CEEMEA OPEN: AFC lands deal; ARB and BSF go live

• USTs have edged up after a recent selloff and are 1-2bp richer across the curve, with the 10yr pulling back to almost 4.75% against yesterday's peak of 4.80%. Still, treasuries are holding the bulk of its post-NFPs losses as yields remain within short distance below multi-month highs ahead of US December CPI Wednesday.

• Overnight, JGBs climbed with the 40yr rising to its highest level since 2007 (2.755%) after BOJ Himino signalled that a rate hike is still on the table.
• Asia-Pac equity markets enjoyed gains for the most part - although the Nikkei underperformed (-2.03%) - on reports that Trump's economic team are discussing a gradual approach to tariff increases due to inflationary concerns.
• Meanwhile, ECB's Rehn said o/n that he expects monetary policy to exit restrictive territory by mid-2025, emphasizing disinflation is progressing, wage pressures have eased, and the growth outlook has weakened. He noted that the pace of rate cuts will depend on incoming data.
• Brent is softer, now $1 lower vs the Monday (5mth) peak of $81.68/brl.

Fresh in the CEEMEA Pipeline

On the Radar

• Banque Saudi France, rated A1 (stable) / A- (stable) / A- (stable) by Moody’s/S&P/Fitch, a leading banking group based in Saudi Arabia, has now gone live with its USD 5yr bmk Reg S Senior Unsecured Sukuk at the T+115bps area IPTs. So far, the issuer has attracted over USD2bn in demand, excluding JLM interest.
  • BSF has mandated HSBC Bank plc as Sole Global Coordinator and Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank, BSF Capital, Citi, Crédit Agricole CIB, Emirates NBD Capital, Goldman Sachs International, HSBC Bank plc and the Islamic Corporation for the Development of the Private Sector, Mashreq, Mizuho and SMBC Nikko as Joint Lead Managers.
  • A link to the investor presentation can be found here.
  • BSF was last in the markets in January last year, where it landed a USD700mn 5yr (Jan-2029) Reg S Sukuk at T+105bps, in from the T+135bpsa, off the back of USD2.4bn in demand.
  • Leads have circulated the following comps:

• In addition, Al Rajhi Banking and Investment Corporation, rated Aa3 by Moody’s (Stable), A- by S&P (Positive) and A- by Fitch (Stable), the world’s largest Islamic bank in terms of assets and market capitalisation, is out with a USD bmk Reg S PNC6 Fixed Rate Resettable AT1 Capital Sustainable Sukuk offering at the 6.750% area IPTs.
  • ARB has mandated Al Rajhi Capital, Citi, Crédit Agricole CIB, Dubai Islamic Bank, Emirates NBD Capital, Goldman Sachs International, HSBC, J.P. Morgan, Mashreq, Morgan Stanley, MUFG, SMBC and Standard Chartered Bank as Joint Lead Managers and Joint Bookrunners (the "Joint Lead Managers and Joint Bookrunners") and Standard Chartered Bank as Sole Sustainability Structurer (together, with the Joint Lead Managers and Joint Bookrunners, the "Managers").
  • A link to the investor presentation can be found here.
  • The issuer last visited the market in May 2024, where it priced a USD1bn Reg S PNC5.5 AT1 Sustainable Sukuk at 6.375%, in from the 6.875%a IPTs and 6.375%-6.50% area guidance. The deal attracted over USD3.2bn in demand and was seen quoted bid 5.68%, at the time of the mandate.
  • Leads have circulated the following comps:

• Africa Finance Corporation, rated A3 (stable) by Moody's, landed its USD500mn Reg S PNC5.25 Hybrid bond at 7.625%, in from the 8% area IPTs. The deal attracted over USD760mn in demand (peaked at USD1.1bn) excluding JLM interest.

• Still on the sidelines, First Abu Dhabi Bank PJSC, rated Aa3 Stable (Moody's) / AA- Stable (S&P) / AA- Stable (Fitch), has launched a USD750m 5yr (Jan-2030) Senior Unsecured Note at SOFR+100bp, in from the SOFR+100bps guidance.
  • The deal has an expected issue rating of Aa3 (Moody's).
  • HSBC Bank and Standard Chartered Bank are the managers. First Abu Dhabi Bank acts as the structuring agent.

