CREDIT OPEN: Primary week not done yet?
EU stocks look set for a mildly constructive start, but background geopolitical worries mean that volatility cannot be ruled out, the prospect of which is helping to propel gold and also oil higher again on Friday.
That said, there's been little in the way of big news overnight to unsettle markets with US index futures currently flat after S&P500 (+0.55%) made it four straight wins in a row on Thursday while Nasdaq (+0.03%) recovered early losses as Nvidia closed a choppy session higher having hit a record peak intraday.
Otherwise, plenty of attention remains on Bitcoin which continues to edge toward the USD100k level (today’s high USD99,368) as markets position for a crypto-friendly incoming US administration.
Turning to the day ahead and UK retail sales for Oct will be the initial highlight before the spotlight turns to flash PMIs across the UK, Eurozone and also the US. Other US data is second tier.
Rates markets get a break from major supply. On a related note, markets will be watching the GE/FR 10yr spread which has so far widened every day this week, hitting a multi-week high on Thursday of 79bps as markets also absorbed OAT supply.
For more on latest developments see the European Breakfast Briefing.
Friday's supply prospects
As a reminder, it was another corp-driven session Thursday as three names placed a total of 4 lines for a consideration of EUR2.8bn, representing over 80% of the day's overall EUR3.65bn supply. The remainder came from yet another SSA tap (the 6th of the week with a running total of EUR8.8bn) and a small but juicy coupon SNP from Romanian FIG issuer CEC Bank SA (EUR300m came at 5.625%). That took us to EUR26.575bn (EUR25.6bn ex-HY corps) for the week so far, surpassing the EUR24bn average estimate. The EIB is set to put the finishing touches to a new EUR100m 5yr Digital Bond today, whilst HY name Arrow Global is also set to print a three-part across EUR & GBP. More opportunistic supply can’t be ruled out either.
** EIB EUR100m 5yr Digital Bond to price at m/s +34
** Arrow Global (Sherwood Financing) EUR450m NC1 FRN (E+550-575 IPTs), EUR250m NC2 FXD (7.75% area) and GBP250m NC2 FXD (9.75% area) three-part
** Azerion Group EUR300m max tap of the 10.029% Oct 2026 SSN
** G&O Maritime Group EUR75m senior secured bond issue
High-grade corporate borrowers continued their rush to the US market ahead of what is expected to be an abbreviated issuance Thanksgiving Week. Four issuers, including another “big six” bank, added USD4.2bn to this week’s haul, which now stands at USD36.75bn, topping the average weekly estimate for the thirty-fifth time this year. The deal of the day belonged to JPMorgan Chase, who in its sixth trip to the market this year, raised USD2.5bn through a 21NC20 fixed-to-floating rate deal. For more colour, see THE ENDGAME.
What to watch today - ECB speakers galore, PMIs
** Key Data: UK Oct Retail Sales (07:00), GE Q3 F GDP (07:00), FR Nov P Composite/Manufacturing/Services PMIs (08:15), GE Nov P Composite/Manufacturing/Services PMIs (08:30), EC Nov P Composite/Manufacturing/Services PMIs (09:00), UK Nov P Composite/Manufacturing/Services PMIs (09:30), US Nov P Composite/Manufacturing/Services PMIs (14:45) and US Nov F Uni of Michigan Sentiment (15:00)
** Key Events: ECB’s Lagarde (08:30), Guindos (08:40), Nagel (13:00), Villeroy (13:00) & Schnabel (15:45) speak, along with Fed’s Bowman (23:15)
** Auctions: No major term auctions scheduled for Friday 22nd Nov
All times GMT
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