CEEMEA OPEN: No live deals on Liberation Day

Cash USTs have cheapened around 2-3bp across the board overnight. The 10-year yield fell to 4.1309% at worst yesterday, where as today it has steadied around 4.1937%. That is 3bp under the 200-day MA.

Focus is on Trump's upcoming tariff announcement (21GMT). Tariffs on automobiles are due to come in Thursday. Tariffs are expected to take immediate effect after their announcement. After talking up 20% across the board, reports indicate another less onerous option is being drawn up for a subset of countries.

EGB debt futures are in the red on Wednesday morning. Jun25 OATs underperform after falling to a higher-low of 123.10 (-18 ticks). Bunds have steadied around the higher-low of 129.11 (-16 ticks). The 10yr Bund yield ended at 2.6870%, three successive closes under 2.75%, but that level remains something of a magnet.

US equity futures are in the red, with SPX minis leading the way lower (-0.13%). European equity futures are also lower. Asia cash equities are in the green. Hang Seng is choppy.

Fed Goolsbee warned that tariffs could hurt consumer spending and business investment, citing plummeting confidence and sentiment. While tariffs may cause temporary price increases, they risk long-term effects like retaliatory measures and higher costs for intermediate goods Fed Barkin warned that tariffs could reduce consumption as consumers resist higher prices. He noted the inflationary impact of tariffs and cautioned that if corporate margins shrink, businesses may respond by cutting jobs.

Also in the headlines, Liberal judge Susan Crawford won a record-breaking Wisconsin Supreme Court race against conservative Brad Schimel, preserving the court’s 4-3 liberal majority in a contest seen as an early referendum on the Trump administration.

Brent briefly dipped to a lower-low of $74.34/brl during Asia-Pac before trading flat along $74.48. Gold has moved lower, now roughly $34 under yesterday's record high of $3149).

Fresh in the CEEMEA Pipeline

On the Radar

Issuance in the CEEMEA pipeline has been slow in the first half of the week as volatility and risk-off sentiment gripped markets ahead of looming US tariff implantation tonight.

Gold Fields Limited, a globally diversified gold producer with nine operating mines in Australia, South Africa, Ghana, Chile and Peru and one project in Canada, rated Baa3 (Stable) by Moody’s and BBB- (Stable) by S&P, commenced a series of fixed income investor calls on Monday (March 31) to advertise its USD-denominated Reg S 10yr senior unsecured offering.
- The issuer has mandated Citigroup, RBC Capital Markets and Scotia Capital (USA) as Joint Global Coordinators and Active Bookrunners.
- A link to the roadshow can be found here.
- GFL was last in the markets in May 2019, where it landed a USD500mn (each) 5yr and 10yr dual-tranche at 5.125% and 6.125%, respectively.

The Republic of Slovenia has asked Barclays and BNP Paribas to organize a series of fixed income investor meetings commencing today (April 2) with a focus on its newly established Sustainability-Linked Bond Framework. The Framework has been developed in accordance with the ICMA Sustainability-Linked Bond Principles and has received a Second Party Opinion from S&P Global Ratings. The Sustainability-Linked Bond Framework is available here.
- BNP Paribas acted as ESG Structuring Agent on the SLB Framework establishment and will be coordinating logistics.

Priced Deals

What to watch on Wednesday

In CEEMEA, the spotlight will be on the NBP rate decision this afternoon, where policymakers are expected to leave the base rate unchanged at 5.75%.

In the US, ADP employment change is seen rising 43k to 120k in March. Factory orders (15GMT) likely slowed to 0.5% in February from 1.7% in January. (Final) February Durable goods orders is seen unchanged at 0.9%. (Final) February cap goods orders nondef are also out.

Central bank speakers scheduled to speak today include the ECB's Schnabel (11.30GMT), Escriva (13GMT), Holzmann (14GMT) and Lane (15.05GMT). The FED’s Kugler (21.30GMT) is also on tap.

Wider market Sentiment

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