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CREDIT BULLETS: Blank end to slowest primary week since mid-Aug

  • European stocks trade mixed following a negative US/Asia handover and as market participants continue to absorb Thursday’s ECB verdict. Morning focus was on UK data where Oct GDP came in at -0.1% MoM, 20bp lower than consensus and the same as in September, whilst Industrial and Manufacturing Production also missed estimates. Over in Asia, Chinese stocks led a weaker session after the conclusion of economic policy meetings in Beijing following which markets have been amping up rate cut bets while displaying some apparent disappointment to the various pledges made. US futures are currently higher after S&P500 (-0.54%) and Nasdaq (-0.66%) both retreated Thursday as jobless claims jumped and PPI came in hotter than expected
  • Stoxx600 falls as much as 0.24% but back around unchanged at time of writing. Real Estate & Health Care stocks the weakest links whilst Financials outperform
  • Govvies: EGB yields nudge higher as the morning progresses although moves limited at this stage. Comes after yesterday's substantial rise in 10yr yields in Germany (+7.8bps) and France (+9.8bps) but even bigger increases in southern Europe where Italian yields surged by 15.9bps
  • Primary: A predictable Friday blank is leaving the weekly euro total at a paltry EUR1.27bn and the lowest since the w/e 16-Aug
  • COVERED VIEWPOINT: Year in Review and Outlook for 2025
  • Ahead: Quiet afternoon session limited to US Nov Import Price Index, Fed speakers in blackout ahead of next week’s FOMC verdict. S&P futures +0.4% and Nasdaq futures +0.7%

Fresh in the pipeline/live deals

  • No movement in the European primary market on Friday 13th Dec

Key Data

  • UK Dec GfK Consumer Confidence higher than exp at -17 (f/c & prev -18)
  • UK Oct Industrial/Manufacturing Production both missed at -0.6%/-0.6% MoM (f/c 0.3%/0.2%, prev -0.5%/-1.0%)
  • UK Oct Monthly GDP missed at -0.1% MoM (f/c 0.1%, prev -0.1%)
  • UK Oct Trade Balance - deficit above f/c at -3718m (f/c -3500m, prev -3462m)
  • GE Oct Imports/Exports mixed versus expectations at -0.1%/-2.8% (f/c -1.0%/-2.6%, prev 2.0%/-1.8%)
  • FR Nov F CPI confirmed at 1.3% YoY
  • SP Nov F CPI confirmed at 2.4% YoY
  • EC Oct Industrial Production as exp at 0.0% MoM (prev rev to -1.5%)

Auctions

  • BE sold EUR500m of 2034 & 2037s via ORI Auction

Ahead

  • US Nov Import Price Index (13:30)


All times GMT


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