CEEMEA OPEN: CEEMEA issuance remains on waiting mode

Today is US Veterans Day & also a Remembrance Day holiday in Canada. US Markets that are open today are rate & equity futures on screen & in pit as well as US stock exchanges. The Dollar is steady and back above 105.00.

On Sunday, the Fed's Kashkari stressed that the risk from tariffs come via a 'tit for tat' response but he is not concerned about a political threat to the Fed.
Trump, meanwhile, stays a key watch. Speculation centres around 'Day One' of his second term and his agenda is being tipped to include swift action on raising tariffs, cutting taxes and cracking down on undocumented migrants.
The Washington Post reports Donald Trump told Vladimir Putin last week not to escalate the war in Ukraine and reminded him of the sizable US military presence in Europe. An early meeting between Trump and Ukraine's Volodymyr Zelenskiy is also apparently being planned.
In the markets, Bitcoin surged on the Tump victory to a record $81891 with the next Fibonacci projection targets seen at $83189.5 & then $86090.6.
S&P500 futures are 0.2% in the black ahead of the EZ open & only a fraction below Fri's 6040.50 record peak while Hang Seng shed as much as 2.8% to a 3.5wk low.
Dec24 Bund futures are unchanged at 132.08 having traded in a tight 1/5pt range while US 10yr note futures shed 9 ticks to 110-00 vs a 7.5 tick range.

Fresh in the CEEMEA Pipeline

On the Radar

A US holiday today will likely see the CEEMEA pipeline remain in waiting mode before restarting. The lack of appetite across EM, which saw issuance draw a blank last week, also comes after Donald Trump won the US presidential elections and after the Fed cut rates by 25b-s.
It’s worth noting that Fitch and S&P Ratings both affirmed Poland at A- late on Friday night. Both rating companies left the outlook as stable. S&P said they “expect Poland’s large, diversified, and open economy to expand an average of 3% over 2024-2027. The rapid increase in government debt through 2027 highlights increasing fiscal issues, although at 59% of GDP by 2027m the net general government debt burden remains manageable.”

Still on the sidelines remains, Trans-Oil Group, a leading agro-industrial holding in Central and Eastern Europe, operating in Moldova, Romania and Serbia, commenced a GIC and a series of investor calls late in October to advertise a USD-denominated Reg S senior secured guaranteed 5NC2 Eurobond offering by Aragvi Finance International DAC (a wholly owned subsidiary of the Group).
- TOG has mandated Citi, ING and Oppenheimer as Joint Global Coordinators and Joint Bookrunners and Raiffeisen Bank International and UniCredit as Joint Bookrunners
- The notes have an expected rating of B+ by Fitch and B by S&P.
- In addition, the Group (acting via Aragvi Finance International DAC as the Offeror) announced an invitation to holders of its outstanding USD500mn 8.45% Notes due 29 April 2026 (the “Notes”) to tender any-and-all of the Notes for cash, and together with the tender offer, concurrently consent to allow for the mandatory early redemption of the Notes.

Priced Deals

What to watch on Monday

In CEEMEA, kicking off the agenda this week is the Czech CPI print (08GMT), anticipated to climb to 2.80% y/y in October from 2.60% y/y prior (read the preview here).
A quiet agenda in the US.
Central bankers expected to speak today consist of just the NBR’s Governor Isarescu.

Wider market Sentiment

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