CREDIT BULLETS: Primary pace remains measured as stocks fall

European stocks are under pressure on Thursday whilst US futures are also lower, with the apparent relief to the Fed’s latest musings waring thin already. As a reminder that saw Wall Street bourses gain on Wednesday, with the Fed’s median forecast still predicted two cuts this year. Chair Powell also expressed the view that the Fed was in a strong position to respond to shocks and acknowledged that the base case was that inflationary impacts of tariffs were transitory, but investors are appearing to be a bit more sceptical this morning. European stocks took the lead from Asia instead where we saw the Hang Seng shed an eye-catching 2.23% on the day. Central bank focus moved from the FOMC to the Riksbank (expected hold) and SNB (expected 25bps cut) this morning, followed by the BoE later which is likely to hold – see Viewpoint: BoE's Cautious, Gradual, Careful To Continue. Ahead of that, the UK labour market report suggested a steady jobs situation, despite weakening consumer confidence and the well-trod upcoming cost pressures, with both Average Weekly Earnings and ILO Unemployment Rate coming in as expected (more here)
Stoxx600 sheds as much as 0.99%, with losses led by Industrials and Financials
Govvies: EGB yields followed USTs lower, although bigger moves seen in Gilts with 10yr UKT dropping as much as 6.8bps. Spain and France sold EUR20bn of intermediate and long-duration conventional paper without any problems (details below)
Primary: Financial issuers continue to do the heavy lifting on Thursday with covered, senior unsecured and T2 paper all on the docket. The SSA sector is also seeing a couple of deals from regional German issuers, whilst IG corporates remain conspicuous by their absence
Performance checker of Wed's EUR benchmark deals (bp change from reoffer) –
- SSA: HAMBRG 2.75% 03/30 -1
- FIG: LLOYDS (Snr) 3.25% 03/30 unch, ERTSBK (SP) 3.25% 6.25NC5.25 -1, BARC (T2) 4.616% 12NC7 -3
Ahead: BoE is expected to keep its benchmark rate at 4.5%. US existing home sales and the usual jobless claims release headlines data. S&P futures -0.5% & Nasdaq futures -0.7%

Live deals

Issuer	Deal Type	CCY	Amount (mn)	Maturity	Initial Price Talk	Latest Px Talk	Final Pricing	Book Size (mn)
Allianz SE	T2	EUR	TBD	30.33NC10.33	m/s+200a	-	-	2,000
Banque Cantonale de Geneve	Senior unsecured	EUR	500	27/03/2030	m/s+130a	-	m/s+95	2,000
City of Dortmund	Stadtanleihe	EUR	150	31/03/2032	m/s+70a	-	m/s+65	410
DNB Boligkreditt AS	Covered	EUR	1,500	27/09/2029	m/s+36a	-	m/s+30	3,900
Freie Hansestadt Bremen	LSA	EUR	500	25/03/2027	m/s+10a	-	m/s+10	550
Swiss Re Subordinated Finance plc	T2	EUR	TBD	8NC7	m/s+160a	-	-	1,500

Fresh in the pipeline

Issuer	CCY	Notes
Kingdom of Morocco	EUR	Calls 24-Mar; 4/10yr two-part bmk

Key Data

GE Feb PPI lower than exp at -0.2%/0.7% MoM/YoY (f/c 0.2%/1.0%, prev -0.1%/0.5%)
UK Jan ILO Unemployment Rate unch as f/c at 4.4%
UK Jan Average Weekly Earnings matched f/c at 5.8% (prev rev to 6.1% from 6.0%)
EC Jan Construction Output rose to 0.2%/0.0% MoM/YoY (prev rev to 0.4%/0.8%)

Auctions

SP sold max EUR6.5bn 2030, 2035 & 2043 Bonds at 2.757%, 3.382% & 3.9% resp, b/cs at 1.99x, 1.54x & 1.76x
FR sold max EUR13.5bn 2028, 2030, 2032 & 2033 OATs at 2.59%, 2.8%, 3.1% & 3.23% resp, b/c 3.49x, 3.36x, 3.58x & 3.17x. Also sold EUR1.764bn 2034, 2036, 2040 & 2053 Linkers

Ahead

BoE Rate Decision (12:00)
ECB’s Lane (12:00) and Villeroy (13:00 & 15:15) speak
US Weekly Continuing/Initial Jobless Claims (12:30)
US Mar Philly Feb Business Outlook (12:30)
US Feb Existing Homes Sales (14:00)
US Feb Leading Index (14:00)
US to sell USD18bn 10yr TIPS (17:00)
8 S&P500 companies report

All times GMT