We wrote at Europe's Open that OIL trades at Usd 102/brl-plus levels (drops now just below) and the US stock futures all lie in the red, with NASDAQ losses leading the way at (-0.7%) at the time of writing.

RISK 1 -

Appears to be OFF at the start of the week and the USD is broadly firmer, with the DXY USD Index, basing latterly at 98.53-54, which also coincides with the possible pivot of the 200-dma, as weekend peace talks between the US and Iran failed/collapsed.

RISK 2 -

BBC News reports the US military says it will begin a blockade of Iranian ports from 10:00 ET (14:00 GMT) today and "will not impede" vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz to or from other countries.

US President Trump said "I don't care" if Iran returns to negotiations or not, adding that peace talks in Pakistan failed because Tehran would not "give up its nuclear ambitions" Iran's foreign minister argued the two sides were "inches away" from a deal, but Tehran was then met with "maximalism" and "shifting goalposts" and Iran says any military vessels that approach the shipping route will be "dealt with severely", while the country's parliament speaker says Tehran will not "surrender under threats."

We look to be at an impasse. No resolution appears imminent, but de-escalation hopes remain just about alive. If things take a turn for the worse April's comeback by energy importers over energy exporters could well come under threat.

As ever, we keep positions light and nimble, with one eye constantly on the wires and news channels for latest developments.

RISK 3 -

Macro wise, we do not see many major impacters as US economic resilience continues largely unabated ad that expected growth convergence has arguably not been panning out.

Main data releases are from Tuesday's NFIB small business optimism, weekly ADP employment change and PPI followed through the week by the likes of TICS (and yet more diversification watch), initial claims (214k?) and IP (0.1% m/m in Mar?).

RISK 4 -

It's the Spring IMF meetings this week in Washington and there's plenty of Fed chat scheduled with the likes of Miran, Goolsbee, Collins, Bowman and Williams up as well as the latest Beige Book Wednesday.

The latter could well cite elevated uncertainty amid the Iran war and heightened growth uncertainty, which would be a more pessimistic turn after the previous which highlighted overall economic expectations were optimistic, with most Districts expecting slight to moderate growth in coming months.

Ahead, Fed rate move expectations are largely on the floor near-term. See Dashboard. In two meetings time, implied probability of a Fed rate hike stands at just 3%.