• Nova Ljubljanska banka d.d., Ljubljana, the largest banking and financial institution in Slovenia by total assets, rated A3 (Positive) by Moody’s and BBB (Stable) by S&P, will is scheduled to commence a series of fixed income investor calls commencing yesterday (January 13) to advertise a EUR500m (WNG) Reg S Senior Preferred offering.
  • The issuer has mandated BNP Paribas, BofA Securities, Erste Group, Morgan Stanley, and Nova Ljubljanska banka d.d., Ljubljana as Joint Bookrunners and Raiffeisen Bank International as Co-Lead Manager.
  • A direct link to the net roadshow can be found here.
  • Leads have circulated the following comps:

• Also, Turkcell Iletisim Hizmetleri A.S., the largest mobile operator in Turkiye and one of the world's leading converged communication and digital service players, is set to hold a series of fixed income investor calls yesterday (January 13) to advertise a USD fixed-rate Reg S senior unsecured dual-tranche bond offering comprising of 5-year conventional and 7-year inaugural Sustainable tranches.
  • Turkcell has mandated BofA Securities, Emirates NBD Capital, HSBC and J.P. Morgan as Joint Bookrunners.
  • Turkcell published its inaugural Sustainable Finance Framework and Second Party Opinion on its website.

• Azule Energy Finance Plc, a wholly-owned subsidiary of Azule Energy Holdings Limited, has mandated Citi, J.P. Morgan, Standard Bank and Standard Chartered Bank as Joint Global Coordinators and Bookrunners, and Rand Merchant Bank as Bookrunner to arrange physical investor meetings to commence yesterday (January 13). A Global Investor Call also took place on the same day.
  • Azule Energy is advertising its debut USD Reg S senior unsecured, benchmark sized, 5NC2 notes.

• Furthermore, Bapco Energies B.S.C, the strategic energy investment & development arm of the Kingdom of Bahrain, wholly-owned by the sovereign and rated B+ (stable outlook) by Fitch, has arranged a series of fixed income investor calls (including a GIC) to sell a USD bmk Reg S fixed rate 7- or 10-year senior unsecured Sukuk offering.
  • The issuer has mandated Citi, GIB Capital, HSBC, J.P. Morgan, Mashreq, National Bank of Bahrain and Standard Chartered Bank as Joint Lead Managers and Joint Bookrunners.

• Moreover, Arab Banking Corporation (B.S.C.), rated BBB- (stable) by S&P and BB+ (stable) by Fitch, an international banking group headquartered in Bahrain, with 45 years of track record in conventional and Islamic banking across 15 countries in 5 continents is offering a USD bmk Reg S only PNC5.5 Fixed Rate Resetting Additional Tier 1 Capital Security.
  • A pre-recorded GIC can be found here. A group investor lunch presentation was held yesterday (January 13) in Dubai, as well as a series of fixed income investor meetings set to commence today (January 14).
  • Bank ABC has mandated Bank ABC, Emirates NBD Capital, First Abu Dhabi Bank, HSBC, J.P. Morgan, Kamco Invest, Mashreq and Standard Chartered as Joint Lead Managers and Joint Bookrunners.
  • This is Bank ABC’s first visit to the market since 2007, where it priced a USD500mn 10yr (Apr-2017) Floating bond at 3m:+85bp.

• The Republic of Benin, rated BB- (positive) and B+ (stable) by S&P and Fitch, commenced a series of fixed income investor meetings and calls last week (January 08) to advertise a USD bmk Reg S offering with an expected 15-year average life (16-year final maturity).
  • In conjunction, the Republic of Benin has also announced a EUR 250m capped tender offer (the “Tender Offer”) of its outstanding 4.875% Euro denominated Bonds due 2032.
  • The issuer has mandated Citi, J.P. Morgan and Societe Generale as Joint Bookrunners.
  • The Republic of Benin was last present in the pipeline back in February 2024, after pricing a USD750mn Reg S 14yr (13yr WAL) (Feb-2038) bond at 8.375%, in from the high 8%s IPTs and off the back of USD4bn in final demand.

Priced Deals

What to watch on Tuesday

• In CEEMEA, Romanian CPI accelerated less than expected in December to 5.14% y/y vs the 5.16% consensus forecast and against 5.11% prior. The m/m print matched expectations, easing to 0.29% form 0.41% in Nov.

• In the US, the NFIB Small Business Optimism (11GMT) is f/c to fall a touch to 101.5 in December vs 101.7 prior. Headline PPI (13.30GMT) is expected to rise to 3.5% y/y from 3% in November whilst the m/m is seen unchanged at 0.4%. The core print is f/c to accelerate to 3.8% y/y and 0.3% m/m from 3.4% and 0.2% previous, respectively.

• Central bankers speak today includes ECB's Lane (7.35GMT) and Holzmann (8GMT) and the Fed’s Schmid (15GMT) and Williams (20.05GMT)

Wider market Sentiment

• USD Index at 109.45
• UST 2yr/10yr at 4.373%/4.759%
• Bund 2yr/10yr at 2.278%/2.607%
• Brent at $80.38/brl

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