:li:activity:7437859958668328960

IGM analysts Shankar Ramakrishnan and Bruce Clark discuss this and more in their weekly podcast series Credit Matters by IGM, available on YouTube. The podcast is also available on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and all major streaming platforms. The latest one with special guest Winnie Cisar, Global Head of Strategy at CreditSights, is available now: https://informaconnect.com/igm/article/credit-matters-podcast-ep2-record-ig-issuance-war-driven-rate-volatility-where-to-invest-now/