CEEMEA OPEN: Four deals price ahead of US CPI

• Cash USTs a touch richer overnight ahead of today’s US CPI release, with yields edging slightly lower, trimming recent upward momentum, although ultimately still around multi-month highs.

• The 10-yr is down 1-2bp to 4.77% and 3bp lower Monday's high. The short end of the curve experienced only modest movement overnight
• The ECB's Lane emphasized economic recovery and inflation over monetary policy. He expects euro-area growth to strengthen through 2026, with further disinflation needed in 2025 to stabilize inflation near 2%, allowing interest rates to reach neutral
• Mar25 Bunds and OATs are a touch lower. European equity futures continue to point north for the most part.
• US equity futures are in a sea of green (JPM and Citigroup release Q4 earnings today), whilst in Asia-Pac are mostly in the red.
• Brent fell to a 5-day low of $79.76/brl during Asian hours before paring losses and rising above $80/brl.

Fresh in the CEEMEA Pipeline

• No fresh additions to the pipeline.

On the Radar

• A handful of deals priced yesterday ahead of the US CPI print later this afternoon. Among them, was Nova Ljubljanska banka d.d., Ljubljana, rated A3 (Positive) by Moody’s and BBB (Stable) by S&P, which landed a EUR500m (WNG) Reg S Senior Preferred offering at m/s+115bps, in from the m/s+120bps area guidance and m/s+150bps area IPTs. The deal attracted over EUR1.4bn in demand (peaked at EUR1.6bn), excluding JLM interest.
• In addition, Banque Saudi France, rated A1 (stable) / A- (stable) / A- (stable) by Moody’s/S&P/Fitch, has priced its USD750mn 5yr(Jan-2030) Reg S Senior Unsecured Sukuk at T+85bps, in from the T+115bps area IPTs and off the back of over USD3.5bn in demand, excluding JLM interest.
• In addition, Al Rajhi Banking and Investment Corporation, rated Aa3 by Moody’s (Stable), A- by S&P (Positive) and A- by Fitch (Stable), landed its USD1.5bn Reg S PNC6 Fixed Rate Resettable AT1 Capital Sustainable Sukuk offering at 6.25%, in from the 6.750% area IPTs.
• Finally, First Abu Dhabi Bank PJSC, rated Aa3 Stable (Moody's) / AA- Stable (S&P) / AA- Stable (Fitch), closed its USD750m 5yr (Jan-2030) Senior Unsecured Note at SOFR+100bp, in from the SOFR+100bps guidance.
• Still on the sidelines, Turkcell Iletisim Hizmetleri A.S., the largest mobile operator in Turkiye and one of the world's leading converged communication and digital service players, is set to hold a series of fixed income investor calls on Monday (January 13) to advertise a USD fixed-rate Reg S senior unsecured dual-tranche bond offering comprising of 5-year conventional and 7-year inaugural Sustainable tranches.
  • Turkcell has mandated BofA Securities, Emirates NBD Capital, HSBC and J.P. Morgan as Joint Bookrunners.
  • Turkcell published its inaugural Sustainable Finance Framework and Second Party Opinion on its website.
• Also, Azule Energy Finance Plc, a wholly-owned subsidiary of Azule Energy Holdings Limited, has mandated Citi, J.P. Morgan, Standard Bank and Standard Chartered Bank as Joint Global Coordinators and Bookrunners, and Rand Merchant Bank as Bookrunner to arrange physical investor meetings that commenced on Monday (January 13). A Global Investor Call also took place on the same day.
  • Azule Energy is advertising its debut USD Reg S senior unsecured, benchmark sized, 5NC2 notes.
• Furthermore, Bapco Energies B.S.C, the strategic energy investment & development arm of the Kingdom of Bahrain, wholly-owned by the sovereign and rated B+ (stable outlook) by Fitch, has arranged a series of fixed income investor calls (including a GIC) to sell a USD bmk Reg S fixed rate 7- or 10-year senior unsecured Sukuk offering.
  • The issuer has mandated Citi, GIB Capital, HSBC, J.P. Morgan, Mashreq, National Bank of Bahrain and Standard Chartered Bank as Joint Lead Managers and Joint Bookrunners.
• Moreover, Arab Banking Corporation (B.S.C.), rated BBB- (stable) by S&P and BB+ (stable) by Fitch, an international banking group headquartered in Bahrain, with 45 years of track record in conventional and Islamic banking across 15 countries in 5 continents is offering a USD bmk Reg S only PNC5.5 Fixed Rate Resetting Additional Tier 1 Capital Security.
  • A pre-recorded GIC can be found here. A group investor lunch presentation was held on Monday (January 13) in Dubai, as well as a series of fixed income investor meetings that commenced yesterday (January 14).
  • Bank ABC has mandated Bank ABC, Emirates NBD Capital, First Abu Dhabi Bank, HSBC, J.P. Morgan, Kamco Invest, Mashreq and Standard Chartered as Joint Lead Managers and Joint Bookrunners.
  • This is Bank ABC’s first visit to the market since 2007, where it priced a USD500mn 10yr (Apr-2017) Floating bond at 3m:+85bp.
• The Republic of Benin, rated BB- (positive) and B+ (stable) by S&P and Fitch, commenced a series of fixed income investor meetings and calls last week (January 08) to advertise a USD bmk Reg S offering with an expected 15-year average life (16-year final maturity).
  • In conjunction, the Republic of Benin has also announced a EUR 250m capped tender offer (the “Tender Offer”) of its outstanding 4.875% Euro denominated Bonds due 2032.
  • The issuer has mandated Citi, J.P. Morgan and Societe Generale as Joint Bookrunners.
  • The Republic of Benin was last present in the pipeline back in February 2024, after pricing a USD750mn Reg S 14yr (13yr WAL) (Feb-2038) bond at 8.375%, in from the high 8%s IPTs and off the back of USD4bn in final demand.

Priced Deals

What to watch on Wednesday

• In CEEMEA, the data slate brings Romanian Industrial Output (7GMT), Turkish Budget Balance (8GMT), Poland’s (final) CPI (9GMT), NBH minutes (13GMT), Russian December CPI (16GMT) and the NBR rate announcement, forecast to stand pat at 6.50%. The NBP also begins its two-day meet.
• In the US, the highlight of the day comes in the form of December CPI (13.30GMT), forecast to accelerate to 2.9% y/y (from 2.7%) and to 0.4% m/m (from 0.3%). The core print is seen unchanged at 3.3% y/y and 0.3% m/m. Real Average Weekly Earnings and Empire Manufacturing are also due, the latter seen rising to 3.0 from 0.2 in January. Finally, the Fed will release the Beige Book (19GMT), to provide a deeper insight into economic conditions.
• Central bankers speak today includes ECB's Guindos (8GMT), Villeroy (8.30GMT) and Vujcic (8.35GMT). The Fed's Barkin (14.20GMT), Kashkari (15GMT), Williams (16GMT) and Goolsbee (17GMT) are also on tap.

Wider market Sentiment

• USD Index at 109.26
• UST 2yr/10yr at 4.354%/4.764%
• Bund 2yr/10yr at 2.285%/2.624%
• Brent at $80.24/brl

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