DAILY CLOSE: TotalEnergies latest corp to go big, TCC Group first to pull a deal in 2025
** It was a solid start to the new week for primary bond activity as a number of issuers emerged as market participants also digested German election results from the weekend. IG corporates accounted for the bulk of Monday’s EUR7.2bn single currency issuance as two names printed, spearheaded by a EUR3.15bn three-part from TotalEnergies which was supported by compatriot Pernod Ricard. It would have been three had Chinese borrower TMCC Group Holdings not postponed its EUR500m no grow 5yr green deal after setting final terms, with the issuer becoming the first IG name to pull a euro deal having opened books since Athene Global in Jul last year. Elsewhere, FIG and covered paper printed on the day, with full details of all the trades in the IGM DAILY EUR NICS & BOOKS. There was also a host of mandates announced on the day, including by the Kingdom of Spain, pointing to a busy couple of sessions that should push us close to the average weekly euro estimate of EUR32.5bn given in our latest issuance poll
** Becoming the latest IG corporate to launch a multi-tranche deal Monday was French utility company TotalEnergies which printed EUR3.15bn in the fourth largest deal the sector has seen in 2025. That was made up of EUR1bn 8yr, EUR850m 12yr and EUR1.3bn 20yr tranches and marked the company’s first euro senior bonds since 2020. Demand for the three lines peaked at EUR9.7bn and saw the 8yr squeezed in 35bps during the execution process to price with a 5bp NIC, whilst the longer deals saw 30bps of compression and 10bp NICs. TotalEnergies' compatriot and beverage company Pernod Ricard refreshed its well-stocked single currency curve with a EUR800m (from benchmark) 7yr line that landed 30bps inside IPTs and with a 5bps NIC on demand which peaked at EUR2.3bn before falling to EUR1.35bn. Offering up some rarity value on the day was TCC Group but it didn’t go to plan. The borrower finally emerged from the pipeline having wrapped up calls on 14-Feb with a debut EUR500m no grow 5yr green, which would have marked the first euro benchmark Chinese corporate deal since Nov 2021. However, having fixed the spread at m/s +165 from +180 area IPTs on demand communicated at a measured EUR800m, the company then announced it has “decided to temporarily hold off on proceeding with the proposed offering in order to uphold our broader responsibilities.” See here for the full message from TCC. Monday’s two which did price kicked off a week which market participants in our latest issuance poll expect to yield EUR9.5bn of euro IG corporate paper. The notion of another busy week has been supported by activity in the pipeline on Monday where Germany’s Metro AG (exp EUR500m 5yr) mandated a euro deal along with US pair PPG Industries (EUR 7yr) and Emerson Electric (EUR 6yr & 12yr two-part) which will add to the recent flurry of reverse yankee bonds. See the IGM CORP SNAPSHOT
** In non-covered FIG, just one issuer hit euros with Nationwide Building Society printing a EUR1bn (from bmk) via 5yr senior pref some 25bps inside m/s +100 area IPTs into a EUR2.5bn book. At least two more will follow this week with mandates announced for Mediocredito Centrale (EUR500m wng 5yr Social senior pref) and Arbejdernes Landsbank (EUR500m wng 5NC4 SNP) that will help advance the week further toward the EUR8bn average guess. Elsewhere, a recently busy sterling market saw Lloyds Banking Group raise GBP750m (from bmk) via a PNC5.25 AT1 into an undisclosed book after cutting 50bps off its 8% area starting point
** EUR2.25bn in covered paper was raised thanks to two borrowers on Monday, exceeding the lowest EUR2bn estimate we had in our weekly survey. The bulk of this came from CFF, which issued a two-part CB totalling EUR1.25bn (EUR750m Mar 2030 & EUR500m Mar 2035). These were priced into combined books of EUR3.2bn (EUR2.3bn / EUR900m). NICs of -1bp and 0bp were registered in the process. Meanwhile, National Australia Bank followed up on last week’s Australian issuances by pricing a EUR1bn Mar 2032 line at m/s +50, 5bp inside guidance (3bp NIC). On the day, MunHyp and Coop Pank announced mandates for a EUR500m no grow 10yr Green HP and EUR250m no-grow 4yr debut lines respectively. KHFC also emerged to announce it may sell its proposed 5yr social line on Tuesday after a recent roadshow
** There was no action from SSA issuers on Monday at all in terms of pricing but there were a couple of potentially large (volume-wise) mandate announcements. The pick of the duo has to be a proposed new 15yr (Jan 2041 maturity) from the Kingdom of Spain which marks the issuer's second outing in the syndicated markets so far this year and following on from a EUR15bn 10yr on the 22nd Jan. Notably on that occasion, the EUR143bn final book was down from a peak of EUR155bn. Joining the sovereign will be the Asian Development Bank (also for the second time this year) with a new 10yr benchmark to add to its already launched EUR1.75bn 7yr (1.71x cover, NIC -1bp).
