CREDIT BULLETS: All focus across the pond
- European stocks in a holding pattern and are awaiting fresh impetus from the US elections where Americans start voting on Tuesday. Latest polls suggested that the result is too close to call, meaning we may not know the outcome for days or even weeks, whilst bookies (Betfair Exchange) currently have a Trump win as a 61% probability. Chinese stocks led regional gains overnight after the Caixin services index improved by more than expected in Oct to 52.0 (exp 50.5, prev 50.3), representing the 22nd straight month of expansion
- Stoxx600 advances as much as 0.31% before falling back. Utilities outperform
- Govvies: The path of least resistance for yields is higher across the board on Tuesday morning with the longer end underperforming
- Primary: The only activity of any sort comes thanks to Northern Gas which is conducting a GBP150m of 6.125% Jun 2033 retained bond sale
- Performance checker of Mon’s EUR benchmark deals (bp spread change from reoffer) –
- Covered: BPCECB 2.75% 02/30 unch
- Ahead: The US heads to the polls. Little data to move the needle, whilst 18 S&P500 companies release results, and the latest US refunding cycle continues with a USD42bn 10yr Notes sale. S&P futures +0.2% and Nasdaq futures +0.3%
Live deals/updates
Issuer | Deal Type | CCY | Amount (mn) | Maturity | Initial Price Talk | Final Pricing | IPT to Pxd | Book Size (mn) |
Retained | GBP | TBD | 02/06/2033 | UKT+140a | ` | - | Awaiting Update |
Key Data
- CH Oct Caixin Services PMI beat at 52.0 (f/c 50.5, prev 50.3)
- FR Sep Industrial Production lower than exp at -0.9% MoM (f/c -0.6%, prev rev to 1.1% from 1.4%), Manufacturing number higher then exp at -0.8% (f/c -1.3%, prev rev to 1.4% from 1.6%)
- SP Oct Unemployment Change lower than exp at 26.8k (f/c 27.0k, prev 3.2k)
- UK Oct F S&P Global Composite/Services PMIs revised up to 51.8/52.0 (51.7/51.8 flash)
Auctions
- UK sold GBP3.75bn 2034 Gilts at 4.475%; b/c 2.81x
- AT sold EUR1.725bn 2034 & 2044 RAGBs at 2.686%/3.112%; b/c 2.2x/2.14x
Ahead
- US Sep Trade Balance (13:30)
- US Oct ISM Services Index (15:00)
- US to sell USD42bn 10yr Notes (18:00)
- ECB’s Schnabel (18:30)
- 18 S&P500 companies report
All times GMT
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