CORP SNAPSHOT: Will anyone take the plunge this week?

Given the headline distractions in the form of Tuesday’s US Presidential election, an FOMC verdict on Thursday and another slew of corporate earnings as 101 Stoxx600 and 102 S&P500 members report across the week, expectations of any meaningful euro IG corporate supply were limited for this week.

Monday looked like the only real issuance window to launch a new deal ahead of the aforementioned looming events, but so far nothing is out.

Guesses in our weekly issuance poll for this week ranged from a low of zero to a high of EUR4bn, but given that no issuer is live today the former looks like a safer bet at this stage.

That said we could see some issuance attempts on Thursday if there is a clear US Presidential winner by Wednesday, but whether that happens and/or the result is accepted by all looks quite unlikely.

Instead, most of the bankers we spoke to are targeting next week for their near-term projects, meaning it could be a very busy w/c 11-Nov as issuers look to make the most of what is a shrinking 2024 issuance window.

Monday’s blank comes after IG corporates (those that weren’t in earnings blackouts) were able to comfortably access the primary market and secure some economic funding last week despite a cocktail of factors which weighed on broader market sentiment.

The headline last week, of course, was the well-flagged jumbo M&A-driven multi-tranche transaction from Danish transport and logistics company DSV A/S which in the end totalled EUR5bn and marked the joint-largest euro corporate trade of 2024.

DSV provided the backbone of a EUR10bn single currency IG corporate week, which not only meant we beat the average EUR8bn estimate but also equalled the highest guess.

In turn we also saw the sector’s largest weekly total since the final full week of Sep when EUR14bn (23 tranches) crossed the tape.

Last week’s activity put the final single currency IG corporate total for October at EUR22.5bn, and significantly more than the paltry EUR7.25bn to have priced in the corresponding month last year as rising Middle East tensions hampered issuance plans.

Looking at November, and it traditionally marks a busier month for issuance than October, as more corporates come out of earnings enforced blackout periods and make funding plays ahead of the traditional December slowdown.

Over the past five years, euro IG corporate supply has averaged a shade under EUR32bn in November, although given this week has the potential to be a complete washout we could fail to hit those heights this year.

That also comes with issuers having front-loaded heavily this year ahead of the election and other known unknowns, with the year-to-date single currency corporate (ex-HY) total currently at EUR329.8bn.

To put that size into context, we have already seen more supply this year than in the whole of 2023 (EUR289.42bn) and 2022 (EUR247.345bn), with only 2021 (EUR329.988bn), 2019 (EUR381.562bn) and 2020 (EUR443.515bn) having seen more than this year.

Summary of last week's EUR IG corporate trades:

In the pipeline:

** UK utility Northern Gas Networks Limited (Baa1/BBB+) mandated Barclays and RBC Capital Markets as Joint Bookrunners to arrange a series of fixed income investor calls on Monday 4-Nov. Northern Gas Networks Finance plc currently has a GB450m 6.125% 2033 Note outstanding, which is unconditionally and irrevocably guaranteed by Northern Gas Networks Limited. GBP150m of these bonds are currently retained by the issuer and a sale of these retained bonds is expected to follow, subject to market conditions

Performance tracker of recent EUR IG/split-rated benchmark deals

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