** The IGM European Weekly Credit Overview is your comprehensive round-up of primary European new issue activity including pricing, order book information, new issue concessions and ISINs
Tuesday's primary prospects
SSA:
** The Kingdom of Spain (Baa1/A/A-/AH/A) mandated Barclays, Credit Agricole CIB, Goldman Sachs Bank Europe SE, HSBC, Nomura, and Societe Generale for a new EUR Obligacion del Estado syndicated 15yr benchmark Jan 2041
** The Asian Development Bank (Aaa/AAA/AAA) mandated BNP Paribas, J.P. Morgan, NatWest and UBS to lead manage a new EUR 10yr fixed rate benchmark
** The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (Aa3/A+) hired HSBC, J.P. Morgan and Societe Generale as Global Coordinators & Joint Active Bookrunners for a potential EUR dual-tranche offering, consisting of 7yr inaugural Green bond and a 12yr vanilla bond
Corp:
** US technology, software and engineering company Emerson Electric Co (A2/A) mandated BofA Securities, Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC, and J.P Morgan to arrange a series of fixed income investor calls to take place on 24-Feb. An SEC-registered EUR 6yr and 12yr SEC-registered two-part trade, as well as a USD benchmark, will follow
FIG:
** Mediocredito Centrale SpA mandated IMI-Intesa Sanpaolo as Sole Sustainability Coordinator and BNP Paribas, Credit Agricole CIB, IMI-Intesa Sanpaolo, Mediobanca and UniCredit as Joint Bookrunners to arrange a series of fixed income investor calls starting 24-Feb. A potential EUR500m no grow 5yr Senior Preferred Social Bond transaction is expected to follow. The issue is expected to be rated BBB-/BBB (S&P’s/DBRS)
Covered:
** Korea Housing Finance Corporation mandated BNP Paribas, HSBC, ING, Natixis and Standard Chartered Bank as Joint Bookrunners and Joint Lead Managers to arrange a series of fixed income investor meetings from 17-Feb. A EUR 5yr Social Covered Bond transaction, backed by Korean residential mortgages may follow. The deal is expected to be rated AAA by S&P and Aaa by Moody’s
** Muenchener Hypothekenbank eG mandated BNP Paribas, Commerzbank, DZ BANK, LBBW, NORD/LB and UniCredit as Joint Bookrunners to lead manage a EUR500m no grow 10yr Green Mortgage Covered Bond. The issue is expected to be rated Aaa by Moody`s
** The IGM Roadshow Calendar is your one-stop window on who, when and where. The calendar view provides an instant snapshot of which days are already earmarked for meetings in a convenient PDF format, with clickable links that take you directly to the known schedule
Monday's broader market developments
** European stocks opened lower and after a prolonged bounce returned to negative territory as the session approached the close. German stocks outperformed (Dax +0.4% vs Stoxx600 -0.47%) as markets digested the results of the German election and saw the positives in a Conservative victory over the far-right AfD – the possibility of a CDU/CSU/SPD "grand coalition" has helped avert a worst-case scenario of an anti-EU, anti-NATO AfD-led government. The final eurozone Jan CPI number was confirmed at 2.5% this morning, whilst German IFO numbers were mixed as the Business Climate & Current Assessment figures missed estimates and Expectations beat
** Stoxx600 gyrated either side of unchanged for most of the day but with a negative bias taking over after mid-afternoon. Utilities performed best (+1.48% with RWE and E.on both up over 2.5%) whilst materials and consumer discretionary lagged
** Govvies: Steepening bias seen across EGBs with German, Spain and France all with lower 2yr yields on the day. Italy underperformed in general, with a 6.5bp rise for its 10yr yield. Gilts were largely unch for the day
** Data:
- GE Feb IFO numbers Business Climate / Current Assessment / Expectations mixed at 85.2/85.0/85.4 (f/c 85.8/86.3/85.0, prev rev to 85.2/86.0/84.3)
- EC Jan F CPI YoY confirmed at 2.5%
- US Jan Chicago Fed National Activity Index marginally ahead of f/c at -0.03 (exp -0.05, prev revised up to 0.18)
- US Feb Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity missed at -8.3 (exp 6.4, prev 14.1)
What to watch Tuesday – Busy day for auctions and CB speak
** Key Data: GE Q4 F GDP (07:00), UK Feb CBI Retailing Reported Sales (11:00), US Dec FHFA House Price Index (14:00), US Feb Conf Board Consumer Confidence (15:00) and US Feb Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (15:00)
** Key Events: Fed’s Logan (09:20), Barr (16:45) & Barkin (18:00), ECB’s Nagel (10:00) & Schnabel (13:00) and BoE’s Pill (14:00) speak
** Auctions: UK to sell GBP1.6bn 2035 Linkers (10:00), IT to sell up to EUR2.75bn 2027 Bonds & EUR1.5bn 2036 Linkers (10:00), GE to sell EUR1.5bn 2053 Bunds (10:30) and US to sell USD70bn 5yr Notes (18:00)
** Earnings: 13 Stoxx600 & 14 S&P500 companies report
All times GMT
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