CREDIT OPEN: Primary bond market to remain active as Fed draws closer
EU stocks look set for a positive open although scope for a decisive or material move today look limited given the obvious event risk which is looming large in the form of tomorrow’s Fed verdict.
As that event draws nearer, Wall Street stocks continue to churn at or near record highs with the Dow (+0.55%) setting a fresh record on Monday although Nasdaq (-0.52%) closed in the red as tech stocks faltered, while S&P500 (+0.13%) did enough to register a sixth straight rise. Index futures are currently narrowly mixed.
Looking at the rates complex and the US 2yr yield is currently hovering just above the 2yr low at 3.524% hit on Monday as markets get set for the first rate cut from the Fed in over four years, the only debate about which is the size with markets currently tilted toward a bolder 50bps move (67% probability according to CME data).
Otherwise overnight, Nikkei was weighed down by a stronger JPY although the currency is well off highs seen on Monday while Japanese players were off. Elsewhere, Hang Seng is building on yesterday’s gains as stimulus bets remain in play although mainland China stocks remain shuttered for the mid-autumn festival.
On today’s data docket, Germany’s ZEW Expectations index (Sep) is seen softening to its weakest level since Jan at 17.0 (prev 19.2), US advance retail sales (Aug) are expected to fall by 0.2% MoM (prev 1.0%) while US industrial production (Aug) is expected to rise 0.2% MoM (prev -0.6%).
Auction supply comes from UK (GBP2.25bn 2054 Gilts), Finland (up to EUR1.5bn 2029 & 2034 bonds) and US (USD13bn 20yr USTs).
For more on latest developments see the European Breakfast Briefing.
Tuesday’s supply prospects
The pace of European bond issuance is set to remain brisk on Tuesday as another batch of issuers eye the pre-FOMC window. Corp, FIG and SSA issuers are already sat in the pipeline after recent mandates, whilst more opportunistic supply is likely. That after eight issuers printed ten tranches worth EUR7.6bn in euros on Monday to kick off a week that is expected to yield on average EUR24bn. Complimenting that were a pair of sterling trades from EIB and Land Securities worth GBP1.1bn (see the IGM DAILY CLOSE for a full recap).
** Latvia EUR Jan 2032s
** BayernLabo EUR500m n/g 10yr
** Gemeinsame NRW Kommunen EUR 9yr sub-benchmark bond (Staedteanleihe No. 8)
** Munich EUR250m debut green
** SEGRO plc EUR 8yr
** Amvest Residential Core Fund inaugural EUR300m (exp) 5.5yr green
** Carmila EUR300m n/g long 7yr green debut
** Great Portland Estates inaugural GBP benchmark 7yr senior unsecured sustainable
** Bank Polska Kasa Opieki EUR 6NC5 SNP
** Eurobank inaugural green EUR 6NC5 senior preferred
Much as expected, a half dozen high grade borrowers rushed to the US market Monday ahead of Wednesday’s FOMC rate decision meeting, with at least a similar amount expected to follow suit today. Combined, the six added USD8.1bn to the USD118.8bn already priced this month, bringing ex-SSA issuance to USD126.95bn, topping the lowest monthly estimate of USD125bn. For more colour see THE ENDGAME.
What to watch today – US retail sales
** Key Data: GE Sep ZEW Survey (10:00), US Aug Retail Sales (13:30), US Aug Industrial Production (14:15), US Jul Business Inventories (15:00) and US Sep NAHB Housing Market Index (15:00)
** Key Events: Fed’s Logan speaks (15:00)
** Auctions: UK to sell GBP2.25bn 2054 Gilts (10:00), FI to sell max EUR1.5bn 2029 & 2034 Bonds (11:00) and US to sell USD13bn 20yr Bonds (18:00)
All times BST
---- Subscribe to read more ----
To receive this analysis plus much more, subscribe to IGM. Request your free trial of the service today.