Expected DXY USD Index trading range is 100.50 - 102.00.

RISK 1 - We wrote earlier that overall Barclays' proprietary month and quarter-end rebalancing model indicates no strong USD directional bias vs all majors.

RISK 2 - Latterly, the Fed's Barkin warned inflation is too high, though he sees tentative signs that price pressures may moderate soon.

We also get Chairman Warsh who remarked at the June FOMC warned the Bank won't tolerate high inflation.

Ahead, see Dashboard. Implied probability of a Fed rate hike by September and in two meetings time is up at 74% vs around 96% a week ago amid a softer OIL price and a de-escalating Middle East conflict. We'll be keeping an eye on events closely as ever, particularly those those through the Strait of Hormuz.

RISK 3 - Sticking to the Fed front, ING remarks one potential USD downside risk to consider this week is the Supreme Court ruling on the firing of Fed member Lisa Cook. That could reignite some Fed independence concerns, which could weigh substantially on a USD that is heavily relying on the ‘re-basement’ trade at the moment.

RISK 4 - It's a very big data week, with the labour market the inevitable main focus, led by consumer confidence (up to 94.4), JOLTS, ADP (120k?), ISM manufacturing (53.9?) and of course payrolls Thursday.

Ahead of Independence Day celebrations, The NFPs is expected to register its fourth straight triple digit positive number at 115k in June vs 120k last; the unemployment rate is seen unchanged at 4.3% and AHE earnings of 0.3% m/m, 3.5% y/y, which should work to help support rate hike expectations.

RISK 5 - On a more cautionary note we have to stay considering possible MOF action in this rough 160-163 (line in the sand?) range and through key US data and a huge US public holiday Friday, which will inevitably prompt thinner conditions. It could be a perfect opportunity for Japan's admins to send the YEN materially higher, particularly on a surprise weak number.