After a relatively quiet week in the US investment-grade primary market, which concluded with a no-deal Friday, the outlook for next week is very optimistic.

The lack of issuance on Friday was unsurprising on a data-heavy day and a cautious backdrop going into the weekend. There was a scramble in broader markets midday after the Supreme Court overturned President Trump’s authority to impose trade tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act.

Stocks advanced on the news, while Treasury yields were slightly higher. However, market experts believe this may not mark the end of tariffs, as Trump has vowed to explore alternative legal avenues. Uncertainty persists regarding how businesses will be refunded for tariffs already paid, but Wall Street is putting on a brave face.

Moves across most sectors were muted as the decision was widely expected and as new trade terms with many countries have already been set over the past year.

Nevertheless, the decision injected another element of uncertainty, and the potential disruption of tariff revenue weighed slightly on long Treasuries. The benchmark 10-year yield ended near the high of the week at 4.08% but was still down more than 20 basis points on the month.

Meanwhile, geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran, coupled with the threat of conflict, cast a shadow over an economy that appeared to be gaining momentum but now faces renewed doubts. On Friday, the government reported that inflation-adjusted GDP grew at an annualized rate of just 1.4% in the fourth quarter, a sharp decline from the 4.4% growth in the prior period.

That is a head scratcher, as recall that a few weeks ago, the Atlanta Fed model had it pegged at 5.4%. It is hard to reconcile the lame pace of activity against hot Q4 corporate earnings and revenue growth, and an otherwise decent slate of economic data.

So just when we had concluded that this month’s broad decline in bond yields reflected anticipation of cooler inflation rather than slower economic growth, a bad GDP number drops.

These mixed signals raise questions about whether next week’s issuance volume estimates are too optimistic. Syndicates are forecasting $56bln in issuance, including at least one deal around $10bln and several in the $6–8bln range. If achieved, this would make next week one of the busiest February weeks ever, trailing only the first week of February 2026 ($61.05bln) by $5bln and surpassing the third busiest February week on record.

Even if the average estimate falls short of pushing February’s total issuance from $128.325bln to the projected $192bln, it would still be a remarkable achievement, surpassing 2025’s tally.

The investment-grade primary market remains technically strong, with robust investor appetite at current yields, which is expected to grow further if inflation continues to decline.

This week’s shortened schedule, due to a holiday, demonstrated the market’s resilience. On Wednesday, the busiest day, 11 borrowers raised $13.025bln across 19 tranches, with average spread compression of nearly 27bp and improved new issue concessions (NIC) of 1.1bp compared to last week’s 2.28bp. Book attrition was healthy at 20.34%.

For the week overall, spread compression averaged 27bp, weighted average book coverage was 4.04x, attrition stood at 23%, and NIC averaged 1.86bp - indicators of a constructive market for issuance.

However, the backdrop of volatility and noise is prompting issuers to be more selective about deal timing and leading investors to demand slightly higher spreads to compensate for risks. Whether this will hinder the anticipated pace of issuance next week remains to be seen, with the weekend’s developments likely to play a decisive role.