28th May, 2025

It's a relatively quiet day in terms of deal numbers with just two transactions live on the euro side but those two names are expected to produce more than the entire week's expected volume - the expectation heading into the week was for EUR8.5bn to price. Labouring on that point a little longer, the responses to our survey largely fell into two separate 'buckets' with EUR5bn being the median response but with a few guesses as large as EUR15bn. In hindsight, the latter group may have been predicting the emergence of a larger issuer accompanied by a handful of smaller deals and that is exactly what has transpired with today's addition from the Kingdom of Spain. It is back in the mix for its 3rd syndicated installment of the year and its second at the 10yr tenor. For context, it visited the capital markets four times in 2024 and used a very similar pattern to what we have seen so far this year (albeit that its second transaction was a 30yr whereas this year the issuer opted for 15yr). Indeed, its second 10yr deal of 2024 was placed on 29th May and was EUR10bn in size, placed into orders of EUR125bn at SPGB+6. We don't have a deal size for today's transaction just yet but the spread has been set at SPGB+7 after books exceeded EUR105bn (incl JLM interest). With all that taken into account we have been erring on the side of EUR10bn from the outset.

Adding a further EUR1bn to the day's tally is Ontario Teachers' Finance Trust which has made steady but meaningful progress towards the placement of a new long 6yr green bond (its inaugural deal of that type). Order books have been exemplary for Canadian issuers in general in 2025, across the curve and irrespective of whether the issuer is a regional or pension player. For instance, the most recent two of the latter variety - CDP Financial Inc and CPPIB - each placed 7yr bonds (in late Jan / early Feb) that were more than 7x covered and with deal sizes of EUR1.5bn and EUR1.25bn respectively. Today's Ontario Teachers' order book, standing at EUR4.1bn when spreads were set 3bp inside IPTs at m/s+57, doesn't look like it will reach the absolute heights from those examples but it will certainly provide a more than robust coverage ratio.

On the dollar front, BNG Bank N.V. follows up a EUR2bn 5yr transaction from just 2 weeks ago with a new 10yr USD bond. That tenor isn't particularly popular, in terms of deal numbers or volumes, amongst regional/national development banks and the last time BNG hit that area of the curve was way back in May 2020. With USD3.7bn in the order book and having already cut 2bp from IPTs to give guidance of SOFR m/s+72a it finalised spread at +71. With little to go on as far as historical comparisons go we look at the last two 10yr outings of USD1.25bn and USD1bn to give an indication of how large BNG might go but the fact the the issuer didn't push pricing to +70 given that the order book grew by an extra USD1bn from USD2.7bn after guidance could suggest that it is looking to print at the higher end of that range or potentially even higher (maybe USD1.5bn?).

Also remaining in the pipeline but not for this week’s business, State of Hessen (EUR green LSA) which will start investor calls on 2^nd June (expected to last until 6^th June) and Comunidad de Madrid which will continue to conduct investor calls over the course of this week ahead of an inaugural EuGBS aligned green bond.

Live deals

Priced already this week

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