CREDIT OPEN: Bursting pipeline points to huge day for primary
EU stocks look set for modest opening gains on Tuesday having pared early losses during Monday's session to leave major indices either flat or slightly higher on the day.
US players return today to face the first in a set of key releases due this week that will help settle the debate as to whether the Fed’s first rate cut in over four years is a 25bp or 50bp affair. The most money is currently on the former but that could change in coming days as markets absorb key incoming data (ISM Mfg today, JOLTS on Wednesday, ADP Employment and Jobless Claims Thursday and then NFPs on Friday).
Ahead of all that, and adding to the sense that markets are in wait and see mood, Asian stocks have been lacking a clear direction today while US index futures are in the red after S&P500 and Nasdaq cash indices enjoyed a late rally Friday to end 1.01% & 1.13% higher ahead of the holiday weekend.
Prior to today’s US data, this morning’s economic releases are strictly second tier and hence will be of little concern to those lining up what looks set to be a hefty list of primary sales this morning if the bursting pipeline is any guide.
Released overnight, UK Aug BRC Sales rose to 0.8% YoY from 0.3%.
Auction supply is back on the menu and comes from Austria and Germany, ahead of which yields nudged higher on Monday.
Scheduled central bank speakers are BoE's Breeden & ECB's Nagel.
For more on latest developments see the European Breakfast Briefing.
Tuesday’s supply prospects
There is little room to move in the pipeline ahead of Tuesday’s session with borrowers across all sectors lining up a mixture of euro and sterling deals following recent roadshows/mandates. Given the flood of issuance that is expected today (with more already lining up Wednesday) and that we already saw EUR9.75bn of euro paper price on Monday, the EUR38.5bn average combined forecast given in our latest weekly issuance estimates report almost looks a shoe-in already, whilst the highest combined guess of EUR55.5bn is a distinct possibility.
** Kommuninvest EUR 4yr
** KommuneKredit EUR long 7yr
** DBJ EUR 4yr sustainability
** UK GBP Jan 20240 syndicated gilt
** Loomis inaugural EUR300m (exp) 5yr SLB
** Mercialys EUR300m no grow 7yr
** Castellum EUR500m no grow long 6yr
** Experian EUR 10yr
** SNAM EUR PNC5.25 hybrid debut
** Dwr Cymru debut GBP 20yr Class B secured sustainability
** Macquarie Bank EUR short-to-intermediate green snr
** Luminor Bank EUR300m no grow 4NC3 snr pref
** Alpha Services and Holdings EUR300m (exp) PNC6 AT1
** Norddeutsche Landesbank - Girozentrale EUR500m no grow 5yr SNP
** MONETA Money Bank EUR300m 6NC5 snr pref
** Banco de Sabadell inaugural GBP benchmark long 5yr
** Lloyds Bank GmbH debut EUR500m no grow 5yr covered
** Banco di Desio e della Brianza EUR500m 5yr covered
** B2 Impact EUR200m 4yr FRN
US players return from the long weekend with respondents to our weekly issuance poll looking for an average USD52bn to come to market this week, with the least optimistic calling for USD40bn, while the most bullish of the group seems to think we could see as much as USD68bn. For more details, see the IG WEEKLY WRAP UP.
What to watch today
** Key Data: SP Aug Unemployment Change (08:00), US Aug F S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (14:45), US Jul Construction Spending (15:00) and US Aug ISM Manufacturing (15:00)
** Key Events: BoE’s Breeden (13:45) and ECB’s Nagel (17:45) speak
** Auctions: AT to sell EUR1.4375bn of 2034 & 2086 RAGBs (10:00) and GE to sell EUR4.5bn 2026 (10:30) Schatz (10:30)
** Earnings: 3 Stoxx600 companies release results
All times BST
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