CEEMEA OPEN: Empty pipeline so far post-Fed

Post-Fed cash trade left the UST short-end 7bp richer and the long-end 3bp dearer with 2s10s +2.3bp. TYM5 has made a one-week high before pulling back a touch.

The SPX cash ended +1.1%, but off the session high. SPX minis currently +0.46%, however, European peers are marginally lower. Risk sentiment mixed in Asia-Pac with Hang Seng lower, but KOSPI/ASX higher.

Meanwhile, Jun25 Bunds/OATs +35-40 ticks overnight, holding yesterday's gains, but off session bests.

Elsewhere, China left its 1- and 5-yr Prime rates on hold, Australia's labour market report showed a very large, surprise decline in employment and New Zealand's Q4 GDP growth was a tad better-than-expected.

The Ukraine and US Presidents spoke, agreeing to a partial ceasefire i.e. stopping energy infrastructure attacks. EU Leaders meet today/tomorrow to talk defence spend and aid to the Ukraine.

Fresh in the CEEMEA Pipeline

On the Radar

The CEEMEA pipeline is currently vacant post-Fed, as issuers rushed to land deals ahead of the decision yesterday. We can expect the deal flow to resume this/next week.

To recap, the Fed held rates as expected, but QT for USTs was dropped a sharp $20bn to $5bn, in place from April. The MBS runoff cap of $35bn remains in place. The 'dots' pointed to two cuts this year although the distribution shifted 'hawkishly'. Growth expectations were revised down, the PCE deflation higher. On the latter, tariffs an issue, but inflation from this source was described as likely to be 'transitory', suggesting a desire to look through tariff related inflation if possible, especially if inflation expectations remain stable. The 10-yr BEI did rise 3bp, although this within the recent range. However, given policy out of Washington, and the visibility of this impact on the consumer/labour market somewhat murky, uncertainty around the economic outlook has increased and it has to be said, uncertainty makes forecasts far more difficult.

Priced Deals

What to watch on Thursday

In CEEMEA, the spotlight will be on the SARB rate announcement, where no change is expected to the current 7.50% base rate.
- Romanian Industrial Sales (7GMT), Polish Average Gross Wages, Employment, Sold Industrial Output, Construction Output and PPI (9GMT) are due.

In the US, initial jobless claims (12.30GMT) are for payroll survey week, so carry extra significance. The 224k consensus is a little higher than last time but within the recent range. Focus on the separate line for (former) Federal employees which has been elevated recently. The Q4 current account deficit will not make the White House happy. The March Philly Fed is forecast to half to 9. February existing home sales are also out (14GMT).

Central bank speakers scheduled to speak today include the ECB Chief, who appears in the EU Parliament (8GMT) before the CB publishes its Bulletin (9GMT) with a bunch of GCers on the speaker circuit to follow with Centeno and Mueller (11GMT), Lane (12GMT), Villeroy (13 and 15.15GMT) and Holzmann (14.30GMT)

Wider market Sentiment