CREDIT OPEN: Labour Day holiday to keep us quiet
Eurex and Euronext are closed on Thursday for Labour Day across Europe, but US stock futures are higher to follow some upbeat tech earnings after hours from Microsoft Corp and Meta Platforms Inc.
That after US stocks closed mainly in positive territory on the final trading day of a volatile month, recouping early losses underpinned by data showing the largest contraction in economic growth in three years.
As a reminder US Q1 GDP came in softer than expected at -0.3% (f/c -0.2%; Q4 +2.4%), marking the first negative Q/Q growth reading seen since Q1 2022, with that data release seen lending a modest bid to Treasuries.
It was a quiet session overnight in Asia with some stock markets closed, but those which were open managed to record gains.
The BOJ opted to make no change to interest rates in a decision that provided few surprises, although focus would have been centred around the BOJ's outlook.
On that topic, the BOJ now sees the price trend hitting its 2% goal at a later period in the cycle, generally saying that uncertainty around the external environment has risen greatly – more details here.
Given the May Day holiday there is no auction supply or data from European countries, but we do have UK and US data on the docket.
The UK reports Mar Mortgage Approvals and M4 Money supply along with final Apr Manufacturing PMI numbers, whilst the US also sees the latter along with Mar Construction Spending and the usual weekly jobless claims.
The latter is the final curtain raiser ahead of Friday’s non-farm payroll print and comes after Apr ADP employment change announced yesterday was bit of a shocker at just +62k vs 115k consensus. Pay growth was up 20bps to 6.9% though.
For more on latest developments see the European Breakfast Briefing.
Thursday’s expected supply
The IG single currency market is expected to draw a blank on Thursday given the holiday on much of the content. That after issuers front-loaded in the first half of the week with EUR47.975bn of IG paper pricing Monday to Wednesday, which is more than even the highest estimate of EUR37.5bn given in our supply poll. If you include HY deals, the overall haul rises to EUR51.195bn, which is the fifth biggest weekly total of 2025 so far. This week’s total has been led by IG corporate names which have printed a combined 25 tranches worth EUR21.325bn, spearheaded by chunky multi-tranche deals from US borrowers Alphabet, Fiserv and Visa.
While the slew of economic data, not to mention uncertain investor sentiment, was expected to keep most US high-grade borrowers on the sidelines, three borrowers elected to forge ahead. They added USD4.85bn to this week’s tally, which now stands at USD28.375bn, just shy of the average weekly estimate of USD32bn. For more colour, see THE ENDGAME.
What to watch Thursday – Labour Day Holiday
** Key Data: UK Mar Mortgage Approvals (09:30), UK Mar M4 Money Supply (09:30), UK Apr F S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (09:30), US Weekly Initial/Continuing Jobless Claims (13:30), US Apr F S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (14:45), US Apr ISM Manufacturing/Prices Paid (15:00) and US Mar Construction Spending (15:00)
** Key Events: No key events or speakers scheduled for Thursday 1st May
** Auctions: No major term auctions scheduled for Thursday 1st May
** Earnings: 3 Stoxx600 & 62 S&P500 companies report
All times BST
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