CEEMEA OPEN: Seplat Energy returns to markets for the first time since 2021

• Cash USTs are richer across the board, led by the short-end. The 2-year yield is down 2/3bp to 3.9241% versus yesterday's best of 3.9494%. The 10-year yield is down 1-2bp to 4.2645% and 3bp above the 200-day MA. This, ahead of the highlight this week, which comes in the form of US CPI (12.30GMT).

• The US' House narrowly passed a six-month funding bill to prevent a Friday government shutdown, marking a victory for Trump. The bill now moves to the Senate, needing at least eight Democratic votes to bypass a filibuster. Also in the headlines, a 25% tariff on steel and aluminium from Canada and other partners has taken effect. Trump reversed a plan to double Canada's levy to 50% after Ontario dropped its proposed 25% electricity surcharge. He later hinted at broader tariff increases.

• Ukraine agreed in principle to a US-proposed 30-day ceasefire with Russia. In return, the US pledged to resume weapons and intelligence support. Russia has yet to respond. "The ball is now in their court," said Secretary of State Rubio.

• EGB debt futures are lower. Jun25 Bunds slipped as low as 126.69 (-38 ticks) at worst overnight before paring some of those losses during Asia-Pac trade and currently trades a touch below the early session high of 126.93 (-14 ticks). OATs fell as low as 120.97 (-21 ticks) before steadying around the 121.00 handle ahead of the Frankfurt open.

• US equity future markets point north, with SPX minis and Nasdaq minis up over 0.30%. European equity futures start on the firmer foot. Dax has jumped over 1%. FTSE +0.48%. Asia cash equities are mixed. Shanghai choppy.

• Brent pared overnight gains, to a higher-low of $69.79/brl in the latest passage of play on hopes for a ceasefire-deal between Russia and Ukraine.

• Gold is up to an intraday high of 2921.

Fresh in the CEEMEA Pipeline

On the Radar

• We can expect a temporary freeze in issuance updates ahead of the US CPI release later this afternoon (13.30GMT). Before then, three deals have priced and a new entrée to the pipeline. Seplat Energy Plc, a leading indigenous African independent upstream oil and gas company operating in Nigeria, rated B (Stable) by S&P and B- (Positive) by Fitch, commenced a GIC, along with a series of fixed income investor calls, on Tuesday (March 11). This, to advertise a potential USD bmk 5NC2 Reg S senior note offering.
  1. Seplat has also announced a concurrent any-and-all tender offer (the “Tender Offer”) on its outstanding USD650m 7.750% Notes due April 2026 (the “2026 Notes”).
  2. The issuer has mandated Citi, J.P. Morgan, Rand Merchant Bank, Standard Bank and Standard Chartered Bank as Joint Global Coordinators and Joint Bookrunners and FCMB Capital Markets, MCB Securities Ltd, Nedbank, United Bank for Africa and Zenith Bank Plc as Co-Managers. J.P. Morgan is coordinating logistics.
  3. Seplat was last in the markets in March 2021, where it landed USD650mn Senior Unsecured notes at 7.75%, in from the 8% area IPTs.

• Also on the sidelines, The Arab Bank for Economic Development in Africa -a development financial institution owned by 18 member countries of the League of Arab States (LAS), rated Aa1 (stable) by Moody’s, AA (positive) by S&P and AAA (stable) by JCR, commenced fixed income investor meetings on Monday (March 10). This, to advertise a EUR 3yr Reg S only Senior Unsecured bond.
  1. BADEA has mandated the African Export-Import Bank, Citi, Deutsche Bank AG and J.P. Morgan as Joint Global Coordinators along with Emirates NBD Capital, Societe Generale and Standard Chartered Bank as Joint Bookrunners and Joint Lead Managers.
  2. The net roadshow can be found here.

• Aldar Investment Properties LLC, the largest real estate management company in Abu Dhabi in terms of assets under management and a majority-owned subsidiary of Aldar Properties PJSC, rated Baa1 by Moody’s (stable), has now priced its USD500mn (WNG) 10yr (Mar-2035) Reg S Green Senior Unsecured Sukuk at T+110bp, in from the T+140bps area IPTs. Final demand topped USD3.4bn, excluding JLM interest.

• IsDB Trust Services No.2 SARL, rated Aaa/AAA/AAA by Moody’s/S&P/Fitch all stable outlook, has landed a USD1.75bn 5yr (March-2030) senior unsecured Reg S Sukuk at SOFR m/s+45bps, in from a revised guidance of SOFR m/s+ 55bps area and SOFR m/s +56bps area IPTs. Final books topped USD2bn, including USD200mn in JLM interest.

• In addition, Bank Gospodarstwa Krajowego, rated A2 (Stable) by Moody's / A- (Stable) by Fitch, has gone live with a EUR two-part Reg S only Cat 1, Registered form Senior Unsecured bond in the following format:
  1. EUR1.25bn 5yr (Mar-2030) at m/s+85bps in from the m/s+95bps area guidance and m/s+120bps area IPTs. Final books topped EUR2.5bn, including EUR100mn in JLM interest.
  2. EUR1bn 12yr (Mar-2037) at m/s+165bps, in from the m/s+175bps area guidance and m/s+195bps area IPTs.

Priced Deals

What to watch on Wednesday

• In CEEMEA, Czech industrial/construction output is out (8GMT). The NBP is expected to leave rates unchanged at 5.75%. Russian CPI 916MGT) is seen accelerating to 10% y/y from 9.92%.

• In the US, both the headline and core CPI print (12.30GMT) are forecast to slow 10bp y/y to 2.9%/3.2% in February, respectively. The monthly outturns are both seen at 0.3% or 3.6% annualised. Too high for the Fed’s liking. In December, the super-core did slow to a 2024 low 4% y/y, but this in the context of 0.76% m/m. Real average hourly earnings are also out as well as the February budget data (18GMT), where the deficit is seen widening to -$308bn from $128.6bn prior.

• Central bank speakers scheduled to speak today include only the ECB's Simkus (8GMT), Lagarde (8.45GMT), Villeroy (9.15GMT), Escriva (12GMT), Centeno (12.45GMT), Nagel (13.45GMT), Lane (15.15GMT) and Panetta (16.30GMT).

Wider market Sentiment

• USD Index at 103.65
• UST 2yr/10yr at 3.914%/4.253%
• Bund 2yr/10yr at 2.191%/2.888%
• Brent at $69.69/brl

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