CEEMEA OPEN: Curtains begin to close on 2024
** Please note this will be the final CEEMEA CREDIT OPEN of 2024, with the report to resume on Thursday 2nd Jan. **
- The Dollar kept its upward trajectory against most of the currency pairs intact on Friday morning as traders shifted their focus to the Fed's decision next week where they are expected to cut rates by 25bps and likely signal a pause at its January meeting.
- Reports suggest ECB policymakers may lower rates by another -25bps in January and probably also in March as inflation stabilizes and growth remains sluggish, following Thursday’s 25bps slash.
- Nikkei added as much as 1.9% to an 8 week+ high.
- On the news front, President Macron is set to name a new French PM today. BBC News reports an opinion poll for BFMTV on Thursday suggested 61% of French voters were worried by the political situation. Macron has vowed to remain in office until his second term ends in 2027, despite Barnier's downfall last week.
- Chinese yields hit a record low at the same time as Asia-Pac equity markets were mostly lower, led by Hang Seng (-1.5%) and Shanghai (-1.25%). This after perceived disappointment at the end of China's annual economic-policy conference.
- No support for the Nikkei, however, which is just under 1% lower. European equity futures point to a risk off start to play. SPX minis are higher, though. Brent steady.
Fresh in the CEEMEA Pipeline
- No new additions to pipeline.
On the Radar
- The primary issuance pipeline remains largely stagnant in December, with only two deals pricing month-to-date, reflecting subdued market activity amid a seasonal slowdown and as we approach year-end. We can expect the odd deal into year-end, but ultimately the market will be winding down.
Priced Deals
- No new priced deals.
What to watch on Friday
- In CEEMEA, Polish (final) Nov CPI, Czechia C/A Balance (09GMT), Polish C/A and Trade Balance (13GMT) and Russian 3Q GDP (16GMT).
- In the US, just Import/Export Price Index data (13.30GMT).
- Central bankers scheduled to speak today include the ECB’s Villeroy (8GMT) and Holzmann (9GMT) and Centeno (11GMT).
Wider market Sentiment
- USD Index at 107.14
- UST 2yr/10yr at 4.188%/4.318%
- Bund 2yr/10yr at 2.019%/2.211%
- Brent at $73.38/brl
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