DAILY CLOSE: Trio make the most of issuance window

** Issuance windows have been hard to come by in recent weeks amid the escalating trade wars, but one presented itself on Monday with European stocks firmly in the green. Making the most of the window we had a trio of names with SSA borrower NIB joined by a couple of corporate names in the form of Gasunie and General Mills. The trio raised EUR2.5bn and kicked off a week which participants in our issuance poll expected to yield an average EUR13.5bn of (ex-HY) paper. The deals went well, and should the better tone hold on Tuesday then we would expect others to go live and launch a trade ahead of the looming ECB verdict which is followed by Easter holidays. For full details of Monday’s single currency trades, see IGM’s DAILY EUR NICS & BOOKS

** Nederlandse Gasunie (EUR 10yr) and General Mills Inc (EUR 7yr) represented the IG corporate arena on Monday, with the pair taking EUR750m apiece out the market via their opportunistic trades. The pair appeared to take a pragmatic approach to pricing with both issuers printing with 10bps NICs having started 45-50bps and 45bps back of fair value respectively, perhaps not a shock at a time where uncertainty remains in broader markets. The price revisions came after demand peaked at EUR3.1bn on General Mills and EUR3.2bn on Gasunie, but whilst all orders stayed on board for the former, Gasunie saw final orders drop considerably to EUR2bn at the final count. Monday’s activity comes after volatility limited corporate issuance to just EUR1.2bn from two issuers across the whole of last week, meaning we have already beaten that and put us on course to hit the average estimate of EUR3bn. Aussie duo AusNet (EUR 10yr benchmark) and Woolworths (EUR 7.5yr benchmark) remain in the pipeline after recent roadshows, but neither of those have decided that it is the time to go yet. Should we see another positive open on Tuesday though, they could be tempted to pull the trigger. See the IGM CORP SNAPSHOT

** Just EUR5bn is expected to surface in SSAs this week. If that transpires then it would be an even slower week than the one just gone (EUR9.25bn) where for the most part market participants were questioning whether up was actually down and 'would-be' issuers across all sub-sectors donned their respective 'tin hats'. Monday got off to a relatively fast start, in that a deal actually went live and successfully crossed the line, but at EUR1bn the new long 3yr line from the Nordic Investment Bank (NIB) is only putting a reasonably small dent in the weekly guesstimate. At best we would require another 4 of those to get to the average [estimate] but with Thursday being ECB day and Friday being a religious holiday (Good Friday) in a significant proportion of issuance's most important jurisdictions then the window really is only open until Wednesday. We are going to require 2 or 3 deals to surface on Tuesday morning to get the ball rolling quickly enough to reach the goal by midweek but with nothing in the immediate pipeline (not even an LSA tap barring the weeks old mandate from Queensland) the likelihood is looking slim at the moment. That said, risk assets across the board have had a pretty settling day with EGB (especially away from Germany) and Gilt yields falling significantly and with stocks waiting patiently to weigh in significant gains for the day. Let's see what surfaces Wednesday!

** The IGM European Weekly Credit Overview is your comprehensive round-up of primary European new issue activity including pricing, order book information, new issue concessions and ISINs

Tuesday's primary prospects

SSA:

** Queensland Treasury Corporation (Aa1/AA+), the central financing authority for the Queensland Government, mandated Citi, J.P. Morgan, RBC Capital Markets, UBS Investment Bank, and Westpac to arrange a series of fixed income investor meetings commencing 17-Mar. An inaugural EUR 10yr benchmark transaction may follow

Corps:

** Australian retail giant Woolworths Group Limited (Baa2/BBB) has mandated BNP Paribas, Citigroup, Goldman Sachs, HSBC and ING as Joint Bookrunners to arrange a series of European fixed income investor meetings 31-Mar until 2-Apr. A EUR benchmark 7.5yr senior unsecured offering may follow

** Australian diversified energy infrastructure business AusNet Services Holding Pty Limited (Baa1/BBB+) mandated BNP Paribas, Citigroup, ING and SMBC to arrange a series of fixed income investor meetings and calls commencing 2-4 Apr. A EUR 10yr benchmark senior unsecured transaction may follow

** Lagardere SA (unrated) hired BNP Paribas, Credit Agricole CIB, Natixis and Societe Generale as Global Coordinators along with CIC, Citi, Goldman Sachs Bank Europe SE and Morgan Stanley as Active Bookrunners calls Monday and Tuesday for EUR500m no grow 5yr bond offering

** The IGM Roadshow Calendar is your one-stop window on who, when and where. The calendar view provides an instant snapshot of which days are already earmarked for meetings in a convenient PDF format, with clickable links that take you directly to the known schedule

Monday's broader market developments

** European stocks started the week on the front-foot, spurred by news that Trump has paused import duties on a range of consumer electronics. Caution remained though with Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick indicating that these products may still face new levies in the near future. Showing that nerves remain, spot gold hit a new all-time high on the day at USD3245.75, whilst govvies were also well-bid. The US Dollar Index plummeted to a three-year low, dipping below the 100 mark and reflecting a broader loss of confidence in US assets. Goldman Sachs was the latest US bank to report earnings and saw its share price jump as stock traders posted their highest revenue haul on record

** Stoxx600 advanced as much as 2.8% and breached the psychological 500 level. Latest gains led by Energy and Tech stocks

** Govvies: EBG yields were lower across the board, with the periphery slightly outperforming the core. 10yr GER yields falls as much as 6.1bps versus 12.6bps on the IT equivalent

** Data:

• CH Mar Imports/Exports mixed at -4.3%/12.4% (f/c -2.1%/4.6%, prev 1.5%/-3.0%)
• JN Feb F Industrial Production revised down to 2.3% MoM (flash 2.5%)

What to watch Tuesday

** Key Data: UK Feb ILO Unemployment Rate (07:00), UK Feb Average Weekly Earnings (07:00), FR Mar F CPI (07:45), GE Apr ZEW Survey (10:00), EC Feb Industrial Production (10:00), US Apr Empire Manufacturing (13:30) and US Mar Import Price Index (13:30)

** Key Events: ECB Bank Lending Survey (09:00)

** Auctions: UK to sell GBP4bn 2035 Gilts (10:00), GE to sell EUR4.5bn 2030 Bobls (10:30) and FI to sell EUR1.5bn 2031 & 2055 Bonds (11:00)

** Earnings: 2 Stoxx600 & 7 S&P500 companies report. Latter includes Bank of America and Citigroup

All times BST

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