CREDIT OPEN: Data dump before US Thanksgiving holiday

Stock futures currently point to a weaker opening for European markets, coming on the back of modest gains for major US indices but then a weak overnight session for the Japanese Nikkei (-0.8%). Chinese stocks were more buoyant with CSI300 rising over 1.5% despite figures suggesting Chinese industrial profits fell for a third consecutive YoY decline.

Israel reached a 60-day ceasefire with Hezbollah after weeks of mediation by the US, with Biden saying that the agreement would eventually end the devastating conflict between Israel and Hezbollah.

To recap matters from Tuesday, the minutes of the Nov FOMC monetary policy meeting showed that policymakers assessed upside risks to inflation as 'little changed'. Nonetheless, 'almost all' participants agreed that risks to the Fed’s objectives were roughly balanced, supporting a gradual shift toward a more neutral policy stance.

OIS markets are currently pricing in ca. 16bps of rate cuts for the December FOMC meeting, pointing to odds of around 64% for a 25bps rate cut in what will be the final meeting of 2024. That is higher than the 10bps implied cut seen early last week.

The session ahead will be headlined by a swathe of economic data from the US. The headline PCE Index is widely projected to have risen 2.3% YoY in Oct, increasing in pace. Strong spending and income growth continue to support price levels, although real spending is likely to ease a tad. The second print of the Q3 US GDP will be out as well, although the consensus sees no change from its earlier estimates. That all comes on the back of European data in the shape of French and German consumer confidence numbers.

Meanwhile, the pace of central bank-speak dips and will be headed by ECB Governing Council member Lane.

The US will follow up on what appeared to be a successful placement of USD28bn 2yr FRNs and USD70bn 5yr notes with an auction of 7yr notes (for a total of USD44bn).

For more on latest developments see the European Breakfast Briefing.

Wednesday's supply prospects

The sparse public pipeline is currently headlined by HY corporate names, where two issuers could potentially print a mixture of euro and sterling paper following recent roadshows. The only other name present is majority state-owned Finnish national electricity transmission grid operator Fingrid Oyj (A+/A+) which is expected to bring just its second ever euro green bond in the form of a EUR500m no grow 5yr after calls yesterday. That after a weak backdrop Tuesday helped to keep a lid on single currency bond activity, with just two SSA issuers printing along with a singular IG corp and HY name, for a combined EUR2.45bn (after EUR2bn on Monday) – with a full recap here.

** Fingrid EUR500m no grow 5yr green

** Arrow Global EUR450m NC1 FRN (E+550), EUR250m NC2 FXD (7.75% area) and GBP250m NC2 (9.75% area) three-part

** Azerion Group EUR300m max tap of the 10.029% Oct 2026 SSN

Tuesday was the 22nd blank ex-SSA issuance day of the year in the US (there were 32 in 2023). However, the USD13.7bn launched on Monday had already been more than enough to surpass the (Thanksgiving week) weekly estimate of USD7bn. At that figure it also marked the 36th week this year that the Street has underestimated the resolve of issuers to tap the US public debt market. In doing so it also brought ex-SSA issuance for November to USD98.7bn, topping the highest monthly estimate of USD90bn and just shy of the decade-long average November issuance of USD101.1bn. See IGM's THE ENDGAME.

What to watch Wednesday – Lots of US data ahead of Thanksgiving

** Key Data: FR Nov Consumer Confidence (07:45), GE Dec GfK Consumer Confidence (09:30), US Weekly MBA Mortgage Applications (12:00), US Q3 S GDP Annualized (13:30), US Q3 S Personal Consumption (13:30), US Q3 S Core PCE Price Index (13:30), US Oct P Wholesale Inventories (13:30), US Oct P Durable Goods Orders (13:30), US Weekly Initial Continuing Jobless Claims (13:30), US Nov MNI Chicago PMI (14:45), US Oct Personal Income/Spending (15:00) and US Oct Core PCE Prince Index (15:00)

** Key Events: ECB’s Lane speaks (18:00)

** Auctions: US to sell USD44bn 7yr Notes (16:30)

** Earnings: 7 Stoxx600 companies release results

All times GMT

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