CEEMEA OPEN: Poland & SAIB gets priced

• The DXY finds support at the 106.500 handle while, Fed's Bowman expressed concerns about recalibrating policy without fully achieving inflation goals, noting that progress in lowering inflation appears to have stalled, as inflation and strong demand for affordable housing contributed to persistent price pressures.

• Fed's Cook was more neutral as she highlighted that the U.S. economy is in a strong position, with robust growth, a largely normalized labor market, and signs of continued disinflation.
• Fed’s Collins thinks additional policy easing is needed but it how much is unclear.
• The Fed's Schmid repeated that is is unclear how much further rates will fall & now is the time to 'dial back' restrictiveness of policy.
• Asian equity indices are lower as Nvidia results failed to impress investors despite beating the street in both Q3 EPS & revenue. Nikkei fell to a 3.5wk low while S&P futures & down 0.2% ahead of the EZ open.

Fresh in the CEEMEA Pipeline

• No new additions to pipeline.

On the Radar

• The Republic of Poland, rated A2 (Stable) / A (Stable) (Moody’s / JCR) has now priced its JPY TBD Reg S only multi-trance Senior Unsecured Note (Samurai Bonds) in the following format:
  1. A JPY66.3bn 3yr (Nov-2027) tenor at the final price guidance of YMS+60bp, in from the revised guidance of YMS+56-60bp and in from the YMS+55bp area IPTs.
  2. A JPY9.2bn 5yr (Nov-2029) tenor at the final price guidance of YMS+70bp; in from the revised guidance of YMS+66-70bp and in from the YMS+65bp area IPTs.
  3. A JPY7.1bn 10yr (Nov-2034) tenor at the final price guidance of YMS+90bp; in from the revised guidance of YMS+88-92bp and in from the YMS+90bp area IPTs.
  4. A JPY9.5bn 20yr (Nov-2044) tenor at the final price guidance of YMS+110bp; in from the revised guidance of YMS+108-112bp and in from the YMS+110bp area IPTs.
  5. A JPY5.0bn 30yr (Nov-2054) tenor at the final price guidance of YMS+120bp; in from the revised guidance of YMS+118-122bp and in from the YMS+120bp area IPTs.

• Also, SAIB Tier 1 Sukuk Limited, rated A3 Positive (Moody’s) / A- Stable (Fitch) / BBB Positive (S&P) / A- Positive (Capital Intelligence), has now priced its USD750mn Reg S only Category 2 PNC5.5 Sustainable Additional Tier 1 Sukuk at6.375%, in from the 6.875% area IPTs. Orderbooks came in and peaked at USD4bn, excluding JLM interest.

• Still on the sidelines is CEC Bank S.A., a publicly owned leading bank in Romania, rated BB (stable) by Fitch, has commenced a series of fixed income investor call today (November 19) to advertise a EUR denominated exp. 300m RegS Senior Non-Preferred Bond with a 5NC4 tenor.
  1. CEC Bank has mandated Erste Group and ING as Joint Lead Managers and BT Capital Partners as Co-Manager.
  2. The notes are expected to be rated BB by Fitch.
  3. The direct link to the deal roadshow can be found here.
  4. Comps have circulated the following leads:

Priced Deals

What to watch on Thursday

• In CEEMEA, we are forecasting another SARB 25bps rate cut today, taking the policy rate to 7.75% (preview here).
• The CBRT's policy meeting today (11GMT), where we expect policymakers will hold interest rates steady for an eighth straight meeting at 50%, potentially it’s last decision to do so before commencing a rate-cutting cycle in December (preview here).
  1. Still to come in CEEMEA is Poland's Consumer confidence & construction output (9GMT).
• In the US, initial/continuing jobless claims, Philly Fed Business outlook (13:30GMT), leading index, existing home sales and Kansas City Fed Manuf activity (16GMT).
• Central bankers expected to speak today include the Fed's Hammack, Goolsbee, Schmind and Barr & ECB’s Villeroy, Knot, Holzmann, Cipollone, Escriva, Patstalides, Lane, Elderson, Kazimir and Vujcic.

Wider market Sentiment

• USD Index at 106.648
• UST 2yr/10yr at 4.306%/4.398%
• Bund 2yr/10yr at 2.121%/2.357%
• Brent at $73.41/brl

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