The USD is a mixed performer so far this month as markets scramble to assess the impact of Maduro's removal in Venezuela by the US as well as the macro backdrops of the leading G10 nations and the ever changing monetary policy outlooks envisaged.

Main USD losses so far come against the relatively sheltered -0.4% and -1.0% NZD and AUD. Main USD wins come against the +0.5% CHF, +0.6% EUR and +0.7% CAD. So much for a grab for other havens at this juncture, while the Loonie is likely influenced by oil market gyrations and expectations.

The question as ever is how does the Dollar tend to perform during the first month of the year and are there any G10s that seem to perform particularly well or badly through January?

• Last year, the USD was again a mixed performer. Main USD losses came against -0.5% AUD, -0.7% NZD and -1.3% YEN. Notable USD wins emerged against +1.0% GBP and +1.1% CAD.

• See table above, in 2024, the USD made broad gains, from +0.3% AUD through to +3.6% AUD and +4.0% YEN.

• In 2023, all different. See above, the USD was mostly a loser. Biggest USD losses came versus the -1.9% CAD, -2.0% GBP and -3.6% AUD. Only USD came against +0.3% SEK and +1.8% NOK.

• In 2022, see above, the USD won out across the board. Largest gains were +2.7% AUD, +2.9% SEK and +3.7% NZD.
• In 2021, it was fairly tame stuff. The USD lost out only against -0.1% NZD, -0.2% NOK and -0.3% GBP. Otherwise, it was USD wins up to +1.4% YEN and +1.7% SEK.

• In 2020, see above, the USD was largely a sizeable winner, losing out only against just -0.2% YEN and -0.3% CHF. Biggest USD wins came against the +4.1% NZD, +4.5% NOK and +4.7% AUD.
• In 2019, it was largely USD losses, most acutely -2.8% GBP, -2.9% NZD, -3.2% AUD and -3.9% CAD. Only USD victories came against +0.2% EUR, +1.2% CHF and +2.2% SEK.

• In 2018, see above, it was USD losses across the board, from -2.1% CAD through to -4.6% CHF, -5.0% GBP and -6.4% NOK.
• In 2017, once again, the USD lost out against all G10s as the 'buy the rumour, sell the fact' on Trump panned out in spectacular fashion. The Usd even lost out vs Brexit weighed GBP at -1.9% through to -4.2% SEK, -4.8% NOK, -5.2% AUD and -5.5% NZD.
• In 2016, the USD lost out only to the NOK at -1.9% in G10 land, but was up between +0.3% EUR to +5.1% vs NZD everywhere else.
• Jan 2015 proved a mad month. The SNB shocked the world and ended the Franc cap. The USD lost out to other havens the -2.0% YEN and -8.1% CHF. Elsewhere, there were material USD gains between +3.3% GBP through to +6.7% EUR, +6.9% NZD and +8.7% CAD.
• In 2014, the USD only lost out to the -3.2% YEN. Elsewhere, the USD won out from +0.7% GBP through to +1.9% EUR, +3.3% NOK and +4.5% CAD.
• In 2013, it was very mixed. Biggest USD losses came against -2.2% SEK and -2.9% EUR. Biggest USD gains came against +2.5% GBP and +5.4% YEN.

• In 2012, see above, the USD lost out across the board. From -0.8% YEN through to -4.0% AUD and -6.4% NZD.
• 2011 was a mixed bag. Biggest USD losses came against -2.3% EUR, -2.6% GBP and -4.1% SEK. Biggest USD wins were +1.1% YEN and +2.5% AUD.
• In 2010, the USD only lost out against the -3.1% YEN. USD gains everywhere else, from +1.1% GBP through to +3.0% NZD, +3.1% SEK and +3.2% EUR.
• In 2009, the USD only lost out against -0.7% NOK and -0.8% YEN. Some big USD gains materialised, incl +8.3% EUR, +9.3% AUD and +12.2% NZD.
• In 2008, there were mostly losses, from -0.1% GBP through to -2.8%NZD, -4.8% CHF and -5.0% YEN. Only USD win came against +0.4% CAD.
• In 2007, almost the opposite, with only USD loss coming against -0.3% GBP. Biggest USD upside came vs +1.5% SEK and AUD, +1.8% NZD and +1.9% CHF.
• In 2006, the USD sunk across the board, from -0.5% YEN through to -3.3% GBP, -3.5% AUD and -4.6% SEK.
• Twenty years ago, USD gains everywhere, from +0.6% AUD through to +3.8% EUR, +4.1% CHF, +4.5% NOK and +4.8% SEK.
• In 2004, a mixed lot. Most acute USD losses vs -2.1% GBP and -2.8% NZD. Biggest USD gains came against +2.6% SEK and +4.9% NOK.
• In 2003, mostly USD losses, the largest against the commodity bloc of-3.4% CAD, -3.9% NZD and -4.5% AUD. Sole USD gain came against +0.9% YEN.
• In 2002, sole USD loss against the -0.3% CAD. USD gains everywhere else, the big hitters being +3.0% GBP and +3.4% EUR and CHF.
• In 2001, not much doing. A mixed bag, with largest USD loss against -0.3% NOK and biggest USD wins vs +1.9% YEN and GBP.
• For good measure, in 2000, there were USD gains across the board. Largest USD victories were +4.0% CHF, +4.5% YEN and +4.7% NZD.

What stands out straight away is that there can be sizeable moves during the first month of the year. The USD tends to be a mixed-to-positive performer in Januarys, with volatility particularly high vs the COMMODITY BLOC.

See table above, the DXY USD INDEX has gained on average +0.5% p/m since 2000 and is actually the US Dollar's best performing month of the calendar year. The USD has enjoyed four positive Januarys out of the last six.

See table above. EUR/USD has lost on average -0.7% per/month over the period and trend wise has produced five negative showings of the last seven.

See table above again, USD/SEK tends to be the best performing Dollar market in January, averaging +1.0% gains p/m since 2000. Gains, some material, have been made in the last seven years straight.

See table below - The USD's performance on average vs each G10 since 2000.

And, leaping out immediately is the disconnect between EUR and GBP, the biggest by far in the year. In fact, it is only January (and a little bit in April, GBP's traditionally golden month) where genuine seasonality emerges. On average, EUR/GBP has fallen -0.8% p/m since 2000 and the seven of the last eight years all produced materially negative results. And, EUR/GBP is already making losses in early 2026.

Long USD/SEK (at 9.1950 for 9.3350 and towards 9.5000; stop 9.1225) and short EUR/GBP (at 0.8660 for 0.8575 and sub-0.8500; stop 0.8730) seem reasonable trade strategies to begin the year!