We are already on Day 2 of another holiday shortened week, with the UK celebrating May Bank holiday yesterday and V-E Day holidays upcoming in France and Germany (and elsewhere) on Thursday. Add into the mix the Fed Rate Decision on Wednesday and this week’s issuance window is limited at best. Despite these limitations, or more likely because of them, we received diverging opinions from our latest EUR issuance survey with some suggesting as little as EUR3bn but with others suggesting a much more positive EUR12bn. Today's action is limited to a tap of a long-dated line by the Federal Republic of Germany (EUR4.5bn increase of the 2.9% Aug 2056m including EUR500m retained by the Issuer) and a new EUR500m short 7yr sustainability line from Spanish regional player Junta de Castilla y Leon. All told that catapults us way beyond the minimum estimate but at the same time still leaves a mountain to climb to reach the higher bound, one that will require a larger issuer to come forward, and probably today too, as the issuance window slowly closes on us.

The Germany tap appears to be performing well, despite ongoing issues surrounding the swearing-in of Chancellor-in-waiting Merz. This morning he failed to secure a majority in an initial vote to confirm him as the country's next chancellor securing just 310 votes vs the 316 needed, despite his coalition partners having a total of 328 seats. Bloomberg reports that the setback has thrown Berlin's government quarter into chaos, with lawmakers and commentators unsure of the next steps. Whatever those steps may be, with it looking unlikely there will be another vote today, investors are showing a vote of confidence with an order book of over EUR47bn being assembled for the EUR4.5bn (500m retained) deal.

Being one of the less frequent of the Spanish regional issuers Junta de Castilla y Leon hasn't been seen in the syndicated market since June 2023 when it placed a EUR500m 10yr line that ended up just covered (1.0x exactly) and left a 4bp NIC. Today's outing is already looking considerably more favourable with an order book that would cover the deal 5 times over and a full 6bp being slashed from initial guidance to land at SPGB+19. There is really very little to go on in terms of recent 7yr issuance from Spanish names, with a concentration so far this year on the 10yr tenor. More seasoned bonds that could shed some light on the pricing situation, from Andalucia and Madrid, that carry the exact same maturity date (but issued 3 years ago) were spotted on screens at SPGB+24a and SPGB+16a respectively.

In terms of new mandates, so far we haven't quite seen anything that could push us meaningfully towards the higher estimate bound with a new long 7yr and a tap of a Mar 2043 line from the Region of Wallonne the only transaction on our screens at the time of writing. The Belgian issuer's new transactions tend to be around EUR1bn in size (max) while the last time the Mar 2043 social line was tapped it did so for a consideration of EUR800m.

Live Deals

Priced last week

• For the full report in the original PDF format click here: SSA Weekly - 2nd May 2025
• SSA bond issuance bounced back dramatically this week, ending a quiet period and seeing successful placement of significant supply, particularly in the recently sluggish US dollar market.
• Tuesday marked the peak, featuring sizable order books for European sovereign deals from France and Finland, alongside large, well-received benchmark and sustainability offerings from major development banks or supranationals like KfW and World Bank in USD.
• Momentum carried into Wednesday with successful sovereign and supranational deals in EUR and USD, demonstrating continued robust investor appetite for high-quality SSA paper across currencies and maturities.

--- Subscribe to read more ----

To receive this analysis plus much more, subscribe to IGM. Request your free trial of the service today.