CEEMEA OPEN: Market volatility and key central bank decisions keep a lid on CEEMEA issuance

Cash USTs holding onto most of the modest cheapening seen in Asia-Pac, reversing some of the aggressive richening seen on Monday after investors panicked that China's DeepSeek emergence would cut demand for AI hardware.

The 10-year yield now sits at 4.5505% ahead of the European session, 6bp firmer on yesterday's just under 1mth low. Trump has said that the AI-breakthrough should be a "wake-up call" for US tech firms. The reverberations will continue to be felt.

Scott Bessent was confirmed as US Treasury Secretary. Reports via FT suggest Bessent plans to impose universal 2.5% tariffs on US imports, increasing monthly to a potential 20%, though Trump has hinted at even higher rates, leaving the final policy uncertain.

EGB debt futures are softer overnight, Mar25 Bunds/OATs are both down 10-15 ticks.

US equity futures are mixed. SPX minis down a touch. Meanwhile, Nasdaq minis have ticked slightly higher after the cash dropped just over 3% Monday. European equity futures are higher. Asia cash equity markets are mixed. Hang Seng registers a modest gain of 0.14%. Nikkei down again.

Brent is firmer, rising nearly 50c during Asia-Pac and gaining $1 from yesterday's 2.5wk nadir of $76.30/brl.

Fresh in the CEEMEA Pipeline

On the Radar

An empty CEEMEA pipeline to kick the week off, following USD6bn and EUR4bn in issuance last week. We can expect limited deal flow in the run-up to several central bank decisions this week, including from the FOMC tomorrow (January 29), where policymakers are expected to stand pat. The Spring Festival/Lunar New Year in China could also postpone any new issuance announcements. Additionally, a global sell off in equity markets after Chinese AI startup DeepSeek showcased its powerful model despite US sanctions, raising questions about the US' technological advance, will likely also temper demand.

Priced Deals

What to watch on Tuesday

In CEEMEA, the NBH will take centre focus (13GMT). Policymakers are expected to leave borrowing costs unchanged at 6.50%.

In the US, preliminary December durable good orders are due (13.30GMT). The headline is expected partially reverse November's 1.25 m/m drop with a + 0.5% m/m outturn. Core shipments, the important part for GDP (out Thursday) is seen expanding 0.2%. This might be slower than November's 0.3% m/m, but previously assuming no revisions, will cap off a decent quarter after October's +0.4% m/m. The FHF house price index (14GMT) is expected to come in unchanged at 0.4% m/m. The Dallas Fed services activity will follow (14.30GMT). Finally, Conf. board consumer confidence/present situations/expectations and the Richmond Fed manuf/business confidence indicators (15MGMT). Consumer confidence should improve after December's 8 point fall (although that was from a 3-yr high). Keep an eye on the labour differential which has improved sharply over the last three outings.

Central bank speakers to talk today include only the ECB's Villeroy (9.30GMT) and Cipollone (14.30GMT).

Wider market Sentiment

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