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DAILY CLOSE: Primary rediscovers forward gear as YTD EUR supply hits one trillion

** The European primary bond market found its mojo again on Tuesday with issuers out in force and finding plenty of buyers for their deals. In the single currency we saw EUR18.65bn price via 15 separate lines (spearheaded by a EUR9bn two-part from the European Union), making it the biggest day in terms of number of tranches since 4-Jun (21) and the largest daily volume since 29-May (EUR24.95bn). That was also more than we saw price in the whole of last week (EUR11.363bn from 19 issues). Tuesday's deals were enough to push 2024 single currency issuance beyond EUR1tn, which is the second fastest we have ever hit the milestone having been pipped by 2020 when we surpassed it a day earlier (8-Jun). For the full details of all Tuesday's euro trades, which on the whole were swamped with investor orders, see IGM's DAILY EUR NICS & BOOKS

** The European Union was the volume booster on the day, as is usual when it hits the screens. Making its first visit of H2 2024, the bloc issued EUR9bn via new EUR5bn Oct 2029s and a EUR4bn (upped from EUR3bn) Oct 2054 tap which both landed 2bps inside initial talk and with 3bp NICs. The tranches were covered by 13.2x and 20x respectively at reoffer, compared to the average cover ratio of 14.48x across the EU's eight deals sold earlier in the year. Elsewhere in the SSA euro arena, The German Federal State of Rhineland Palatinate priced a EUR500m no grow 2yr LSA in line with m/s -7 area IPTs on an undisclosed book and Bpifrance extended its euro benchmark curve with a EUR1.25bn May 2034 line that saw demand of EUR4.2bn. Sterling issuance was headlined by the United Kingdom's well flagged GBP4.5bn (from bmk) Nov 2054 linker tap that saw books of GBP65.5bn - complemented by a GBP250m Feb 2026 line from BNG Bank that was set at SONIA m/s+20 from the outset. That wasn't all either, with global dollar supply also on offer thanks to JBIC (USD1.5bn 3yr; bks USD2.3bn) and IADB (USD2.5bn 10yr SDB; bks USD5.8bn). More issuance is on the way with EBRD (EUR 7yr green) and Baden-Wuerttemberg (EUR500m n grow 4yr LSA FRN) announcing mandates on the day. See the IGM SSA SNAPSHOT

** Following a Monday blank, the non-covered FIG market bust into life as seven issuers hit the euro market, five of which were opportunistic, as borrowers sought to maximise the window ahead of looming blackout periods and the seasonal slowdown. Tuesday's septet spanned the entire capital structure to raise EUR4.85bn on books last touted at EUR17.7bn, but which had peaked at EUR23.65bn. Grabbing the limelight in more ways than one, Commerzbank (EUR750m max 8NC7 SNP) priced its deal 10bps inside the curve after a EUR8bn peak book permitted a jumbo 45bps refinement off m/s +170 area IPTs, although mega keen pricing came at the expense of more than a few orders with books finalising at EUR3.5bn. Also going very well, ABN Amro Bank priced a EUR750m no grow 12NC7 Tier 2 just inside fair value after orders settled at EUR3.7bn while Banco BPM's EUR400m PNC7 AT1 was 8.5x covered at final terms and landed 65bps inside 7.875% area IPTs. In the insurance space, Groupama Assurances Mutuelles's PNC10 debut RT1 raised EUR600m on a EUR3.1bn book which should leave spare demand for La Mondiale to tap into who mandated banks for its own PNC10 RT1. See IGM's FIG SNAPSHOT

