CREDIT OPEN: Primary prospects looking limited at end of slower week
EU stocks look set for a narrowly mixed start where battered bulls will be hoping for some relief following yet another setback where a late stumble into Thursday's close made for four straight losses. Set against a backdrop of geopolitical and trade worries, Wall Street stocks also closed lower in a week where rotation has been a big theme with big tech the biggest loser versus wins for energy and financials.
Keeping some of the current jumble of concerns in mind, while accepting the Republican nomination at the party convention, presidential candidate Trump pledged to lower taxes, renew trade wars and reduce the debt burden.
Looking at the day in prospect and the day's notable data releases have already hit the tape.
UK retail sales fell by 1.2% on a monthly basis in June, double the 0.6% fall expected, to follow the 2.9% gain in May. UK public borrowing was higher than expected in June with the PSNB ex-banking groups figure at 14.5bn vs the 11.2bn forecast while annual German June PPI matched the -1.6% forecast. The US data schedule is empty.
Speakers comprise Fed's Williams & Bostic. Overnight, the Fed's Daly noted that price stability is yet to be achieved, despite 'good' incoming data on inflation.
The ECB's SPF is published 9.00 BST where inflation expectations should remain anchored. That comes after there was no material change in rate expectations in response to Thursday's ECB meeting with markets currently ascribing an 81% probability to a September cut, little changed from levels seen prior to Thursday's meeting and presser during which President Lagarde was non-committal on a Sep move.
Rates markets get a break from auction supply to follow Thursday's chunky sales from France and Spain while earnings remain a focus and come from 16 Stoxx600 and 7 S&P500 members.
For more on latest developments see the European Breakfast Briefing
Friday's supply prospects
With just today's session left to go, and a limited pipeline in place, the week currently sits at EUR16.15bn, less than half the previous week's final EUR33.87bn total. That comes after two issuers raised EUR850m on Thursday with details in the usual IGM DAILY EUR NICS & BOOKS
** Bendigo and Adelaide Bank Limited EUR Long 5y covered
** Greenalia S.A EUR220m 5y senior secured green
Stateside, following a USD6.1bn day on Thursday, the week is at USD48.1bn, the eighth busiest ex-SSA issuance week of the year. For more colour see IGM's THE ENDGAME.
What to watch today
** Key Data: No key data is set for release in the remainder of today's session
** Key Events: ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters (09:00). Fed's Williams (15:40) & Bostic (18:00) speak
** Auctions: No major term auctions scheduled for Friday 19th Jul
** Earnings: 16 Stoxx600 & 7 S&P500 companies report. Includes Danske Bank
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