** The euro IG corporate market saw three visitors for the second day running on Tuesday as Aroundtown (EUR650m 5yr), Iberdrola (EUR750m 10yr green) and John Deere (EUR900m 8yr) emerged ahead of the looming earnings season and Thursday's US CPI print. Standing out was Aroundtown's first public euro deal since 2021 which emerged after calls on Monday and saw demand peak at EUR4.4bn before settling at EUR3.85bn having priced inside fair value after a 45bps refinement from IPTs to reoffer. Iberdrola extended its green senior curve via a EUR750m 10yr which also proved to be an economic outing, pricing with a zero NIC having been ramped in 37bps during the execution process on orders of EUR2.2bn (down sharply from EUR4bn peak). US name John Deere made a quick return to the euro market having only issued paper a couple weeks ago, with demand for the 8yr at EUR1.9bn (EUR2.5bn peak) and the NIC at 8bps. Joining the pipeline was unrated French issuer ITM Entreprises from the Groupement les Mousquetaires with a debut EUR300-500m 5yr that is to be used for the refinancing in part of the syndicated bridge facility provided in connection with the acquisition of Casino's stores. See the IGM CORP SNAPSHOT

** Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena was the only borrower to print any covered paper on Tuesday, issuing EUR750m via a 6yr Social CPT CB. Reoffer landed 5bp inside m/s +70 area guidance and orders came to a final EUR1.1bn+ (EUR1.2bn+ peak), covering the deal 1.47x. Aareal Bank mandated a EUR500m no grow issue in the form of a May 2029 HP which is expected to launch in the near future

** The latest CSPP update showed that the ECB's CSPP holdings fell by EUR724m to EUR305.757bn in the week to 05-Jul. The central bank also announced that holdings under its pandemic emergency purchase programme (PEPP) decreased by EUR988m to put total holdings at EUR1,658.765bn

** The IGM European Weekly Cheat Sheet provides proprietary intelligence on Euro primary market trends using various key data points in an easily digestible Excel spreadsheet. This includes Euro new issue volumes, average new issue concessions and book cover ratios across asset classes, as well as other key credit proxies

Wednesday's primary prospects


** Silfin NV (BBB-), guaranteed by SCR-Sibelco NV, hired BNP Paribas and KBC as Joint Global Coordinator and ABN AMRO, Commerzbank, HSBC and ING as Joint Bookrunners to arrange a series of fixed income investor calls 8-9 Jul. A EUR 500m no grow 6yr may follow, subject to market conditions. Proceeds will be allocated to General corporate purposes (including M&A and refinancing)

** ITM Entreprises from the Groupement les Mousquetaires (unrated), a French leading independent retailer, and owner of several retail brands in France, including the prominent INTERMARCHE, has mandated Credit Agricole CIB and Societe Generale as Global Coordinators, and BNP Paribas, CIC and Natixis as Joint Active Bookrunners to arrange a series of fixed income investor calls commencing on 9-Jul. A debut EUR300-500m 5yr senior unsecured fixed rate transaction is expected to follow, subject to market conditions. New issue proceeds will be used for General Corporate Purposes and for the refinancing in part of the syndicated bridge facility provided in connection with the acquisition of Casino's stores. Comps here


** The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (Aaa/AAA/AAA) mandated BNP Paribas, Credit Agricole CIB and NatWest Markets for a EUR 7yr fixed rate Green Bond

** The State of Baden-Wuerttemberg (Aaa/AA+) hired BayernLB, DekaBank, DZ BANK, LBBW and NORD/LB to lead manage its new EUR500m no grow 4yr floating rate Landesschatzanweisung

** The Government of the Emirate of Sharjah (Ba1/BBB-) acting through the Sharjah Finance Department (the Issuer), has engaged Credit Agricole CIB, HSBC, IMI-Intesa Sanpaolo and JP Morgan as Joint Global Coordinators for an inaugural EUR500m no grow 6.5y Reg S/144A senior unsecured sustainable bond offering


** Banca Sella Holding S.p.A mandated Mediobanca to act as Global Coordinator and Credit Agricole CIB, IMI-Intesa Sanpaolo and Mediobanca as Joint Bookrunners to arrange a series of fixed income investor calls starting 9-Jul. A EUR300m (exp) 5NC4 Senior Preferred transaction will follow, subject to market conditions. The notes are expected to be rated Ba3 / BBBL by Moody's / DBRS

** Piraeus Bank S.A mandated BNP Paribas SA as Sole Green Structurer and BNP Paribas SA, BofA Securities, Commerzbank, HSBC and IMI-Intesa Sanpaolo as Joint Bookrunners for its upcoming EUR Benchmark RegS Bearer Fixed Rate Reset Green Senior Preferred 5NC4 offering. The notes are expected to be rated Baa3 by Moody's

** La Mondiale mandated Natixis as Global Coordinator, and Barclays, BBVA, Natixis and Societe Generale as Joint Bookrunners to arrange a series of fixed income investor calls on 9-Jul. A EUR benchmark PNC10 Restricted Tier 1 offering, will follow subject to market conditions. The transaction is expected to be rated BBB by S&P


** Aareal Bank AG hired Danske Bank, DekaBank, J.P. Morgan, LBBW, NatWest Markets and UniCredit Bank as Joint Lead Managers for the issue of its upcoming EUR500m no grow May 2029 Mortgage Covered Bond (Hypothekenpfandbrief). The issue is expected to be rated Aaa (Moody s)

** Banca Popolare dell Alto Adige SpA recruited UniCredit as Global Coordinator and Erste Group, LBBW, Raiffeisen Bank International and UniCredit as Joint Bookrunners to lead manage a EUR300m no grow 7y Reg S Bearer Obbligazioni Bancarie Garantite - European Covered Bond (Premium) issue, backed by 100% Italian residential mortgages and expected to be rated AA

** Bendigo and Adelaide Bank Limited (A-/A-/Baa1) delegated Barclays, Natixis and UBS Investment Bank on a EUR Long 5y Reg S (Bearer form) Soft Bullet Covered Bond transaction, backed by prime Australian residential mortgages. The Covered Bond is guaranteed by Perpetual Corporate Trust Limited and is expected to be rated AAA/Aaa


** Greenalia S.A appointed Clarksons Securities AS, Pareto Securities AS, and Nordea Bank Abp, filial i Norge on a EUR220m 5y senior secured green bond issue

** BE Semiconductor Industries N.V. has hired MS as Global Coordinator and Sole Physical Bookrunner for a EUR350m 7NCL Reg S/144A Senior Unsecured Fixed Rate Notes issue, expected rating BB+/BB+. IPTs are 5-5.125%

** Vodafone Spain (Ba3/BB/BB+) employed Deutsche Bank, ING, UniCredit as Joint Global Coordinators and Physical Bookrunners and Banco Santander, DNB Markets, Intesa Sanpaolo as Passive Bookrunners for a EUR3.410bn (Equivalent Across TLB and Senior Secured Notes) EUR/USD benchmark 5NC2 (50%, 25%, 0%) dual-tranche Reg S/144a Senior Secured Notes due July-2029, rated Ba3/BB (RR3)/BBB- (RR2). IPTs are EUR 5NC2 SSN @ 6.500%-6.750% and USD 5NC2 SSN @ Mid-8%

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Tuesday's broader market developments

** EU stocks opened lower and lost further ground in the afternoon while CAC underperformed for a second day. OATs also came under pressure as fiscal concerns weighed against a backdrop of expected policy gridlock. US stocks remained buoyant though with S&P and Nasdaq both notching record highs. Prepared comments by Fed's Powell did little to alter near-term rate perceptions, leaving the probability of a Sep cut by the Fed at ~75%

** Stoxx600 -0.92% at worst. Energy weakest as BP fell after warning on margins and also as oil prices eased

** Govvies: EGBs yields up across the board, led by OATs (10yr FR/GE spread moved above 67bps having eased to 62bps Monday)

** Data:

- UK Jun BRC Sales Like-for-Like YoY missed at -0.5% (exp 0.8%, prev 0.4%)

- US Jun NFIB Small Business Optimism beat at 91.5 (exp 90.2, prev 90.5)

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